IMPLEMENTATION OF KARS-AKHALKALAKY PROJECT IS STILL DOUBTFUL

PanARMENIAN.Net
07.06.2006 GMT+04:00

Official Tbilisi proposes to recalculate profitability of
Kars-Akhalkalaky project, which is fraught with the strengthening of
Armenia’s transport isolation.

Something has again come between the initiators of Kars-Akhalkalaky
railroad construction project. This can be judged by the recent
announcement of the general manager of “Georgian Railroad” company
Irakly Ezugbaya, through whom the Georgian party openly declared the
distrust towards Turkish experts who were committed to carry out the
feasibility study of the project. Georgians suppose that Turks and
Azeris are trying to economize on them.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ To all appearances the participants of the project
have quite essential contradictions. If things were that serious,
it would not be necessary to cancel the trilateral meeting of the
ministers of transport which was planned in the beginning of June
in Baku. It was expected that during the meeting in Baku parties
would give final approval to the feasibility study and would decide
on the funding and sign appropriate decisions. The newly aggravated
contradictions do not allow to believe in the optimistic forecasts of
Ilham Aliev who had promised to announce the start of works by the end
of this year. In Baku and Ankara they are doing everything in order
to smooth the situation. Azeri and Turkish press calls attention on
the fact that ministers are nevertheless ready to meet and continue
negotiations.

Preliminary agreement on holding a meeting has already been
reached. But now it is already clear that it will not be a final, but
a regular meeting and it is still very early to talk about the final
stage of works on the project. To all appearances during the second
round of ministers’ consultations the Georgian party will raise the
issue of the necessity to announce a new tender for the feasibility
study. “If the Turkish party is not able to carry out feasibility
study, it can be done by Georgia”, Irakly Ezugbaya recently said.

The Georgian party has notices contradictions in the calculations
presented by the tender-winner Turkish “Exel Domonic” company. Company
experts presented two versions of calculations – for 365 and 420
million dollars. The difference is connected with the expenses on the
development of Georgian railroad infrastructures. Turks and Azeris are
insisting on the point that funds necessary for the infrastructures
should not be included in the main budget of the project and should
be found already in the course of project implementation. It is
quite evident that Ankara and Baku are striving to begin railroad
construction as soon as possible in order to prevent the start of
the non-functioning Kars-Gyumri railroad, exploitation of which will
make Armenia a transit country. It is fairly obvious that if certain
progress is observed in the opening of Armenian-Turkish border, no
one will give money for the implementation of the project, which is
doubtful in all senses. Georgians, noticing political implications in
their partners’ activities, wish to have guarantees that the project
will not be stopped in case the situation in the region changes. This
is why, Tbilisi demands to begin construction works only when all
the expenses are approved and necessary funds are found.

Besides, Georgians have an impression (to all appearances objective)
that their partners are trying to economize exactly on those sections
of the project that touch with Georgia. For the construction of
the 68km long section of the road running through the territory of
Turkey it is planned to spend much more money than the 30km long
Georgian section.

Insufficient amount of money is also planned to spend for the
renovation works of the 160km long railroad from Akhalkalaky to
Tbilisi. What is more important is that the budget for the wheel-change
station, which will be built on the border between the two countries,
is too small. (As it is known, in Turkey, unlike Georgia and Azerbaijan
the railroad lane is of European standard, which is much narrower
than that in the countries of the former Russian empire.)

Georgians also doubt about the validity of forecasts.

Turkish experts suppose that the first year’s turnover of goods
will be 2-3 million and will reach 8 million in the course of
time. But this calculation has been done taking into consideration
the non-functioning of Kars-Gyumri railroad. Thus, initiators of the
project become interested in the blockade of Armenia.

Otherwise profitability of the project will become doubtful. But
Georgians, unlike Azeris and Turks want to have a concrete idea about
what will happen when there is alternative to the built railroad. As
for the too optimistic forecasts announced in Baku and Ankara, it
looks like Georgians have learned to distinguish propaganda from real
pragmatic forecasts.