ALIYEV GETTING READY FOR WAR? NAGORNO-KARABAKH PRESS DIGEST

Regnum, Russia
July 1 2006

The model of Tatarstan does not suit Karabakh

The key difficulty in the Karabakh peace talks is to determine the
future status of that territory, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov told journalists. He noted that the sides are showing
no much of agreement yet, but if they agree on this issue, they will
ensure real progress in the talks. 525th Daily reports Mammadyarov as
saying that Azerbaijan is ready to provide Karabakh with the highest
autonomy status possible within its territorial integrity. He gave
the example of Tatarstan, a very wide autonomy within the Russian
Federation, whose constitution allows it to build relations with
foreign countries and to open representations abroad.

The daily notes that the model of Tatarstan was discussed as early as
September 1993 by then acting Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev
and Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossyan during their Moscow
meeting organized by Russian President Boris Yeltsin. Later, former
state advisor Vafa Guluzade, who was present at the meeting, said
that Armenia rejected this proposal, while the Russian side showed
no specific approach to it. In the spring 2001, during the talks in
Paris and Key-West, the model of Tatarstan was again on agenda. The
head of the Azeri delegation to PACE Ilham Aliyev suggested applying
this model as a way to resolve the Karabakh conflict, but the
Armenian side kept objecting to any proposals for keeping Karabakh
within Azerbaijan. In this light, Baku’s return to the Tatarstan
model is quite noteworthy. "There are several ways to determine
the status of disputed territories in the world: highest level of
autonomy, condominium (joint government), territorial swap, special
agreement. Until now the Armenian side has been rejecting the proposals
for Karabakh’s autonomy within Azerbaijan and territorial swap."

Joint government in Karabakh is contrary to the interests of the
Azerbaijani statehood as it means that Azerbaijan will lose its
sovereignty over that territory. Special agreement has a big potential
for attaining mutual understanding and is used mostly for resolving
conflicts with separatist regions. In this case, a central government
and a region conclude an agreement on coordinating sovereignty. For
example, in Russia Tatarstan decides on its own in all spheres except
foreign policy, defense and security."

The idea of giving Karabakh "wide" autonomy is taking specific shape,
says KarabakhOpen.com: "The Azerbaijani Foreign Minister has finally
outlined this idea and said that autonomy may be similar to the
status of Tatarstan within the Russian Federation." The daily quotes
experts as saying that the new ideas of the Azerbaijani FM are just
"agony," the last try to preserve nominal authority over Karabakh –
no coincidence, they are beginning to talk about this now that the
independence of Montenegro has been recognized.

The leader of the Fatherland faction of the Nagorno-Karabakh parliament
Araik Haroutyunyan says that NKR will not discuss any of Azerbaijan’s
proposals going beyond its independence. "As regards Mammadyarov’s
idea, I would advise him to first consider providing autonomy to
Azerbaijani Talish and Kurdish minorities," says Haroutyunyan.

The representative of the ARF Dashnaktsoutyun to NKR Artur Mossiyan
notes that this is not the first time the Azerbaijani authorities
are making such a statement. "The Azeri authorities have always said
that they are ready to provide Karabakh with the ‘widest’ autonomy
existing in the world. Perhaps, for Mammadyarov Tatarstan’s autonomy
is the widest, but the Karabakh people and authorities and our party
have always confirmed their will to have an independent state and
have always rejected any scenarios implying Karabakh’s submission to
Azerbaijan," says Mossiyan.

The chairman of the parliamentary commission on defense and security
Rudik Martirossyan says that the situation in Karabakh is drastically
different from the situation in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdnestr or
even Tatarstan. Quite different analogues are applicable to Karabakh –
"as we have never been part of independent Azerbaijan."

"This statement is just one more impracticable proposal as no nation
who has once gained independence through a referendum can be submitted
by another nation. The proposal of the Azeri side is unacceptable to
Karabakh," says Martirossyan.

Commenting on Mammadyarov’s statement, Nagorno Karabakh FM Georgy
Petrosyan says: "This statement – unless it is just one more
propaganda move – means that Azerbaijan is ready to federalize its
state. So, I hope they will give this autonomy to the Lezgin, Talish
and other minorities living in their country. As regards NKR – with
whom Azerbaijan avoids to contact – I would like to note that the
Azerbaijani authorities cannot give one or another status to Nagorno
Karabakh as this is outside their competence. The status of Nagorno
Karabakh has been legally determined by its people." (The information
portal of the Nagorno Karabakh FM) Is Aliyev getting ready for war?

525th daily reports Azerbajani President Ilham Aliyev to say during
the 33rd meeting of the FMs of the Organization for the Islamic
Conference that Azerbaijan hopes for peaceful resolution of the
Karabakh conflict but must consider other scenarios too. He said
that this problem is an obstacle to cooperation in the whole region:
"We are trying to solve this problem by peaceful means but we cannot
put up with the present reality. Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity
is recognized in the whole world. The Armenian side defies the 4 UN
resolutions urging it to withdraw its troops from Azerbaijani lands."

"Azerbaijan has never agreed to the violation of its territorial
integrity. The talks will lead to peace only when Azerbaijan’s
territorial integrity is restored," Aliyev said.

The Azerbaijani army can liberate the territories occupied by
Armenia at any moment, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev told
journalists on June 22. Day.Az reports him as noting that, in fact,
Azerbaijan is still at war with Armenia. As a result, the situation
on the frontline is constantly unstable, the lives of Azeri soldiers
are constantly in danger, but the Azerbaijani army can rebuff any
attack by the enemy at any moment.

"Should we continue the talks, at all, if nothing is coming of them?

This has long become just an attempt to follow fashion – in fact,
humiliation of the Azerbaijani people. We better stop dreaming we may
benefit from this gathering. We all remember how Kocharyan shamelessly
said at PACE that he is proud that he took part in ‘the liberation of
Karabakh’! What talks can we have with this terrorist who is proud
of his Fascist ideology – an ideology that is agonizing the whole
region?! While Azerbaijan is gradually losing ground at the talks,
the Armenians are getting increasingly confident of their strength and
impunity. While our rich are just thinking how to fill their purses
and pockets, the Armenians are gaining ground by availing themselves
of the incompetence, egoism and pathological greed of the Azerbaijani
political ‘elite’… Kocharyan, Oskanyan, Ghoukassyan and the like
are encouraged by the impotence of the Azerbaijani authorities who
just keep saying ‘We will never put up with the loss of Karabakh!’ –
a phrase that has long set our teeth on edge," says Zerkalo daily.No
war by Azerbaijan, to date, does not mean they fear that anybody
will censure them, political scientist Hrazdan Madoyan says to
PanARMENIAN.Net. On the one hand, if they in Baku were at least
50 percent sure they would win, they would not look at the US or
NATO. On the other hand, the selfsame US and NATO have put a rigid
veto on war. This veto may imply the toughest possible sanctions –
up to "division of the country and dethronement of Aliyev."