NAGORNO-KARABAKH: NO LONGER ABSTRACT AND DISTANT FOR EU

Radio Free Europe, Czech Rep.
June 8 2006

A gathering of Black Sea leaders in Bucharest, on June 5, also served
as the venue for the latest set of talks between the presidents of
Armenia and Azerbaijan about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, legally
part of Azerbaijan but controlled by ethnic Armenian separatists since
1994. Armenian leader Robert Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart,
Ilham Aliyev, met twice. No progress was reported, but the region
is growing in importance for a power once relatively remote from the
South Caucasus, the European Union. RFE/RL Armenian Service director
Hrair Tamrazian and Azerbaijani Service correspondent Kenan Aliyev sat
down with Peter Semneby, the European Union’s Special Representative
for the South Caucasus about Nagorno-Karabakh, and asked why Brussels
is showing greater interest in Nagorno-Karabakh and what the European
Union is doing to help promote a resolution to this frozen conflict.

RFE/RL: What is your outlook on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Are
you hopeful the issue will be resolved?

Peter Semneby: I’ve been asked very often in the last few months
whether I’m an optimist or a pessimist regarding Nagorno-Karabakh
and relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. I would say that I’m
neither. I don’t want to say that I’m an optimist, because so far
it’s always been the pessimists who have been proven right in this
conflict. Still, one should always maintain hope, and I’m still
hopeful that this conflict will be resolved soon. This is a very
good moment for the region. It’s a time when there are no major
domestic considerations in the countries. It’s also a time when the
European Union is taking a much stronger interest in the region, in
both countries, which is demonstrated by the inclusion of all of the
Southern Caucasus into the European Neighborhood Policy. Of course,
the European Union does this in the anticipation that the region will
develop together and that the links will be reestablished between
the countries, and that joint products will be developed that can
benefit the further development and the prosperity of all countries
in the region.

Doing More…

The army of the self-declared republic of Nagorno-Karabakh in exercises
in 2005 (Photolur)RFE/RL: The International Crisis Group, a think tank,
recently came out with a report urging the EU to be more engaged in
conflict resolution in the region because it has the best leverage
there, both financially and institutionally. Do you agree that the
EU should put a priority on this issue?

Semneby: There is a lot that the European Union can do. There was
also a political signal sent when the mandate of the European Union
Special Representative was changed from a rather passive role in
terms of conflict resolution, as opposed to assisting conflict
resolution. Now he is expected to contribute to conflict resolution.

That change of wording may not change very much in practice. But it
is an important political signal. What is changing in practice is
the resources and the instruments that the European Union has at its
disposal. When the European Neighborhood Policy starts to take effect
with the new financial perspective of the European Union in 2007,
there will be considerable resources available for various activities,
not least related to conflict resolution and support of the development
and rehabilitation of the conflict areas. Already at this stage, if
there is a resolution, if there is an agreement between the parties,
there are considerable rapid-reaction funds that the EU can also put
at the disposal of the two governments [of Armenia and Azerbaijan]
to repair what has been broken by the conflict.

RFE/RL: Are your authorities and powers much wider now than those of
your predecessors?

“The EU has sent a political signal that it wants to engage in conflict
resolution.”Semneby: They’re not much wider, but the EU has sent a
political signal that it wants to engage in conflict resolution. In
terms of Nagorno-Karabakh, it does not mean that the EU is a part
of the Minsk Group process [conducted under the auspices of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe]. That process
is one that was established a long time ago, and I sincerely hope
that it will now lead to a settlement, to a resolution — or at
least to the beginning of a settlement, because I think this will
be a long process also. There will be issues that will also have to
be dealt with along the way. The important thing now is that there
is a framework settlement under the auspices of the Minsk Group to
build on in the future. The role of the EU in this conflict will
be to support the settlement. Once a basic settlement, a framework
settlement, is reached, most of the resources that I mentioned that
the EU has at its disposal can be released.

…But Why Now?

RFE/RL: Nagorno-Karabakh is not an easy conflict to resolve. Attempts
have so far been unsuccessful and may not be successful for many more
years. Why has the EU decided that now is the time to become involved
in conflict resolution?

“What happens in the Southern Caucasus is no longer something abstract
and distant. It is becoming an area of direct concern to the EU. It’s
also an area that is important for energy resources.”Semneby: The
reasons why the EU is more interested now than in the past has to
do, of course, with the change of the environment in which we are
living. The European Union is enlarging.

Very soon it will have two members bordering on the Black Sea —
including the country where we are at the moment, Romania. The EU
has started to negotiate for membership with Turkey. And that changes
the perspective. What happens in the Southern Caucasus is no longer
something abstract and distant. It is becoming an area of direct
concern to the EU. It’s also an area that is important for energy
resources. It’s important because it’s close to very volatile regions
to the south. The Middle East, all the problems that we’re facing
with Iran have also focused attention on the Southern Caucasus. And
it’s also an important aspect of EU relations with our biggest and
most important partner country in the east, and that is Russia.

RFE/RL: Turning to Russia, the Caucasus reportedly figured in
discussions at the EU-Russia summit on May 25. Was Nagorno-Karabakh
on the agenda? Are there instances where Russia is heavy-handed in its
foreign policy in this area, and if so, do you express your concern?

Semneby: When the Caucasus is discussed with Russia, the three frozen
conflicts that we have in the area are obviously high on the agenda.

These conflicts — in particular, the ones in Georgia — are a direct
issue in our relations with Russia. What I hope and believe is that
we will be able to resolve the two conflicts in Georgia together
with Russia, because I fundamentally believe that it is in Russia’s
interests to have stable neighbors along all its borders and neighbors
with which it maintains predictable and friendly relations.

And only when the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia have been
resolved once and for all will the problematic relationship between
Russia and Georgia become normal.

Democracy, The EU, And The South Caucasus

Azerbaijani opposition supporters protesting in November 2005 against
what they viewed as flawed parliamentary elections (ITAR-TASS)RFE/RL:
How much do you engage in dialogue with governments in the South
Caucasus on democracy issues? There are those in Azerbaijan, for
example, who say that the EU and other Western powers are not doing
enough to remind the government of its commitment to promote democracy
and respect human rights. How do you respond to such criticism?

Semneby: Fundamentally, we regard the countries in the South Caucasus
as partners. And what you have to do with partners is you have to
discuss the issues and you have to agree on what needs to be done.

That takes some time, because our thinking has developed in different
contexts, historically and otherwise. Through an intensive relationship
over the course of the last few years, I do think that we have come
to a common understanding of what the standards are that need to be
fulfilled. The proof of that is that we have in fact agreed more
or less on quite extensive Action Plans to implement the European
Neighborhood Policy, which includes the most important parts of the
EU acquis [communitaire, the European Union’s body of laws], in terms
of democracy, human rights, rule of law, and so on. This is the first
step. We will have the Action Plans very soon. I’m convinced that the
last parts of the negotiations will be done very soon and they will
be signed. That marks a new step in our relations, when the focus
will be on the implementation of those action plans.

“I think that the EU has proven in other cases that it does have
considerable transformational power.” RFE/RL: What will happen if they
do not implement this action plan? There are OSCE commitments, there
are Copenhagen commitments to have free and fair elections, to not have
political prisoners. According to the Council of Europe, Azerbaijan
still has political prisoners. So what guarantee is there that this
Action Plan will be signed? Many think the government is using it as
a tool to show they’re pro-Western so they can stay in power.

Semneby: I think that the EU has proven in other cases that it
does have considerable transformational power, and I very strongly
believe that through the carrots and sticks that the EU will have at
its disposal as part of the Action Plans that there will be such a
transformational power in the Southern Caucasus. That is not to say
it will be easy. We have seen many of the most difficult issues in
other countries that have acceded to the European Union only being
resolved at the very final stages. Here we do have an issue that we
have to look at, since we don’t have a membership perspective in the
European Neighborhood Policy, one of the most important carrots is not
present. But I think there are still enough instruments of the same
kind that have been very successfully applied in other countries in
Central and Eastern Europe that can also be used in the South Caucasus.

RFE/RL: Finally, on a very specific issue, Armenia for several years
had only one independent television broadcaster, A1 Plus. It was then
shut down, and has repeatedly reapplied for a license and been turned
down. You have raised the A1 Plus issue with the Armenian government,
and it may eventually be handed to a European court. Can you comment
on the issue?

Semneby: Let me compare it to what I’ve seen in other countries. I have
worked for the OSCE in Latvia and Croatia, two countries that were at
an advanced stage in terms of their EU membership negotiations. Issues
of this kind were very much on the agenda in those two countries on
a very concrete level. I don’t want to comment on this specific case,
but it’s certainly something that is of interest to the EU.