IT ONLY SEEMS THAT 1998 RETURNS
Melik Avanyan
Lragir.am
30 June 06
Recently there has been a great deal of consideration that the 1998
coup inside the government may repeat in Armenia. Many people tended
to believe this, namely officials, who have been steadily gathering
around the Republican Party, which has already waited on the coup
inside the government once.
It appears that the stereotype of 1998 is deeply rooted in the
consciousness of Armenian officials. As soon as a complicated state
occurs in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, everyone hurries
up to keep away from the president of Armenia and take up a runner’s
position. The same is now. As soon as the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs
announced that they wash their hands and hand over the fate to the
presidents of the conflict sides, the officials of Armenia immediately
revived the image of 1998 and ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosyan in
their minds.
Now it is clear to even an outsider that these peddlars in politics
are going to run away from Robert Kocharyan’s sinking ship, who
has to tackle the current complicated situation. Serge Sargsyan,
imagining himself the analogue of the former defense minister and a
present superminister also broke away. Certainly, he is suspicious,
he is afraid of making mistakes. And he is right to be suspicious,
since unlike his brothers-in-arms runners he is well aware that he
will not be determining the fate of power in Armenia, moreover, the
fate of Karabakh. Simply, he might be hopeful that 1998 will reoccur.
At that time it will be important to assume a convenient position,
for he may manage to jump across the precipice once again.
It would be good, of course, if Serge Sargsyan thought over his
suspicions, which are quite justified. It appears, however, that the
stereotype of the blessed 1998 also prevail over his thoughts. What
should he do if in Armenia they have seen nothing except a coup?
There is no point in relying on elections because he will get the same
3.3 percent as in 2003. There is no place to go, President Kocharyan
has placed him outside the framework of his plans. Besides, he is
not going to quit power. Perhaps, Serge Sargsyan is hopeful that
forces from the outside will make Kocharyan quit. In the meantime,
the sanctuary cannot be left vacant, and he must be ready because
hunters for presidency are all around.
This is for our officials. For Armenia and its political future,
the situation is grave. Mathew Bryza, the new U.S. co-chair of the
OSCE Minsk Group, offered a serious problem to President Kocharyan:
untie the diplomatic knot of Karabakh, and at the same time tackle
the problem of democratization of the country’s political system.
There is no way back. The time is over. All the stipulations assumed
the form of an ultimatum.
It is clear that if he tries to avoid the task and wait until hard
times are over, the super powers will start changing the state of
things themselves, making it even more complicated. The game is
over, and it was not accidental that 235 million dollars was hung on
Kocharyan. They may also add the problems of Karabakh. The problem
would be much more complicated then, and failure in this direction
would mean the end of Kocharyan. Hence, there is only one way out,
especially that the end of the term of presidency is drawing nearer,
and there is no time to maneuver. In addition, for the first time,
he has to act on concern for the country’s future, not on personal
concerns. It happened so, and it is even unusual.
It seemed that he could follow Levon Ter-Petrosyan, with a slight
difference of course, rejecting the agreement on settlement of the
Karabakh conflict and leave as a hero. This way of becoming a hero
is practiced in Armenia only. Everyone is already getting bored by
heroes. Everyone demands progress and considers it a dimension of a
hero. Besides, this will not solve the problem. For it has been put
clearly that the political system must be made democratic, and in
the world they do not joke about such things.
Here is a paradox. They did not even allow Kocharyan to retire
quietly. And it is quite clear why. If he retires, he will hand over
power to our corrupt officials, who are already standing in a queue
led by Serge Sargsyan. The world will never forgive Kocharyan, because
Armenia is an important country with an important role in the region:
nobody would allow "pageantry".
What is left to do? A very simple solution: if it is impossible to
settle the Karabakh issue even through a resignation, the question
of democratization of the country must be solved. In that case, it is
possible that the stipulations for Karabakh will become softer. We saw
how the Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev was caressed in the United
States. Whereas all he did was put a group of corrupt officials to jail
during the election. He did it and appeared as a great democrat. Maybe
he treated his father’s brothers-in-arms unfairly, but they had
treated both the state and the son of that father unfairly.
Our Armenian corrupt officials are also being unfair. They immediately
left the president as soon as he appeared in a difficult state. It
is wrong. They may follow Aliyev’s example, of course, and put them
to prison, especially that the reasons are many. But it is also
possible to direct them towards their dream and dismiss them from
offices as soon as it is possible and let them "soar" over the free
political sphere. Arthur Baghdasaryan disagreed with the president,
he moved towards freedom. Let those who disagree leave as well. For
they believe they can do everything.
Robert Kocharyan has taken a strange step so far. At the sunset of
his presidency he betrayed his belief that his party is his people,
and started setting up his own political party – Bargavach Hayastan
(Prosperous Armenia). It is true that he is shy to confess that it
is his own political party and there is no place for our corrupt
officials there (perhaps he cannot explain to his brothers-in-arms
why), but he is building the political party more intensively. What
is he doing it for? Perhaps he does not know. Let alone the others.
But now there is no necessity to think. Everyone, who is able to
perceive, even those who have mercantile aims, would clear the
government of the present officials and appoint pro-state figures
to these positions. And let Bargavach Hayastan spread over the
vast fields of "free power". For Arthur Baghdasaryan occupied the
opposition, and Serge Sargsyan’s official republican club will soon
find its place for election in another country far away from Armenia
(his experience in coercion and trade may prove useful), and if he
does not want, the model of Aliyev Jr. may be applied, providing
corrupt officials with custody where the law provides for it.
Robert Kocharyan, however, may realize that "battling corruption" is
also a powerful political mechanism, more powerful than administrative
terror and trade. If he had realized this, nobody would have offered
an ultimatum to Armenia. However, this is already his problem,
and he will have to answer for the artificial feeling of dignity,
not people. Armenia will overcome this situation on its own.
The world did not start and will not end with Kocharyan. Simply
everyone is tired of permanent destruction. Let do something properly
at last!