New Anatolian, Turkey
May 29 2006

Hurricane on Turkey’s horizon
Recep Guvelioglu

rguvelioglu@thenewanatolian.com29 May 2006

Weather forecasts are very important not only for our daily lives but
also in politics. This summer will be very hot in domestic and
foreign affairs, and this fall I’m expecting a hurricane that will
hit international affairs hardest. Turkey will be particularly
vulnerable to enormous international waves. Let’s take a quick look
at our foreign relations situation.

Cyprus and the EU

The parliamentary elections in southern Cyprus ended with a victory
for the Working People’s Progressive Party (AKEL) and the centrist
Democratic Rally Party (DISY). In another words, Greek Cypriots
supported the current leftist coalition. Tassos Papadopoulos said
that there will not be any change in their policy towards the Cyprus
problem. The leftist mentality in Hellenic states like Greece and
Cyprus is completely different than what the terminology of socialism
dictates. Greek socialists are more nationalist than others. Andreas
Papandreou’s Panhellenic Socialist Movement Party (PASOK) in Greece
was the perfect example of my view. Tassos Papadopoulos’ government
was, is and will be the same type. Even though European Union
countries are irritated by the results of the elections, they will
not alter their support for the Greek Cypriots.

The Cyprus issue is currently dominating membership negotiations
between the EU and Turkey. The EU Commission, which will gather in
October, may suspend membership negotiations between the EU and
Turkey. There are two reasons for this:

1. The Turkish government has not ratified an additional protocol in
its Parliament. This pertains to the recognition of southern Cyprus’
Greek administration as the “Cypriot Republic.”

2. The Turkish government has so far not permitted Greek Cypriot
vessels and planes to use Turkish ports and airports. That’s why
Michael Leigh, director general for enlargement with the European
Commission, openly said that Turkey must fulfill its responsibilities
as noted in the additional protocol. Leigh added that most of the
arrangements that the EU has requested regarding Northern Cyprus have
been realized. Ankara says that after the embargo of Turkish Republic
of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is lifted and the isolation policy is
stopped, Turkey can recognize the Greek administration. The EU, on
the other, claims that this should have been declared before the
decision to start negotiations between Turkey and the EU.

Representatives of the EU will go to the island and meet with Talat
and Papadopoulos. Talat’s attitude towards the Greek Cypriots and the
EU has drastically changed. Now he is getting closer to Denktas.

Negotiations between the Greek and Turkish sides of the island on
“daily issues” have also reached a dead end. On the other hand United
Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s term is going to end in the
near future. In short, the Cyprus issue is at a stalemate. There will
not be any solution if it goes on like this. Since it dominates
Turkish-EU relations, negotiations for membership are at a dead end
as well. In October this issue will explode.

Iraq

There has been an undeclared civil war between Islamic sects (Sunnis
and Shiites) in Iraq. But it may turn out to be a clash between
ethnic groups. The process of establishing an independent Kurdish
state is at a final stage. Technical details have been completed for
this. If they put Kirkuk into their domination area they will declare
the city their capital. The Turkmens are completely out of the
picture. They will be mentioned as a minority like the 200,000
Armenians. The future of Iraq will be clearer in the fall.

Iran

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Iran seems to have passed the stage
of enrichment of uranium, and they are in a position to implement a
missile system to deliver a nuclear bomb. It is at least an irritable
situation for Turkey to have such an erratic neighbor with a nuclear
capability. Israel, as the probable first target of this nuclear
threat, is furious. The U.S. seems to be moving towards using force
to stop the process. But due to Russian and Chinese objections, there
is no chance of Washington getting a go-ahead to intervene in Iran
from the UN Security Council. The council may adopt a decision
backing a nuclear nonproliferation treaty in general, and Uncle Sam
may interpret the council’s general decision as a greenlight for
armed intervention on Tehran’s soil. It is probably easy to bomb
Iran’s nuclear facilities, but to stop their retaliation in terrorist
activities is almost impossible and unpredictable.

The question is when will it happen and what will Turkey do.
We will see by the end of this summer.

These are some of the sources for possible hurricanes that will
affect Turkey.