The Messenger, Georgia
June 9 2006

Great interest in the Saakashvili-Putin meeting

Georgian and Russian analysts and politicians are expressing great
interest in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s and Georgian President
Mikheil Saakashvili’s upcoming meeting, which is planned for June 13
in St. Petersburg.

As the meeting approaches both sides have become milder – a fact that
should be seen as reflecting the two countries’ positive attitudes
towards the meeting. In fact, the currently milder relations between
the two countries can be regarded as an important achievement in and
of itself.

The Speaker of the Parliament Nino Burjanadze called upon her
political colleagues to observe a week’s moratorium on openly
criticizing Russia. She asked the country’s MPs not to intensify the
already existing difficult atmosphere before the Saakashvili-Putin
meeting. Accordingly the parliament has postponed discussion of the
issue of the Russian peacekeepers’ withdrawal from the conflict
zones. Governmental representatives are making optimistic statements
toward the future meeting.

“We have many reasons to think that the Georgian and Russian
Presidents’ meeting will solve many issues positively. Russia still
can play a positive role in the development processes of the region.
We hope the aforementioned meeting will solve the problems that are
so painful for us, in particular issues connected with the conflict
zones,” Burjanadze said as quoted by the newspaper 24 Saati.

The State Minister for Conflict Resolution Goga Khaindrava has made
analogous statements and is asking Moscow to make use of this “unique
chance.”

“This is a chance to accomplish an unprecedented feat: to solve the
issue of Georgian territorial integrity with the support of Russia.
We are expecting from Russia that they will see the great potential
here. Even one political decision taken by official Moscow will be
enough to change the process positively,” Goga Khaindrava said as
reported by the newspaper 24 Saati.

Such statements are necessary to lay the foundation for the two
presidents’ meeting and seem to be having the desired effect.
Although some analysts have a less optimistic attitude towards it and
they think that Russia will make concessions only if Saakashvili is
prepared to satisfy Moscow’s interests towards Georgia.

The New Rights made a special statement in which they called on
Saakashvili to be more attentive. According to them Georgia should
not make any concessions on principle issues.

“If the president makes any such concessions then it will be
treason,” Davit Gamkrelidze, the leader of the New Rights said as
quoted by the newspaper 24 Saati.

According to the newspaper Alia Saakashvili and Putin have already
met each other twice in Moscow, and once in Kazan so now they will
meet for the fourth time. The two presidents have also frequently
spoken on the phone, and Alia says that they have had 13 telephone
conversations.

According to unofficial information Saakashvili and Putin’s last
phone conversation was brought about by diplomatic efforts on the
part of the U.S. Russia does not want its relations with its
neighbors to become a thorny issue on the upcoming G8 summit
meeting’s agenda which is planned to be held in St. Petersburg later
this summer. Moscow wants to put its best face forward at this summit
and to gain respect as being a fully modern and civilized country and
not a source of potential instability and unrest.

At the same time Russia has its own interests in Georgia and fights
for the realization of these interests. For example: it has been
trying to prevent Georgia from integrating with the western world; it
wants to receive Georgia’s necessary approval for entering the World
Trade Organization; and it wants Georgia to guarantee the lines of
communication and commerce connecting Russia with Armenia. The issues
that Saakashvili is going to raise at the meeting are quite different
from Russia’s.

In reality Saakashvili’s main goal is to soften the tense relations
between the two countries. During the meeting the President of
Georgia is definitely going to push the issues of the conflict
situations in Georgia’s separatist regions, hoping to reconfirm
Russia’s commitment to the territorial integrity of Georgia.
Saakashvili will also address the Russian ban on Georgian products;
the protection of the interests of Georgian citizens who live and
work in Russia; and the increase in energy prices.

According to some analysts the aforementioned issues are wider and
more important for Georgia than Russia’s interests towards the
country, the newspaper Rezonansi writes.

Some think that the meeting will have a positive result if Moscow
agrees to reject taking any more aggressive steps against Georgia.
For example, if Moscow will agree to stop its attempt to transpose
the “Kosovo model” on the Caucasus.

According to some analysts if Russia is willing to make such
concessions then Georgia will have to cease demanding the withdrawal
of the Russian peacekeepers. If this happens then the Georgian
opposition will immediately evaluate such a development as “the
treason of Georgian interests.”

During his meeting with Putin, Saakashvili will have to balance
Georgian-Russian-Western relations and this will be quite difficult.