Armenian, Azeri leaders may sign peace accord at Bucharest talks –
Yerevan daily

Azg, Yerevan
30 May 06

Text of report by Armenian newspaper Azg on 30 May headlined
“Mediators will not agree with a second Rambouillet”

It cannot be ruled out that under pressure from the [OSCE] mediators,
the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents will reach an agreement in
Bucharest [early June].

Prior to the Rambouillet meeting [between the Azerbaijani and Armenian
presidents in February 2006], Azg newspaper ruled out the signing of
an agreement on a settlement of the Karabakh conflict, and this
happened. We gave a reason as well. Azerbaijani society is not ready
to any scenario of a settlement based on compromises. If a document of
this kind was signed, the country’s president would have had serious
problems after returning home.

What a situation we have before the Armenian-Azerbaijani meeting in
Bucharest? It is possible that not an agreement, but serious progress
will be achieved. Unlike Rambouillet, the international community
exerts serious pressure on both sides for reaching an agreement. We
can say that the co-chairmen [of the OSCE Minsk Group] have their
countries’ authorities approval to bring the two sides’ positions
closer. The fact that not only the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen but
also senior officials of these countries’ foreign ministries have paid
a visit to the region testifies to this.

They visited only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but not Karabakh. It means
that they held concrete talks with the Armenian and Azerbaijani
officials involved in the [Karabakh] negotiations. This was not a
fact-finding visit, and it was not unexpected that the announcement
about a meeting of the two countries’ presidents in Bucharest was made
after the visit. What does it mean? It means that the mediator
countries hope to reach a specific agreement and are not planning the
second Rambouillet. Probably, Armenia and Azerbaijan have to agree
with some changes to a settlement scenario proposed in Rambouillet.

Here is another question. Will the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents
compromise under pressure from the mediators? Will a settlement
agreement be signed? True, this will be a difficult problem for both
[Armenian President] Robert Kocharyan and [Azerbaijani President]
Ilham Aliyev. It is impossible to give an exact answer to this
question. Though we can say that a refusal to sign any kind of
document will be very difficult for them as this will have negative
results. But what kind of document has been offered to the sides?
According to media claims about what the Armenian and Azerbaijani
presidents, the foreign ministers and other officials have been told,
the principles of the Karabakh settlement are approximately as
follows. Armenia will pull out from five districts neighbouring
Nagornyy Karabakh (there are seven [occupied by Armenia] of them). In
return, Azerbaijan will recognize the right of the people of Nagornyy
Karabakh for self-determination and agree to hold a referendum
there. Nagornyy Karabakh will get a transition status till the
referendum.

In his recent TV address, the Armenian president said that the sides
could not reach an agreement on one issue. According to the western
media, this could be the issue of Kalbacar District [occupied by
Armenia].

According to available information, Robert Kocharyan and especially
Ilham Aliyev will have serious political problems in their countries
if they agree with these principles. Some principles of a document are
completely unacceptable for Armenia, and others for Azerbaijan.

But the Azerbaijani president is in more difficult situation from this
point of view because if Armenian society is a bit ready to the idea
of returning the occupied territories in return for security
guarantees, Azerbaijani society does not want to hear about Karabakh’s
self-determination. Unlike Rambouillet, where we ruled out the signing
of any agreement, in Bucharest we cannot rule out that an agreement
may be signed because of international pressure.