Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
July 28, 2006

Sergey Markedonov: Azerbaijan won’t be allowed to start war in Garabagh

[ 28 Jul. 2006 18:00 ]

The military operation in the Kodori valley is just a political PR
campaign launched by Mikhail Saakashvili, head of the International
Relations Department at the Institute of the Political and Military
Analysis Sergey Markedonov stated (APA).

In his words, neither Georgians nor Abkhazians control the territory
where the operations started. `This operation gives Georgians the
opportunity to hold talks with the `other state structure’ of
Abkhazia bypassing official Sukhumi. However, this territory is too
small to talk about it seriously,’ Markedonov said.
The political scientist underlined that Azerbaijan’s wish to follow
Georgia’s example and launch hostilities against Nagorno Garabagh is
just unsound. `The operation in Kodori is just a walk while incursion
into Garabagh is a lingering and bloody war Azerbaijan can lose.
Garabagh’s security zone is a deeply echeloned defence while the
Defence Army of Garabagh cannot be compared to a group of Georgian
`guerrillas’ led by Emzar Kvitsiani. The territory of Nagorno
Garabagh is really controlled what cannot be said about the Kodori
valley. There is one more nuance: late Heydar Aliyev has created an
image of a victim for Azerbaijan in the West. Now, if military
operations start in the Nagorno Garabagh conflict region this image
will immediately crack. Moreover, Europe, the U.S. and of course
Russia will be against Azerbaijan’s aggression. Thus, adding the
factor of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline Azerbaijan will not
start war. It just won’t be allowed,’ Markedonov said./APA/