Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
June 2, 2006 Friday

PARDON THE EXPRESSION

by Arkady Dubnov

A MEETING OF THE CIS COUNCIL OF DEFENSE MINISTERS IN BAKU ENDORSED
PRIORITIES AND PRINCIPAL EVENTS IN REALIZING THE CONCEPT OF MILITARY
COOPERATION BETWEEN CIS COUNTRIES; At the meeting of the CIS Council
of Defense Ministers in Baku, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said:
“Peace, security, and law in the Caspian Sea should be maintained by
the coastal states.” This was how Moscow responded to rumors that
Washington wants an American radar installation in the region.

Defense ministers voted to extend the powers of Major-General Sergei
Cheban, current commander of the Collective Peacekeeping Force in the
Georgian-Abkhazian conflict area, for another six months. When it was
over, Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Sergei
Ivanov called the meeting “another step to advancement of military
cooperation and facilitation of trust and mutual understanding
between CIS countries.”

Ivanov’s phrase of “trust and mutual understanding” was certainly
made to sound quixotic by the absence of the Armenian military from
the Baku conference. The Azeris did not invite them to the meeting,
because they view the Armenian military as personae non grata and
their country as an “occupier.”

Ivanov made an even more interesting statement in Baku. “As for
Nagorno-Karabakh,” he said, “I don’t rule out the possibility that
peacekeepers may appear there soon – in order to guarantee
realization of the political agreements that I’m sure will be signed
sooner or later.”

“This so-so situation – if you’ll pardon the expression – cannot
last,” Ivanov said.

This mention of Nagorno-Karabakh will probably require a
clarification because the matter concerns the Azeri-Armenian conflict
area, actually Armenian-occupied territories of Azerbaijan around the
enclave.

But this wasn’t what attracted observers’ attention. Ivanov made his
statement in Baku, the same day that Ukrainian and Azeri defense
ministers Anatoliy Hrytsenko and Safar Abiyev discussed establishing
a GUAM peacekeeping contingent (both countries are GUAM members).
Moscow is not going to like it if and when initiators of the idea
offer their services in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution.

Ivanov said, “Peace, security, and law in the Caspian Sea should be
maintained by the coastal states.” This was how Moscow responded to
rumors that Washington wants an American radar installation in the
region. Ivanov was diplomatic enough to add that he “doesn’t know
anything of any such plans.”

Armenian President Robert Kocharjan and Azeri President Ilham Aliyev
are expected to meet under the aegis of the OSCE Minsk Group in
Bucharest on June 5. Moscow is already troubled. Even if Yerevan and
Baku find a compromise, not everyone will agree with participation of
the Russian military in the international peacekeeping contingent
(probably under the UN aegis) in the conflict area.

Azeri Foreign Ministry called Ivanov’s statement on peacekeepers
“considerate” and took it as an indication of Moscow’s eagerness to
see the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolved. Ex-president of
Azerbaijan Ajaz Mutalibov called the statement “positive” as well.
Radio Echo of Moscow quoted Mutalibov as accepting “the possibility
that Russia is just the peacekeepers neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia
will have any objections to.”

Official Yerevan’s reaction to the news from Baku is not known at
this point. Alexander Iskanderjan, a prominent political scientist,
in the meantime is quite skeptical of Ivanov’s words concerning
deployment of peacekeepers and his confidence that “the situation…
cannot last.” “On the contrary, the status quo may last long yet,”
Iskanderjan said. “In any case, no serious politician in Yerevan is
going to propose a compromise with Baku before the parliamentary
election scheduled for 2007 and presidential scheduled for 2008.”
“Moreover, Moscow itself needs resolution of the conflict postponed
for as long as possible because the advantages this resolution will
give either side will inevitably weaken Russia’s influence with the
southern part of the Caucasus,” Iskanderjan said.

Source: Vremya Novostei, June 1, 2006, p. 3

Translated by A. Ignatkin