KARABAKH WILL DECIDE FUTURE WITH REFERENDUM…EVENTUALLY
By Christina Tashkevich

The Messenger, Georgia
June 29 2006

Military parade in the de facto republic’s capital Stepanakert

The Armenian Foreign Ministry says the OSCE Minsk Group, which
moderates negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Karabakh
conflict, for the first time confirmed that the people of Karabakh
should determine their future status through a referendum.

The Armenian side says the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed
on the referendum issue, and the only disagreement left concerns the
sequence of how the military conflict should be settled.

Armenia says Azerbaijan is deliberately stalling in this regard.

The Azeri minister of Foreign Affairs, Elmar Mammadyarov, denied
Azerbaijan artificially delays the negotiating process, calling the
claims groundless.

"We need to consider the form of autonomy to be given to
Nagorno-Karabakh. This autonomy could follow the example of
Nakhichivan, Tatarstan, Bashkiria or other models. The issue of
status should be considered together with communities of Karabakh,
and relations should be established between these communities,"
Mammadyarov said.

The Azeri ministry says the Minsk Group co-chairs and the US co-chair
of the group, Matthew Bryza, have indicated only the general outline
of stage-by-stage peaceful settlement, currently under discussion.

"The Azeri side once again re-affirms being prepared to grant
Karabakh the highest status of self-rule within the framework of
the internationally-recognized territorial integrity of the Republic
of Azerbaijan and based on the current Constitution of Azerbaijan,"
says the statement.

The meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan on June 4-5
did not bring any results towards conflict settlement, despite the
intention of international observers to finalize a framework agreement
at the meeting.

Both Armenian and Azeri authorities agreed that no major movements
forward have been achieved at the meeting.

The co-chairs of the Minsk Group, however, say the sides can sign
the peace agreement this year. Observers back in Baku and Yerevan
note that, in case of an internationally recognized referendum,
the enclave’s reunification with Armenia or independence will be
legitimized.

Matthew Bryza, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for
European and Eurasian affairs, who has recently replaced Steven Mann
as the U.S. co-chair of the Minsk Group, told RFE/RL the framework
agreement would call for the removal of Armenian troops from Karabakh
as well as economic assistance to the region. After these issues
are resolved, the future status of Karabakh can be decided at the
referendum.

However, Bryza indicates the Minsk Group would not try to arrange
another round of presidential meetings or "broker an agreement."

"We just don’t know where the presidents are right now. We’re
encouraging them, we’re nudging them by taking a step back. Nudging
them to show that they have this political will," he told RFE/RL.

The US diplomat notes the cooperation of the OSCE with Russia on
the Karabakh issue is more fruitful than the cooperation to resolve
conflicts in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transdnistria.

"I would also say the United States has worked hard to keep the
Georgians as constructive and moderate as possible, and I hope
our Russians colleagues and friends will do the same in terms of
encouraging the Abkhaz to be constructive and moderate," he said.

Bryza, as well as other US officials, hope to put the issue of frozen
conflicts in the region on the agenda of G8 summit in St Petersburg
in July, while Russian authorities does not approve of the idea.

While Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdnistria are all
striving to be recognized, experts agree that there is a clear reason
why Karabakh did not join the union of the rest de facto republics,
which was recently formalized at a meeting in the de facto Abkhaz
capital of Sokhumi. There is an opinion that while Abkhazia, South
Ossetia and Transdnistria are oriented to Russia, Karabakh stays
oriented to Yerevan, which in turn not only turns for advice to Russia,
but also is waiting for the resolution of the conflict with the help
of Europe and the United States.