FOR WHAT WARS SHOULD RUSSIA BE PREPARED?

Source: Komsomolskaya Pravda, June 9, 2006, pp. 12, 13
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)

THE OPINION OF HIGH-RANKING US OFFICERS AND RUSSIAN GENERALS ABOUT
POSSIBLE MILITARY CONFLICTS IN WHICH RUSSIA MAY BECOME ENTANGLED IN
THE NEAR FUTURE

The newspaper asked Russian generals in what conflicts the Russian
Army may become entangled in the near future.

High-ranking US officers recently posted the scenarios of wars,
which may break out in the near future, on the Internet. (…) The
newspaper examined these forecasts and asked Russian generals in what
conflicts the Russian Army may become entangled in the near future.

(…)

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

The Crimea

It’s not ruled out that Russian and Ukrainian warships will engage
each other in the Black Sea within ten years. Moscow and Kyiv agreed
that the Russian Black Sea fleet will leave Sevastopol in 2017.

However, the Russian Navy does not want to leave the city of Russia’s
glory. It’s possible that Ukraine will join NATO by that time and
organize provocations. Russia will strike back. Armed conflicts are
possible. Turkish, US and UK naval groups will intervene. Russian
seamen will have to leave Sevastopol after negotiations under pressure
from NATO.

Spitsbergen

Norway declared its 200-mile zone around Spitsbergen without
discussing this matter with Russia. Moscow does not acknowledge this
zone. Russian geologists found a substantial gas reserve on the shelf
of the Barents Sea. Norway seeks to explore it. Norwegian warships
already patrol this area. This irritates Russia. The scenario is as
follows: a naval group of the Northern fleet encircles the gas field.

Norway refuses to leave this zone. Russia declares an ultimatum and
opens fire after the timing is over. We hope that the crisis will be
settled diplomatically.

(…)

Trans-Dniester territory

Moldova seeks to gain control over the pro-Russian Trans-Dniester
territory and strengthens its army. The Moldovan Defense Ministry
has already prepared the plan of invasion on the left bank of the
Dniester River. Moldova demands that Russian servicemen (2,000
people) be withdrawn. The Moldovan Army may intervene in the
Trans-Dniester territory. The Russian group of forces will have to
repulse aggression. The conflict will be long because Romania will
support Moldova.

Russian commanders will have open ammunition depots and hand out
weapons to locals. Some Russian citizens will go to the Trans-Dniester
territory to support local troops. It’s hard to predict the outcome. To
all appearances, Moldova will have to retreat. However, UN peacekeepers
will be sent to the Trans-Dniester territory.

Caucasus

Georgian Defense Minister Okruashvili promised to resign if he fails to
seize South Ossetia by January 1, 2007. However, the Georgian Army will
have to deal with Russian peacekeepers in Tskhinvali. It’s obvious that
they will not cast oranges at Georgian soldiers. It’s hardly likely
that Russian troopers will let Saakashvili defeat Abkhazia’s army.

If the Georgian Army decided to attack Ossetia and Abkhazia, Moscow
will probably send weapons to these territories. It’s possible that
volunteers from the Caucasus will support them. The conflict will be
long and unpredictable.

(…)

Operations in Armenia and Tajikistan

Members of the Collective security treaty must provide military aid to
each other in case of a military threat. The Treaty includes Armenia,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. Two of them
are on the verge of military conflicts. Azerbaijan may resume war on
Armenia because of Nagorny Karabakh. Tajikistan will have to defend
itself from Talibs if the US forces them out from Afghanistan.

Russia will have to support its allies using its bases in Armenia
(6,500 servicemen) and Tajikistan (7,000 servicemen). It’s not ruled
out that fighters deployed at the Kant base in Kyrgyzstan will suppress
Talibs. Talib gangs will hide in the mountains. The conflict may last
for decades.

RUSSIAN GENERALS’ OPINIONS

Major-General Alexander Vladimirov, vice president of the Collegium
of military experts, "We will have to defend our allies."

The Caucasus will pose the main threat to Russia within the next
10-15 years. Wahhabis become stronger and expand to Dagestan,
Kabardino-Balkaria and Adygeya. A very high crime rate in this region,
gigantic unemployment, drug trafficking and caviar smuggling testify
that Russia will have to use the Army there. A long military campaign
is not ruled out.

It’s possible that Russia will have to use the Army in order to defend
Kazakhstan. The US seeks to expand to this republic. It’s not ruled
out that it will attempt to replace the regime in this country.

We will have to use our military units.

Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of
Geopolitical Problems, "We will hold Belarus and Ukraine."

Our enemies seek to create prerequisites for NATO’s invasion in Russia
and the territory of our allies such as Belarus. The West supports
the opposition, which must replace Lukashenko and destabilize the
situation. Russia will have to support the Belarusian government. An
armed conflict with NATO is not ruled out. It’s not ruled out that
Ukraine will split into two or three parts and a civil war will break
out in this country. We will intervene in order to defend Russian
people living in Ukraine.