ARMENIA: HAVING THEIR CAKE AND EATING IT TOO
By William Dunbar

The Messenger, Georgia
May 31 2006

Outside every public building in Georgia the flag of Europe flutters
away next to the five crosses of Georgia – a testament to the nation’s
western ambitions. But Georgia is paying a price for its occidental
inclination; the drive west has incurred the wrath of the northern
neighbor, and with every step Georgia takes towards ‘Euro-Atlantic
structures’ a reprisal is issued from Moscow. Be it visa regimes,
embargoes on wine and mineral water, or increasingly vocal support for
the separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia-like a jealous
lover-seems determined to punish Georgia for getting too friendly
with the west.

The Georgian authorities are at pains to point out just how far the
country has come on the road to western integration, and significant
progress has certainly been made. Inclusion in the new European
Neighborhood Policy (ENP), the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA)
and the solidarity shown Georgia by Dick Cheney at the recent Vilnius
summit of Baltic-Black Sea nations-not to mention last year’s Bush
visit, and the praise he heaped on the ‘ beacon of democracy’-all of
these are achievements the Georgian government can be proud of.

However, each of these achievements has been accompanied by
deterioration in the relationship with Russia. Both the Russian and
Georgian authorities are trapped in a lose-lose situation. They each
see influence in Georgia as being like a cake: if the West gets more
cake then Russia gets less, there is only so much cake to go round,
after all. This ‘zero-sum’ thinking is leading both nations into a
spiral of increasing hostility, damaging them economically and/or
tarnishing their international image, and it seems it can only
get worse.

Yet there is a prime example to the south reminding us that influence
doesn’t have to be like a cake at all. Armenia is living proof that
you can have it both ways. Armenia-a small, impoverished and landlocked
country of some three million people-is home to the second largest US
embassy in the world (Iraq is number one). Little Armenia receives more
US government aid per capita than or almost anywhere else (including
Georgia), it is also signed up to the ENP and the MCA. And how are
Armenian/Russian relations? Well they’re just peachy. No visa regime,
no trade embargoes, no fiery rhetoric, and Armenian cognac is still
readily available in Moscow. The historical hatred they continue to
bear towards their Turkic neighbors notwithstanding, the Armenians
are quietly getting along with the real powers that be; they even
manage to have friendly relations with Iran and still get a huge
slice of military assistance from the US.

Armenia should be a lesson to both Russia and Georgia, politics doesn’t
have to be a zero sum game, and everyone can be a winner. You really
can have your cake and eat it too.