Analyst: Invitation of Georgia to NATO on the threshold of G8 summit is a blunt challenge to Russia

Regnum, Russia
July 10 2006

Arif Yunusov, political analyst, head of Conflictology and Migration
Department, Institute for Peace and Democracy (Azerbaijan).

REGNUM: In what formulation the Karabakh problem will be presented
at the G8 summit in St. Petersburg (most probably, on the sidelines
of the summit)?

I suppose, the Karabakh problem will not occupy any significant
place in discussions at the St. Petersburg summit. Most probably,
the Karabakh problem will be somehow discussed on the sidelines of
debates between Russia and the USA. However, it will be in context of
settlement of other conflicts. In other words, the top priority at the
summit will be discussion of Kosovo. In its turn, Russia would raise
the issue of necessity of a universal approach to all the conflicts,
and in this aspect, probably, a discussion will be held on Abkhazia,
South Ossetia and Karabakh; if the Karabakh problem is to be reflected
in the documents officially, it will be only in the form of supporting
position of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs conveyed on June 22. But
separately the Karabakh problem will not be discussed at the summit.

REGNUM: What is Russia’s mission and role in settling this problem?

Concerning the Karabakh issue, Russia’s role is significant indeed.

It is another matter, how strongly it aspires for using its
opportunities. Until now Russia has been taking a hesitating
position, giving the initiative to the US. And. I suppose, the Russian
authorities will not be distressed, if what at the current stage is
named as the Prague Process ends up with another failure.

REGNUM: Will Russia, which itself has faced separatism in Chechnya
in its case, insist upon universal nature of the Kosovo precedent?

Of course, Russia would insist upon universal character of the Kosovo
precedent. Essentially, both Russian authorities of various levels
and many representatives of the political elite have repeatedly
talked about it. At the same time, Chechen separatism will play no
special role for the Russian authorities. The Chechen separatism
did not hinder Russia from playing a negative role in the conflicts
in Azerbaijan (Karabakh), Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and
Moldova (Transdnestr). It is exactly the case, when one should speak
of double standards.

REGNUM: What aims will the group of Western countries pursue and are
there any objective grounds for possible criticism of the Russian
policy?

The G8 summit in St. Petersburg can become very important for Russia
and the whole world too. It is not a secret any more that relations
between Russia and the West have started worsening considerably
recently. After more than ten years of talking about Russia’s
"integration" with the West and "strategic partnership" between Moscow
and Washington, today officials from the USA and Western Europe express
their concern publicly concerning internal political situation in
Russia and its relations with republics of the former USSR. And
Russia’s making advances to China and Iran stir serious alert and
the question, what to do with Putin Russia. At first, criticism
towards Russia was made through Western mass media. And on May 4,
US Vice President Dick Cheney directly accused the Kremlin in "unfair
infringement upon civil rights" and use the country’s energy resources
as "instruments of intimidation and blackmail." And recent almost
demonstratively pompous reception by George Bush to Georgian President
Mikhail Saakashvili and proposal to join NATO on the threshold of the
summit are just a blunt challenge to Russia. This way, it is shown
that the period of the carrot policy towards Russia has failed and now
a stage of stick has been started. Of course, at the summit, first of
all, the issue is to be considered of Russia’s using energy resources
for exerting political pressure and blackmail of the former Soviet
republics. There will be also criticism of Russia’s policy towards
former USSR countries, as well as in the East. In a lesser extent,
a question about reduction of democratic processes in Russia itself.

In many expects, this criticism will be of undoubtedly objective
character. However, the matter is, that policy of leading Western
countries has also dual nature, and just like Russia, the USA connives
at actions of authoritarian leaders if they have energy resources
and agree to support policy of the West. It will let Putin rebut the
criticism. On the other hand, the West should comprehend: Russia for
many reasons cannot be fully pro-Western or anti-Western.

It is an internal Russia’s problem, and its tragedy and strength
simultaneously. So, the West should take Russia as it is, but not
live in the world of illusions and believe that Russia has a chance
to become a part of the Wet. In his turn, Putin will try to turn
the summit into a large-scale propagandist show in order to prove
that Russia has regenerated, become a superpower again, although a
democratic one and with free market economy.

REGNUM: What can Azerbaijan expect from the summit in terms of securing
energy safety?

To a known extent Azerbaijan can gain profit from the summit. Because
one of the most acute discussions will be the problem of energy
security of Western countries and their fear that a new Russia, as
they believe, has assumed the policy of effective use of weapons in
foreign policy. In this connection, not so important in scale of Russia
and Arab countries energy resources of Azerbaijan can be partly an
alternative for Georgia, Ukraine, Poland and some other countries. I
suppose, in this issue the West will pay even more attention to
the problem of safe supply of Azerbaijani energy resources and
strengthening its influence in this country. But Russia would hardly
agree with such developments, and that means that geopolitical life
at South Caucasus will only increase.