LARGE SCALE WAR LEVIES?
Aravot.am
18 July 06
Interview by Tigran Avetisian
The orientalist David Hovhannisian considers the involvement of other
countries in the Arabic-Israeli conflict in this phase less possible.
Arabic-Israeli conflict has turned into a real war in the latest
period. In your opinion how do you explain this extreme situation in
the Middle East region? It is known that this conflict in contrast to
other conflicts is the most difficult with its crux and structure. It
goes to the ancient times and has a mythological pretext. All attempts
of schemes of armistice have been failed during the last decades. The
so-called Â"road mapÂ" also was failed. As regards your mentioned
latest events there have always been such situations and in most
probability will be in the future. Why it is just now: the answer
of this question must be found in the context of the current world
political events. There are some factors. Let me give an example: when
the head of the family loses his head and doesn’t fulfill his family
obligations that family members behave outrageously. Saying the head
of the family I mean the U.S., which has got into difficulties together
with this region by its Iraqi adventures, noise, made round the nuclear
project of Iran, provoking civilization conflicts. As a result, it
has lost control over the processes, and nowadays we have what we
have. The difficulty of the situation is described by combining some
elements. One of it is the problem of Iran: as you know the Iranian
dossier will be discussed in the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday,
which means the possibility of demonstration of new approaches,
consequently the strong situations. That means you see a certain
connection between the Iranian dossier and Israeli-Lebanese latest
developments. Of course, I see, and I can explain it by Tel-Aviv’s
assumption that the current intricate situation of the region gives
it the opportunity to strike its two hostile organizations that
threaten its security: these are "Hamas" in Palestine and "Hzbollah"
in Lebanon. I should also mention that this behavior of Israel will
stir up other regional factors, in particularly I don’t exclude that
replying to the actions of Israel, Iran will strengthen the situation
in Iraq. By the way, returning to your first question, I must stress
that the factor of rising oil price has its essential role almost
in all Middle East developments. It is difficult to answer at once
for whom it is profitable but we may analyze it. Is this situation
very profitable for Russia? For some oil-producing Gulf countries,
too. I can say, that circumstance isn’ t profitable for the U.S.,
which uses its country’s reserving funds for its energy needs. The
U.S. has lost the control over the processes as nowadays Israel acts
without U.S. obvious support and approval. Do you see any connection
between the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon by the West’s
pressure and nowadays Â"LebaneseÂ" campaign of Israel? There is no
direct connection. It seems Syria-West discrepancies came round when
Damask yielded the U.N. demands. But if the Syrian troops weren’t
withdrawn from Lebanon whether Israel would act in the same way.
Certainly, no. Because it would mean the involvement of Syria into
the conflict. It would also mean the involvement of other countries,
which have signed intergovernmental, military agreements with Syria. As
a result a destructive, large-scale war would levy in the region. At
the same time I should mention that I don’t consider possible the
U.S., Iran and Syria involvement into this war. There are interesting
versions in the foreign press According to one of them, all it is
done for that reason. That is there is a problem to involve Iran
into the war making it strikes Israel after which the U.S. military
forces will strike Iran. Do you know, the adherents of the theory
of conspiracies can publish any version they want? As I have already
said, there have been such situations in the region but Iran has never
struck Israel. Why should it strike when it always has possibilities
of non-symmetric answers? For example destabilization of the situation
in Iraq, in general, in the Persian Gulf, and if you want, in Caspian
Sea, in case of some developments. Do these processes have their
influence on Armenia? They have their influence on the whole world,
consequently on Armenia, too. But at least in case of two factors the
influence on Armenia is more essential. One of the factors is Diaspora:
Armenians in Lebanon and Jerusalem. The second factor refers just to
Armenia as a state. Being geographically near the hostilities it is
threatened to all negative influences coming from the neighbor region.
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