A YOUTHFUL TURKEY: AN ASSET OR A BURDEN FOR THE EU?
Ari Vatanen
ABHAber, Belgium
EU-Turkey News Network
May 24 2006
Demographic Trends across the Bosporus
Turkey is a youthful nation. The total fertility rate (average number
of children per woman) stands at 2.5, down from 3.5 in the 1970s and
is expected to decline further as economic prosperity increases.
This downward trend is accompanied by Turkey’s population growth rate
which has fallen to 1.4 percent per year according to the latest United
Nations figures. As of 2003, the country had 71 million inhabitants,
and is projected to have 98 million by 2050. In 2015 Turkey will
match the population of Germany and continue growing.
The declining German population exemplifies a general trend in the
EU. It is projected that the population of the EU will increase very
slightly for the next few years before beginning to decline. The EU’s
population will grow from 458 million in 2005 to 469.5 million in
2025 (+ 2 percent). In 2030, with 468.7 million inhabitants it will
be somewhat lower. The number of seniors (65-79 years) will start
to increase greatly in 2010 and continue to increase by a hefty 37.4
percent by 2030. As a comparison, in 2050 the median age in the U.S.
will be 36.2 whereas in Western Europe it will be 52.7. In 2002 the
respective ages were 35.5 and 37.7.
These numbers are on the whole well-known to decision makers, but
it pays to mention them, so as to highlight the demographic shift of
epic proportions Europe is about to experience.
Pros and Cons of immigration
In developed countries, immigrants differ from the general population
in two ways: they are either more or less skilled than the native
population. By attracting skilled immigrants, the host country can
specialize in activities where it has a competitive advantage. On the
other hand, less skilled immigrants lower the costs of many goods and
services by accepting lower wages. In some cases immigrants do jobs
that domestic workers shy away from. On the balance, most economists
agree that the economic impact of immigration is broadly neutral to
mildly positive. Immigrants may also be unusually entrepreneurial
and thus stimulate the economy in various ways. It is a fallacy
to say that immigrants steal jobs: they also create jobs by being
entrepreneurial and adding to demand for goods and services. The idea
that there are only a specific amount of possible jobs in a given
economy is a dangerous and persistent myth. In a flexible economy,
the labor market adjusts to an increase in the supply of workers and
more jobs are created. We do not live in a static world.
Opportunities and dynamism are created by demolishing walls of
all kinds!
However, while the population as a whole benefits from immigration,
those competing directly for jobs with immigrants do not. In the
United States, a National Research Council report concluded in 1997
that immigration had reduced the wages of groups competing with
immigrants by 1-2 percent. Actually, the people most affected by
new immigrants were immigrants who had arrived earlier. All in all
however, immigration makes business and most people better off and
some of the poor poorer.
According to the European Commission, adverse demographic change may
push up public spending by five to eight percentage points in the EU15
by 2040. It can also be feared that an older EU will be less innovative
and less adaptable. However, the challenges of globalization,
acutely felt in the EU of today, are not going to go away. Thus,
an EU incapable of redefining its role, renewing its competitive
advantage and seizing opportunities as they arise, is doomed to
progressive decline. If the EU refuses to seize the opportunity of
welcoming hard-working immigrants, especially from a partner country
like Turkey, it risks dooming itself to economic decline.
Drowned in a Wave of Turks?
Can the EU reverse its demographic trend? Encouraging the immigration
of younger workers might be a partial solution. But UN estimates
show that Germany, for example, would need to take in 3.6 million
immigrants a year between 2000 and 2050 , which clearly is not
feasible. Therefore, resolving the demographic crisis requires a
combination of measures: immigration, incentives for families to
have more children, incentives for people to stay active in work and
raising productivity so that less people are needed to do the same job.
Even though immigration is not a miracle cure for rejuvenating Europe’s
populations, it can offer a partial solution and help open up critical
bottlenecks. Turkey is a true resource in this sense.
Allowing for large-scale immigration from Turkey would provide EU
societies with much-needed additional workers, entrepreneurship and
stimuli at all levels of society. So one can argue that the EU needs
to turn the demographic tide, but do we risk a flood of immigrants
from Turkey? Would granting EU membership to Turkey be like jumping
out of the frying pan and into the fire?
A report by the Independent Commission on Turkey gave a long-term
immigration estimate of 2.7 million people moving into the EU from
Turkey in the long term. This would represent about 0.5 percent of
the EU population. Of course if the migrants all choose to cluster in
already existing Turkish communities, it would have more of a regional
impact. On the other hand, the report mentions that future Turkish
migration is likely to include professional and well-educated people,
thus reducing integration difficulties encountered by the unskilled
immigrants of the past. It is also likely that Turkish EU membership
could lead to greater mobility among migrants inside the EU with some
moving back to Turkey for good as its economy grows and prospers.
Forecasts and statistics are not an exact science, so immigration
figures cannot be known for sure. However, if Europeans are truly
afraid of being swamped with immigrants, they can deal with the
perceived problem without barring Turkey’s membership. First, the
EU can legitimately put in place lengthy transition periods during
which immigration is restricted. Second, by helping Turkey develop
its economy, opportunities in the country will grow and thus reduce
the desire of Turks to emigrate.
We should not be afraid of Turks taking jobs from local workers –
if we reform our economies, we can reduce unemployment. However,
if we say ‘no’ to reforms and economic dynamism, we say yes to high
unemployment – with or without Turkish membership!
Is a Dynamic Turkey a Competitive Threat?
Many Europeans feel at a loss in the face of globalization. Almost 20
million EU citizens are currently unemployed. European countries have
the shortest work weeks and longest holidays in the world, reflecting
a preference for leisure over work. But the unemployment rate, which
is about double the United States, is an incorruptible witness to
the inadequacies of European labor markets. Far too many of those who
actually would prefer to work, long or short days, cannot find a job.
When high unemployment is compounded by globalization challenges,
the result is skepticism towards international trade. It also fosters
Euro-skepticism – as seen in the referendums on the draft European
constitution – and risks giving rise to xenophobia among the least
fortunate Europeans. In a gloomy atmosphere it is easy to resort to
blaming others for one’s problems. For instance China, which has been
the butt of our fears and protectionism, is stronger than ever. In
China’s case, it is necessary for the EU to decide if it should
specialize in t-shirts or jumbo jets – the EU can’t have it both ways!
The same goes for Turkey. Having a vibrant and youthful economy next
to the EU should be embraced by Europeans with open arms. According
to estimates, full access to the internal market, including for
agricultural products not covered by the Customs Union of 1996 and
the elimination of administrative and technical trade barriers could
lead to bilateral trade increasing by around 40 9 percent, Yes, EU
companies will invest in the country and yes, some jobs will move
to Turkey. But for this reason, we will remain competitive in the
international marketplace. Western European companies will also be
able to export factors of production to their Turkish subsidiaries
thus creating job opportunities in their countries too.
The future competitiveness of current EU countries lies in their own
hands. Globalization will not go away by closing our eyes, but we
need to prepare ourselves better. And as trade, on the whole, is a
win-win game, the EU would stand to benefit greatly from a “tigerish”
Turkish economy.
The Reform Process in Turkey
Turkey is often accused of being undemocratic and that this stems
from its “unwesterness”. One can’t deny that Turkey has a poor human
rights record with torture, religious and ethnic intolerance, as well
as serious problems with respect to freedom of speech. Unfortunately
not all negativity towards Turkey is unfounded – but fortunately –
it is increasingly less so by the day.
In fact, the above-mentioned side of Turkey is not an argument for
denying Turkey membership. On the contrary, the very possibility of
becoming a respected member of the EU has already set in motion a wide
and profound process with undisputable results. Progress achieved
to date includes a large number of constitutional amendments and
legislative EU-related “harmonization packages”. The death penalty
has been abolished, there are now better safeguards against torture
and ill-treatment, and freedom of speech is advancing in spite of
“cultural inertia” in the justice system. The penal code, which entered
into force in June 2005, is by no means flawless, but undoubtedly an
improvement. The abolishment of the notorious State Security Courts
was also an important step. The duties, powers and functioning of
the National Security Council (NSC) have been substantially amended,
bringing civil-military relations closer to EU levels. Finally, Kurds
have also seen remarkable improvements through the lifting of the
state of emergency that curtailed basic liberties in the southeast
for 25 years. At long last they can also now use their language in
educational and media contexts.
The EU negotiators are tough and prepared to blow the whistle when
needed. There is no chance of Turkey entering the European Common
House with dirty shoes. Membership negotiations are designed to
entice countries to comply with the rules of the EU and genuinely
show that it shares common values. Therefore, Turkey will not enter
the EU before it has genuinely reformed its policies and shows that
its mind-set is compatible with the EU’s.
What about the charge that Turkey is not “Western”? Turkey shares
traits with both European and Middle Eastern cultures. This
“un-Westernness” of Turkey would constitute an enormous asset
for the current EU. During the row over Danish cartoons depicting
Prophet Mohammed, Turkey acted as a moderating voice. Yes, there
were demonstrations on Turkey’s streets, but they did not degenerate
into violence.
The fact that Turkey now has a conservative Muslim prime minister who
staunchly defends democratic values is heartening and serves as an
example to all Islamic countries. Fundamentalists exploit the misery
of people and try to push the Muslim world back to the dark ages, a la
Iran and Saudi Arabia. Our best allies in reversing these frightening
scenarios are moderate Muslims and we have to offer our unwavering
support to their aspirations towards democracy. The consequences of
the EU accepting Turkey as its member – or that of the EU failing to
do so – can determine world stability.
A Youthful Turkey – A Democratic and Prosperous Friend
Turkey is not yet ready to join the EU, nor is the EU mentally
prepared to allow it in. However, the ongoing reform course and
ever- increasing contacts between the EU nations and Turkey is set
to change the picture. What is more, I feel very optimistic about
Turkey embracing democratic values. This optimism can be spelled YOUTH.
The young generation is going to shape the Turkey of tomorrow. Their
modern views of the world contrast sharply with the nationalistic
and almost sectarian views of the military leaders of their parent’s
generation. For Turkey to take a full step into modernity, it does
not have to disavow its religion, drop its folklore or substitute
Big Macs for kebabs. The mental change which is needed is that
Turkey must embrace the idea of being both European and Turkish. The
European dimension implies tolerance for differing opinions as well
as readiness to compromise at the negotiating table for the common
good. The painful process of being honest about one’s history is also
an indispensable stage on the way to modernity. To admit that perhaps
more than one million Armenians were murdered with premeditation,
is tough, but inescapable, for Turkey to be at ease with itself and
its neighbors. The youth of Turkey is far less sensitive, and thus
far more sensible, about being honest about past misdeeds.
Establishing a new understanding of volunteerism for Turkish youth
and encouraging participatory democracy in youth’s everyday lives
is of utmost importance in bridging the gap between Western European
and Turkish societies. Tourism and student exchange programs can also
play an important role.
Europe stands to gain in many ways by saying yes to Turkish EU
membership. For the emerging European Security and Defense Policy
(ESDP), Turkey’s considerable military capabilities, not least thanks
to the country’s favorable demographics, are a clear asset. Turkey’s
entry into the EU would also stimulate trade and the EU would benefit
from the strong dynamics of the economy. On the other hand, immigration
should not be feared, but seen as an opportunity for European countries
to cope with the consequences of aging populations. Attracting
immigrant workers would help keep activities in Europe, which otherwise
risk escaping to more populous areas in the world.
Certainly, the whole world cannot join the EU, but the symbolic
step of letting a major Muslim country – the keen and reform-willing
Turkey – become an equal partner, means Europeans embrace their fellow
human beings. The quarrels of earlier generations should not prevent
Europeans from realizing the potential of the citizens of today and
tomorrow. Let us all thus see further than the next elections and
think about the future we leave to our children.