Non-recognition of the Nagorno Karabagh Republic is a serious geopolitical threat

Yerkir.am
July 14, 2006

The recent developments around Karabagh settlement process made
it clear to those who deal with this issues that a one-sided and
exclusively political approach to it is unacceptable.

In the beginning the international community and several individual
states were viewing the conflict around the collective right to self
determination as merely an obstacle on the way to full realization of
the potential of the South Caucasus for communications and transit
thus transferring the confrontation between Karabagh and Azerbaijan
to the domain of territorial disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The international mediators’ unwillingness to call things by their
names is explained by this: this is why they are unwilling to see the
true causes of the conflict, to silence the true initiator of ethnic
cleansings and full scale military operations.

This results in a distortion of the problem and the conflict followed
by an equalization of the subject of aggression (Azerbaijan) and the
object of aggression (Nagorno Karabagh and Armenia) in terms of guilt
and level of responsibility. This results in an attempt to settle
the issue without the participation of the side that suffered because
of this aggression – Nagorno Karabagh and the Armenian refugees that
fled from the territory of the former Azerbaijani SSR.

The international mediators seem to believe the myth that the
"withdrawal of the Armenian troops" from the territories that appeared
under the control of Nagorno Karabagh as a result of the war launched
by Azerbaijan and the forced return of the Azeri displaced persons
can result in stable and sustainable peace in the region. It should be
noted that the Armenian refugees are never mentioned in this context.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s aggression against the people of Nagorno
Karabagh had not only territorial but also political and legal
consequences. Without taking these consequences into account it
is not possible to achieve a workable and realistic settlement of
the conflict.

The authors of two books – "The Karabagh Conflict: Refugees,
Territories, Security" (published in 2005) and "Azerbaijan against the
Karabagh People. The political-Legal Consequences of Aggression and
Their Impact on the Perspectives of Regional Security" (published in
2006) try to explain the unacceptability of ignoring the humanitarian
and political-legal aspects of the existing situation and their impact
on regional security.

Head of the research department of the Caucasus Media Institute
Sergey Minassian, international lawyer, expert of legal aspects of
the Karabagh conflict Mikhail Aghajanov and chairwoman of the Support
to General Governance NGO Eleonora Asatrian examine the issue on
several levels.

First direction: an attempt to present methods for reparation for
persons who suffered most in the course of the Karabagh conflict,
the Armenian refugees that fled from the former Azerbaijani SSR.

The present stage of the Karabagh conflict started with a humanitarian
crisis – the mass massacres of Armenians in Sumgait and Baku and
the ethnic cleansings of 1988-1991 when about 500 thousand Armenians
were driven out of the Azerbaijani SSR. Most of them still have an
undefined legal status and live in harsh socio-economic conditions.

The issue of protection of property rights of the Armenian population
that was driven out from the former Azerbaijani SSR is viewed as
a mechanism for implementation of Azerbaijan’s international legal
responsibility.

The authors speak not only about material compensation but also about
moral compensation: compensation for the lost Homeland which implies
restoration of the Armenian refugees’ right to live on the territory
of the former Azerbaijani SSR.

Since it is unrealistic to expect that the Republic of Azerbaijan
(which refused to declare itself as the legal successor of the
Azerbaijani SSR) would implement the above mentioned the authors
examine the possibility of Nagorno Karabagh Republic settling the
issue.

The authors believe that Nagorno Karabagh Republic is the only
legal successor of the Soviet Azerbaijan, therefore its sovereign
jurisdiction covers all territories outside the present borders of
Nagorno Karabagh Republic.

The research also examines issues of combatants, refugees, displaced
persons, etc. It is not a secret that some part of the population of
the above-mentioned territories was actively participating in military
actions and was often the initiator of aggression. Naturally, these
people cannot be viewed as refugees or displaced persons.

The authors also try to explain and show that Azerbaijan has exerted
direct domestic and external aggression in the course of the Karabagh
conflict. Domestic aggression was directed at it own citizens of
Armenian origin who were driven out of the country.

External aggression was directed against a new state, Nagorno Karabagh
Republic, that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The
research examines the dynamics of military-technical development
of the conflict, use of various weapons by Azerbaijan, particularly
against peaceful population of Nagorno Karabagh.

Special attention is paid to the increasing militarization of
Azerbaijan in the post-Soviet period which is a destabilizing factor
for regional security and the peaceful settlement of the Karabagh
conflict. At the same time, the perspectives for sustainable and
peaceful settlement of the Karabagh conflict are analyzed in the
context of the new system for regional security.

The authors believe that changes in the status quo can cause bigger
problems for regional security since the military balance around the
conflict in Karabagh can be characterized as a qualitative-quantitative
equality of the sides of confrontation whereby geopolitical factors
play a significant role together with merely technical criteria. Any
changes in this situation can lower the threshold for the possibility
of restarting military actions.

Considering the necessity for preservation of the stable status quo
that excludes the possibility of Azerbaijan’s accumulating resources
for resorting to aggression again, the author site the example of
Eastern Prussia when the international community decided to punish
the aggressor, the Nazi Germany. The latter was deprived of some
geographical, geopolitical platforms from where it
could have started aggression.

The best way out of the existing situation would be recognition
of Nagorno Karabagh Republic by Azerbaijan and the international
community.

Any other approach would block regional communication from the West to
the East which contains serious geopolitical threats for the peoples
of the South Caucasus.

In conclusion we should note that the books were published with
financial assistance from Digranuhi and Edmond Ruhinians and Support
to Total Quality Management NGO.

By Gayane MOVSESSIAN