Baku Sun, Azerbaijan
June 30 2006
Referendum in Karabakh?
BAKU – While mediators representing the United States, Russia and
France came up with a framework agreement on how to end the
18-year-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian and
Azerbaijani foreign ministries traded bitter accusations, blaming
each other for the failure of peace negotiations.
In an interview with RFE/RL on 22 June, Matthew Bryza – the newly
appointed US co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group – said the framework
agreement envisages Armenia’s withdrawal from Azerbaijan’s occupied
territories, the restoration of diplomatic and economic ties between
Baku and Yerevan, the deployment of peacekeepers to the conflict
zone, international economic assistance to Nagorno-Karabakh, and a
vote `at some point’ on the future status of the region. `So that’s
kind of the basic outline of the proposal on the table, and we would
very much encourage the [Azerbaijani and Armenian] presidents to
accept this framework, which requires a lot of political courage,
which I’ve said publicly before,’ Bryza said.
In the meantime, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said the talks
mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group were leading nowhere. Speaking at
the graduation ceremony of a higher military school in Baku, Aliyev
reiterated that Armenia’s refusal to withdraw from the occupied
territories of Azerbaijan could make the latter resort to military
action.
Aliyev said his country’s growing military spending – which amounted
to over $700 million in 2006 compared to Armenia’s $150 million –
would enable it to regain control of the Armenian occupied
territories by military force.
Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of
Azerbaijan, is home to nearly 100,000 ethnic Armenians. The Armenians
captured Nagorno-Karabakh, along with seven administrative districts
of Azerbaijan, in the early 1990s, expelling some 700,000 people from
their homes. The occupied territories account for nearly 20 per cent
of Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized area.
Armenia responded on Monday, blaming the failure of the Karabakh
talks on Azerbaijan. In a statement carried by the Arminfo news
agency, the Armenian Foreign Ministry accused Baku of turning down
peace proposals offered by the OSCE Minsk Group, but did not
elaborate on the proposals.
The Armenian ministry threatened to pull out of the talks: `If
Azerbaijan continues its policy, Armenia will insist that Azerbaijan
talks directly to Nagorno-Karabakh,’ the ministry said, adding that
Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh would never give up their
`independence’. `Once again we want to tell Azerbaijan that no one
can force the people of Nagorno-Karabakh to give up the right to
freedom and self-determination, no matter how large their military
budget is,’ the statement read. Referendum
To the surprise of many in Azerbaijan, the Armenian Foreign Ministry
said the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents had agreed on the
holding of a referendum in Nagorno-Karabakh to define the region’s
political status.
`There is no disagreement on the issue of a referendum. The
Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents have already agreed on this,’ the
statement read, adding that the mediators also support the idea of
holding a vote in Nagorno-Karabakh.
`For the first time ever, the co-chairmen [of the OSCE Minsk Group]
have said that Nagorno-Karabakh’s status should be decided by the
people of Nagorno-Karabakh in a referendum,’ the Armenian Foreign
Ministry said.
What still causes disagreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is how
to liquidate the ramifications of the military conflict by stages,
the statement went on.
`Armenia believes that, in general, the principles set out by the
OSCE Minsk Group co-chairman serve as grounds for continuing the
talks, and we are ready to hold talks with Azerbaijan based on [these
principles],’ the statement read.
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, however, said that
any referendum in the ethnic Armenian-populated region of the country
should be held in keeping with the Azerbaijani Constitution, and only
after the Azerbaijanis expelled from Nagorno-Karabakh are allowed
back. An estimated 40,000 Azerbaijanis were expelled from the region
during the hostilities. In a statement released on Tuesday,
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry said Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence or
unification with Armenia is out of the question. `Azerbaijan’s
territorial integrity is not and cannot be a subject of
negotiations… If the negotiation process breaks up, responsibility
for this and its further consequences will rest with the Armenian
side,’ the Foreign Ministry said, but also reiterated Azerbaijan’s
commitment to finding a negotiated settlement of the conflict.
`Azerbaijan reiterates that it is ready to grant Nagorno-Karabakh the
highest-level of autonomy in line with the Azerbaijani Constitution
and within the framework of Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized
territorial integrity,’ the statement read. Eldar Namazov, a
political analyst who headed former President Heydar Aliyev’s
secretariat in the late 1990s, said it would be a grave political
mistake on the part of Azerbaijan if it gave the go ahead to a
referendum in the Armenian-occupied territory.
`It would be contrary to Azerbaijan’s interests,’ Namazov said in an
interview with Baku Sun. `It may be that Azerbaijan is making
promises under duress. But this could have bitter consequences for
Azerbaijan,’ the analyst said.