PanARMENIAN.Net

Azerbaijan Won’t Be Allowed to Start War in Karabakh
28.07.2006 13:26 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The military operation in the Codori canyon is just
a political PR campaign launched by Mikhail Saakashvili, head of the
International Relations Department at the Institute of the Political
and Military Analysis Sergey Markedonov told a PanARMENIAN.Net
reporter. In his words, neither Georgians nor Abkhazians control the
territory where the operations started. `This operation gives
Georgians the opportunity to hold talks with the `other state
structure’ of Abkhazia bypassing official Sukhumi. However this
territory is too small to talk about it seriously. It doesn’t even
include the Galsky region mostly inhabited by Georgians,’ Markedonov
said.

At the same time the Russian political scientist underlined that
Azerbaijan’s wish to follow Georgia’s example and launch hostilities
against Nagorno Karabakh is just unsound. `The operation in Kodori is
just a walk while incursion into Karabakh is a lingering and bloody
war Azerbaijan can lose. Karabakh’s security zone is a deeply
echeloned defense while the Defense Army of Karabakh cannot be
compared to a group of Georgian `guerrillas’ led by Emzar
Kvitsiani. The territory of Nagorno Karabakh is really controlled what
cannot be said about the Kodori canyon. There is one more nuance: late
Heydar Aliyev has created an image of a victim for Azerbaijan in the
West. Now, if military operations start in the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict region this image will immediately crack. It will be the end
of Ilham Aliyev and I suppose he understands this. It’s just a
political move. From time to time he just has to tell his people that
`Azerbaijan will liberate its territories. Moreover, Europe, the
U.S. and of course Russia will be against Azerbaijan’s
aggression. Thus, adding the factor of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil
pipeline Azerbaijan will not start war. It just won’t be allowed,’
Markedonov said.