"THE POLITICAL SYSTEM OF ARMENIA WILL, OF NECESSITY, UNDERGO REFORM"

June 19, 2006

Lragir.am
20 June 06

Interview with Alexander Arzoumanian, Minister of Foreign Affair of
Armenia, 1996-1998

How would you assess the internal political situation in Armenia?

The behavior of senior officials in Armenia attests to the fact that
the country’s political system is on the verge of collapse. Both the
internal political situation and international developments have led
to the marginalization of the regime. The limits of what the regime
is able to do have narrowed and the methods it uses to maintain
its dominance have become ineffective. The upcoming elections of
2007 and 2008 have created within the governing camp an atmosphere
of intra-system fear for its own future. The regime has nothing to
offer anymore and cannot justify its relevance to the country.

Has the withdrawal of the Orinats Yerkir party from the governing
coalition played a role here?

Although the senior officials have done whatever they can to persuade
the public at large that nothing extraordinary has happened within
the governing system with Orinats Yerkir’s leaving the coalition,
they themselves realize that the foundation that the government’s
ability to function is based on has crumbled. The rules of the game
established in the 2003 coalition agreement, based on which the regime
has functioned so far, no longer exist. Kocharyan now finds himself
beyond the control of the coalition parties, and can act at his own
discretion. He has skillfully taken control of the parliamentary corps,
in fact turning the Republicans and the Dashnaks into a parliamentary
minority. The government and the parliament are under his thumb.

The foundation of Kocharyan’s authority is the power ministries and
the business elite. No other political force or official is in control
of these structures. They cannot control these structures for a simple
reason – these structures don’t submit to any one else.

They don’t submit because they don’t understand what’s going on. This
is natural. For the first time we have a situation in Armenia where
the acting president is required to leave his office in 2008. For the
clan system, this situation doesn’t make sense. A clan never yields
its position; it does all it can to preserve its existence. But the
current situation makes preserving its existence impossible.

Therefore, each member of the clan is trying to solve his problems
on his own. And here the initiative is in Kocharyan’s hands.

How so?

Kocharyan has decided to solve the problem of his own personal future
at the expense of everybody else. As for how he is going to do it,
no one knows yet. But everyone realizes that he will stop at nothing.

The fate of his former companions-in-arms doesn’t interest him much.

Since Orinats Yerkir withdrew from the coalition, the parliamentary
business elite has found itself in a rather paradoxical situation.

For the big businesses, the parliamentary mandates acted like a shield,
in other words, guaranteed the protection of their property.

Besides, in exchange for their service, the
businessmen-parliamentarians expected from the government preferential
terms for their businesses. And that’s how it was as long as the
governing camp didn’t split up.

But didn’t all the businessmen-parliamentarians from Orinats Yerkir
immediately leave the party, once again assuring Kocharyan of their
obedience?

At present, the property of businessmen with parliamentary mandates
is becoming a target for Kocharyan’s political ambitions – creating
the danger of losing that property. The degree of their obedience
has increased sharply. None of the businessmen knows Kocharyan’s
political plans, and this deepens their anxiety.

Moreover, Kocharyan’s actions don’t suggest a desire to transfer power
to his political base, the Republican Party, or to Serge Sargsyan.

Kocharyan is confidently expanding his political party, Prosperous
Armenia, without taking anyone into consideration. At the same time,
no businessmen or influential officials are allowed to join the
party. Such a governing camp is a novelty for Armenia. The question
arises–if the people in Kocharyan’s environment have no place in
his party, then where is their place going to be? This is not an idle
question, since the nomenklatura wants to know its place in the future
governing system. They want to know, but nobody tells them.

The anxiety of these so-called influential people has now become
palpable. Serge Sargsyan, Andranik Margaryan, and Aghvan Hovsepyan are
beginning to realize that they have no place in Kocharyan’s plans. They
are amazed, since the logic of the clan system should have made this
impossible. And they even attempt independent initiatives, all the
while remaining keenly aware that the guarantee of their strength
lies in supporting Kocharyan.

But Serge Sargsyan doesn’t conceal his presidential ambitions.

Many people thought that if Kocharyan had to leave, the most obvious
step would have been to strengthen the Republican Party, putting Serge
Sargsyan at its helm and shoving this army into power. But that is not
what Kocharyan is doing. To all appearances, Kocharyan has realized,
or has been made to understand, that such a plan for transferring
power would lead directly to a revolutionary situation.

Such a reproduction of power would serve as a catalyst for the
consolidation of the people, and the political forces and the regime,
with its old and new faces alike, would become the target of this
revolutionary energy.

Will the opposition benefit from Arthur Baghdasaryan’s joining it?

Arthur Baghdasaryan’s joining the opposition might animate the
opposition movement to some extent. The regime has created a
potential avenger for itself. Irrespective of whether the public is
indifferent, whether it doesn’t trust anyone including Baghdasaryan,
the enfeeblement thrust on the public at large over the years has,
perforce, produced a certain vengefulness. Sociological surveys attest
that our society is in search of an avenger figure, no matter who
that avenger might be.

The public consciousness in Armenia has become irrational, and any
force, even a radically destructive one, will be able to win public
sympathy if it demonstrates the ability to punish the regime.

What developments can we expect?

Developments will be sudden. The political system of Armenia will,
of necessity, undergo reform. The regime knows that these changes may
be qualitative, unraveling the internal political tangle even before
the 2007 parliamentary elections. That is why the desire of some
officials to artificially accelerate the reproduction of power has
become noticeable. But Kocharyan himself hinders everyone. Therefore,
we may witness some anti-Kocharyan sallies from within the governing
system, on the part of those who see their imminent political demise.

But an internal coup will not satisfy the people. Not even their
hatred of Kocharyan will induce the people to support any part of
this system that is corrupt to the core, no matter how they may try
to use the people’s hatred to prolong their own existence. They will
all have to leave together. There is no alternative.

Of course, it would be better if the people didn’t choose vengeance.

A lot will depend on the political forces in Armenia. A policy of
reforms should be implemented based on the values of independence,
statehood, and democracy. After all, political change only has value
if it leads to the establishment of full-fledged constitutional order
in Armenia. Otherwise, it’s in vain.