STATEMENT BY OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS SPARKS DEBATE IN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN
By Taleh Ziyadov

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
July 7 2006

Friday, July 7, 2006

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian
Affairs Matthew Bryza On June 22, during a meeting of the OSCE
Permanent Council in Vienna, the Minsk Group co-chairs announced
the main principles of the Karabakh peace process. The accompanying
statement described these principles as "a set of core principles that
[the co-chairs] believe are fair, balanced, workable, and that could
pave the way for the two sides to draft a far-reaching settlement
agreement" (Regnum, June 29).

The same day, the newly appointed U.S. co-chair, Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza,
gave an interview to RFE/RL. In the interview, Bryza elaborated on
these principles, which have emerged over the last two years.

The decision to go public about the details of the peace talks
sparked debates in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. While some of the
topics discussed during the negotiations had been leaked to the
media in Armenia and Azerbaijan, this was the first time that the
OSCE Minsk group co-chairs publicly confirmed the basic principles
of the current negotiations.

In his interview, Bryza said, "It’s really up to the presidents now
to decide whether or not they want to take the politically difficult
and challenging decisions…We want [the presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan] to demonstrate that they really do have the political
will to take these next difficult steps" (RFE/RL, June 23).

The OSCE Minsk Group proposal suggests a gradual pull out of Armenian
troops from the occupied districts of Azerbaijan surrounding Karabakh
region accompanied with "special modalities for Kelbajar and Lachin
districts," the demilitarization of these territories, the return of
internally displaced persons, deployment of peacekeeping forces to the
conflict zone, reopening the communication links between Armenia and
Azerbaijan, and "a referendum or population vote — at a date and in a
manner to be decided through further negotiations — to determine the
final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh" (OSCE Press Release, July 3).

Officials in Armenia and Azerbaijan were quick to react to the OSCE
statement and tried to use it to their advantage.

Armenia’s Foreign Ministry issued a press release stating,
"The co-chairs have only partially revealed the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict resolution principles; they have left out references to a
corridor linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, and issues relating
to Nagorno-Karabakh’s status before a referendum" (Panarmenian.net,
June 27).

The statement also declared, "Those items over which the presidents
of Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to disagree do not include a
referendum. That concept has been agreed to by the presidents"
(Panarmenian.net, June 27).

Meanwhile in Azerbaijan, Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov noted,
"It is incorrect to make statements half-way through the peace process,
as it may cause confusion. As seen, the opposite side has already
tried to make use of such statements" (Trend, July 3).

Azimov "unequivocally dismissed statements that the [Azerbaijani]
government had agreed to a referendum to be held in [Karabakh] in the
future." He added that there could be only a nationwide referendum
that would include not only the Karabakh region, but also the whole
of Azerbaijan (AzerNews, July 6).

"The Azerbaijani leadership will never step back from its position
on the referendum issue. Any speculation to that end is false,"
concluded Azimov (AzerNews, July 6).

Yet, despite the diplomatic disagreement, the foreign ministers of
Armenia and Azerbaijan expressed their countries’ readiness to continue
the negotiations (Panarmenian.net, June 28; Today.az, June 27).

There is still room for maneuvering and creativity with respect to
the principles currently under discussion. However, the task of the
OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, as well as for the presidents of Armenia
and Azerbaijan, is extremely difficult, given the fact that they will
have to find a compromise solution to issues that are interlinked.

Without an agreement on the final status of Karabakh, Yerevan will
be reluctant to pull its troops out of the occupied districts around
the enclave, particularly from Kalbajar and Lachin. Baku, however,
will insist on the return of all seven districts around Karabakh and
reject calls for an explicit referendum within the region.

Starting from September, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs will try to
expedite the peace process in hope that the presidents of Armenia
and Azerbaijan could at least agree on the main principles of the
settlement. If the parties fail to do so, the conflict will likely
re-freeze for another three years. During this period, there will be
a series of elections in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and both states
will try to change the political and military balance of power in
the region to their favor.