ONLY RUSSIANS BELIEVED OSKANYAN’S THESIS ABOUT BREEDING TIGERS IN
CAGES FOR 100 YEARS

Lragir.am
14 July 06

The operation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline would probably
be the first important event after the World Cup if Israel did not
decide to cross the border of Lebanon. Cynical though it may sound,
it is nevertheless good that the operation of BTC was not the first
global event after the World Cup, because our feeling of regret for
being left out of it will not be so very sharp. And we have to confess
that we have such a feeling. After all an annual tens or maybe one
hundred million dollars is not little for a country whose state budget,
even with a two-digit economic growth, hardly counts over one billion
dollars only due to the brazen depreciation of the dollar. And though
the operation of the oil pipeline sparks national dignity and pushes
into "100 years of solitude" (according to Vardan Oskanyan, Armenia
will develop even if it remains in blockade for a hundred years),
it would be nevertheless preferable that Armenia were included in
projects of global importance.

The Armenian government had been attempting to persuade the Armenian
society that the BTC pipeline would not be constructed because
economically it is not favorable. Of course, these statements relied
not only on the economic disadvantage but also the belief that Russia
would hinder the implementation of the project, which clashed with
its interests, acting as a turnpike between Moscow and the region.

But official Yerevan was perhaps in a confusion. If Russia may not
tolerate Yerevan’s steps and prevent Yerevan from doing something,
it does not mean that Russia can do the same with everyone else. The
utmost thing that Russia may bar is transportation of Armenian cargo
via Verin Lars.

It is notable that Russia marked the operation of BTC by deciding
to pour out its fury on Armenia. Of course, the Russians dispatched
Levitin to announce that they did not know that Armenians have no
other route of transportation of cargo otherwise they would have
informed about closing Verin Lars beforehand.

No, probably only the Russians believe Oskanyan’s thesis on breeding
tigers in a cage for 100 years. Or only the Russians took it for
a joke and went on joking. Otherwise, how can the assertion of
Russians that they did not expect that closing Verin Lars would cause
a road problem for Armenia be taken seriously? The impression is that
because of closing the same Verin Lars several months ago the trucks
of Equatorial Guinea with Armenian numbers stopped at the checkpoint
for weeks, and could not come to Armenia or go to Russia.

Similarly Russia may have been unaware that the BTC oil pipeline would
offer significant political and economic dividends to Azerbaijan,
the regional rival of Armenia, otherwise it would not have allowed
the construction of a pipeline, which is against the interests of its
ally. On the other hand, however, the pipeline is not so very bad for
us. This project representing the energy interests of great powers,
namely the United States, is a guarantee of peace and stability in
the region. If they build, it is clear that the United States does
not need the pipes but the oil barrels flowing via these pipes. And
in order to keep the oil flowing they need to guarantee stability
and peace in the region.

In this aspect, the oil pipeline makes Azerbaijan powerful, on the
one hand, but on the other hand, it restrains its power, at least
until they run out of oil. In this context, it is evident that at
the moment the oil pipeline is in the interests of Armenia as well,
and it is good that Russia did not perceive this, for it might made
real efforts to hinder its construction. It is also clear that the
pipeline will be in our interests as long as there is oil in it. In
other words, we do not have a factor of eternity of our interest for
the simple reason that we do not have oil to pump into the pipeline
to prolong peace after the Azerbaijani and Kazakh oil is through.

However, we do not have oil but we have a Diaspora. We should
reconsider the program of the third Armenia-Diaspora forum and instead
of directing the Diasporan money at the development of Armenian
villages we should direct it to Geyhan. Not for the development
of Ceyhan, of course, but at buying all the oil flowing out of the
BTC pipe to pump it back into the pipeline somewhere in Georgia or
Azerbaijan. In order not to keep the oil flowing forever and prevent
Azerbaijan from displaying its power.

HAKOB BADALYAN