ARMENIAN DEFENSE MINISTER JOINS RULING PARTY

EurasiaNet, NY
July 24, 2006

In a widely expected move, Armenia’s Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian
has taken a senior leadership position with the ruling Republican
Party amidst an apparent push by the party to retain its political
weight in upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.

Sarkisian, often depicted as a favorite to succeed President Robert
Kocharian, was elected as board chairman of the Republican Party of
Armenia (RPA) at a July 22 congress in Yerevan called to amend the
party’s policy platform and regulations. The post of chairman of
the board was reinstated for the elections, and 28 new members were
appointed to the party’s 42-member board. Prime Minister Andranik
Markarian was elected as the party’s president.

Sarkisian’s decision to join the Republican Party has been scrutinized
as an indicator of political strategies to come among Armenia’s ruling
elite in the run-up to the country’s parliamentary elections in 2007
and presidential elections in 2008. But party members have taken pains
to emphasize that the inclusion of Defense Minister Sarkisian and Prime
Minister Markarian only testifies to the government’s political unity.

"No one has a doubt that Serge Sarkisian would be able to create his
own party, as many other politicians did or intended to," commented
parliamentarian Hranush Hakobian, another Republican Party member, in
an interview with Armnews TV. "But he preferred to join the existing
party instead, thus showing his commitment to avoiding conflicts."

Sarkisian told journalists at the congress that he has no rival in
Armenia, and denied reports of an ongoing conflict with President
Kocharian, adding that he has no plans to resign from his post as
defense minister.

In a 90-second speech to congress participants, Sarkisian, speaking
as if already a party veteran, criticized those who had predicted a
split in the RPA in the past and added that the party was determined
to strengthen the spirit of national unity as Armenia takes on new
challenges. At a briefing following the congress, Sarkisian told
reporters that his election as chairman of the Republican Party board
was not an extraordinary event. "I have cooperated with this party
for a long time now," he said, mentioning that he had run in the 2003
parliamentary elections on the RPA’s candidate list, although not as
a party member. "So we have just made a document correspond to the
reality of the situation," he said.

Parliamentary Speaker Tigran Torosian, vice-president of the RPA,
earlier also advanced that view, describing Sarkisian’s decision to
join the party as "nothing strange."

"Of course, Mr Sarksian is an influential person and the RPA is
an influential political party, if not the most influential one,"
Aravot newspaper quoted Torosian as saying on July 20. "His joining
the RPA is natural."

Outside observers have focused on Sarkisian’s own ambitions for the
presidential elections in 2008, but the defense minister and other
senior party officials at the congress kept mum on that score. In
a July 20 interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Sarkisian
claimed that President Kocharian approved his decision to join the
Republican Party, but stressed that he himself has not decided whether
or not to run for president when Kocharian steps down in 2008. Prime
Minister Markarian told reporters after the congress that a decision
about an RPA presidential candidate will be taken only after next
year’s parliamentary elections.

The May 2007 parliamentary elections, however, also did not feature
on the congress’ agenda, but party leaders did not deny that steps
taken at the gathering were in preparation for next year’s vote.
Sarkisian stated that the RPA would work with other parties in the
elections, adding that the ballot "will be the best elections in
Armenia so far. It is because I want them to be."

The congress demonstrated the Republican Party’s growing political
potential. The party now claims more than 30,000 members, twice its
official number in 2004. In recent weeks, scores of new members have
joined the ranks, not least due to rumors about Sarkisian’s expected
decision to register as a member. At least seven government ministers,
many influential regional governors and community heads, as well as
prominent businessmen took part in the party congress.

Torosian told congress participants that the influx of new members
emphasizes the growing importance of Armenian political parties and
the tendency for consolidation to capitalize on those gains. Torosian
argued that this is a consequence of the constitutional amendments
adopted last November, which enhance the role of the parliament
vis-a-vis the president.

According to Suren Zolian, an independent political analyst, the RPA
stands to take as many as half of the next parliament’s 131 seats.
(Serge Sarkisian himself has said that he would be glad if the
party could win 21 percent of the vote.) However, another political
scientist, Manvel Sarkisian of the Kavkaz Analytical Center, believes
the situation is not that simple. Kocharian and his entourage will more
likely support Bargavach Hayastan, or Prosperous Armenia, a new party
that has been cast as part of the campaign for a "liberal, democratic
Armenia" backed by the West, commented Sarkisian, who is no relation
to the defense minister. While terming the congress an "unprecedented
event in Armenian history" since the ruling party has no explicit
support from the president or "a foreign country," Sarkisian predicted
that conflicts with Prosperous Armenia are likely since the party has
"recruited those who were not allowed to join Bargavach Hayastan."

For now, though, the RPA is taking pains to emphasize its
alignment with the Armenian and Western mainstream. Founded in
1990 as a nationalist party, the group now describes itself as a
"national-conservative party."

"We are a classical conservative party, for which the basic values
are: God, nation, motherland, traditional family, a stable system of
moral values, a liberal economy," Prime Minister Andranik Markarian
said in a speech addressing the congress.

Editor’s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer
specializing in economic and political affairs.