MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COURIER: BLOWS TO IRAN MAY PROVOKE OPERATIONS BETWEEN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN
Yerevan, May 25. ArmInfo. Blows to Iran may provoke operations between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, it is said in Aleksey Matveyev’s article,
published in the Russian “Military-Industrial Courier”.
According to Matveyev, a n unexpected power scenario may appear in
the Karabakh problem solution where Iran, USA and, possibly, other
countries of the region may be involved in addition to Armenia and
Azerbaijan. This scenario is connected with the beginning of possible
operations of Pentagon against Iran under the stipulation that
Azerbaijan will come out here as its ally as it was already during
Iraq occupation. In reply to such service, the USA will support Baku
in attempts to solve the Karabakh problem in military way. In its
turn, Baku, having seen the Americans favour to it, could have secret
contacts with Pentagon.
As the author notes, Aliyev welcomes the Iranian contacts even
outwardly. On the other hand, he has no reasons to quarrel with
Tehran, after all, a mutually beneficial cooperation is being
developed with the neighbor, including natural gas transportation
from Iran to Azerbaijan. Iran and Azerbaijan are connected with
ethnic ties (about 16 mln Azerbaijanians live in Iran, that is twice
more than the number of Azerbaijan itself ). Aliyev-younger follows a
different-vector policy, which means that good-neighbor relations of
Baku with Tehran are supported by Moscow and do not break the safety
balance, though Americans, interested in strengthening the influence
on Caspia, would like to break it. On the other hand, Aliyev assumes
that Americans may be on the side of Baku in the Karabakh conflict
in response to loyalty. It is quite clear that it cannot be expected
from Moscow. Aliyev had never refused from the American assistance and
hopes for more, i.e. the USA assistance in the recreation of country’s
integrity. However, no efficient assistance, including the military
one, to Baku is observed yet from the Americans. In case of operations
beginning against Karabakh and Armenia, it will need an international
support. Washington can render such assistance. The author dos not
rule out that in case of entering into an alliance between Baku
and Washington and operations beginning from the USA against Iran,
Tehran will help Armenia in the struggle against Azerbaijan Army.
According to the source, the 2006 military budget of Azerbaijan is $600
mln, budget of Armenia – $150 mln. According to the western sources,
number of Azerbaijan’s AF is 69 900 (people). Meanwhile, rather great
forces are concentrated in Karabakh, i.e. 20 000 – 25 000 people of
crew, 316 units of tanks, 332 of artillery (122 mm and higher).