NAGORNO-KARABAKH: U.S. MEDIATOR SAYS ELECTIONS NO OBSTACLE TO ACCORD
EurasiaNet, NY
July 31, 2006
Emil Danielyan 7/31/06
A EurasiaNet Partner Post from RFE/RL
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will not necessarily remain unresolved
even if Armenia and Azerbaijan fail to hammer out a framework peace
accord this year, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew
Bryza told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service on July 29.
Bryza is the U.S. co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is tasked
with facilitating negotiations to resolve the conflict. He insisted
that elections due in the two countries in 2007 and 2008 will not
present an insurmountable obstacle to a solution.
Finish The ‘Heavy Lifting’
"I think it’s possible to work through an election season and
still make progress," Bryza said. "It’s up to the [Armenian and
Azerbaijani] presidents as to whether or not they have enough good
will and political courage to do so…. It’s just easier, much easier,
if we get the heavy lifting done now."
Bryza said he hopes that presidents Ilham Aliev and Robert Kocharian
will iron out their differences in the coming months.
"Of course I’m still hopeful," he said. "If I weren’t hopeful, why
would I even want to put in an effort? This isn’t about theater;
it’s about results."
Looking For A Breakthrough
Bryza was speaking in Yerevan after what he described as "encouraging"
talks with Kocharian that marked the start of his first tour of the
conflict zone since his appointment as U.S. co-chair. He replaced
fellow State Department official Steven Mann in that position in
early June, following the failure of Kocharian’s last face-to-face
negotiations with Aliev. That failure all but dashed hopes for a
near-term solution to the Karabakh dispute.
In two subsequent statements, the mediating group’s U.S., French,
and Russian co-chairs indicated their frustration. They said they
will initiate no more Armenian-Azerbaijani talks until the two sides
display greater commitment to a lasting peace.
Bryza, who proceeded to the Karabakh capital, Stepanakert, later on
July 29, said he is visiting the region to get "some more guidance
from the presidents themselves to determine how they would like to
take the process further."
He said he was assured by Kocharian that the Minsk Group plan is
essentially acceptable to Yerevan.
"I enjoyed hearing his account of where things stand and how we got
here," he said. "I felt a constructive, candid attitude on his part.
He was very open. And he helped me think through what sort of
recommendations I might bring to my fellow co-chairs."
‘There Is Political Will Here’
Asked whether he found the kind of "political will" for compromise
that was demanded by the mediators, Bryza replied: "I think there is
political will here, definitely, to keep the process going. There have
been public statements that the [Minsk Group’s proposed] framework,
the principles are agreeable [for Armenia].
"What’s never clear is whether or not there is enough will on both
sides to eliminate or to resolve the distance that still stands between
them," he added. "But I will just say I feel encouraged after today’s
discussions."
Armenian officials have claimed implicitly that the two rounds of
negotiations between Kocharian and Aliev this year collapsed because
the latter backtracked on his earlier acceptance of the key principles
of the peace plan that were officially disclosed by the Minsk Group
co-chairs last month. Bryza, however, was careful not to blame any
of the parties for the deadlock, saying that they both want to "enact
some changes to the ideas that are on the table."
"The principles that are on the table don’t constitute an agreement,"
Bryza said. "They are principles, suggestions. So it’s not possible for
anyone to walk away from an agreement, if there isn’t an agreement."
At the heart of those principles is the idea of holding a
referendum on Karabakh’s status after the liberation of most of the
Armenian-occupied districts in areas of Azerbaijan surrounding the
disputed enclave. Bryza confirmed that the mediators believe the
status should be decided by the "people of Karabakh"
"But the question is how do you define the people of Karabakh? And
there were residents there in 1988 who wish to participate," he added
in a clear reference to the region’s displaced Azerbaijani minority.
"All these things have still to be worked out as part of a broad
package."
No Breach Of Territorial Integrity
Aliev and other Azerbaijani officials have repeatedly stated in recent
weeks that they will never accept any deal that could legitimize
Karabakh’s secession from Azerbaijan. Foreign Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov was quoted by the day.az news service earlier this week
as indicating that Baku is only ready to let the Karabakh Armenians
decide the extent of their autonomy within Azerbaijan.
"The principle of self-determination does not mean a breach of
territorial integrity," Mammadyarov said.
This might explain why the leadership of the self-proclaimed
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) has expressed serious misgivings
about the proposed peace formula.
Bryza, who is apparently the highest ranking U.S. official ever
to visit Karabakh, appeared to downplay Stepanakert’s objections,
implying that Baku and Yerevan have the final say in the peace process.
"It’s really up to presidents Kocharian and Aliev whether or not they
will agree to the formula," he said. "We are just waiting for a sign
from the presidents as to whether or not they would like to restart
a formal process."
‘Now Is The Time’
Bryza, who traveled to Baku on July 30, also said he will meet the
group’s French and Russian co-chairs in Paris early next week to
brief them on the results of his shuttle diplomacy. The mediators
stressed in their recent statements that "now is the time" to resolve
the Karabakh conflict.
Some of them warned earlier that failure to do so before the end of
this year would keep the peace process deadlocked for at least three
more years. They pointed to parliamentary and presidential elections
due in Armenia in 2007 and 2008, respectively, and an Azerbaijani
presidential ballot scheduled for 2008. Many observers believe that it
will be even more difficult for each side to make painful concessions
to the other in the run-up to the polls.
But in an indication of the mediators’ fading hopes for 2006, Bryza
insisted that a Karabakh settlement will be feasible even during the
election period.
"I don’t necessarily feel that there needs to be a hard deadline
on the peace process," he said. "It’s better if we have a sense of
what compromises might be suggested before other political events
[in Armenia and Azerbaijan] move forward. But it doesn’t have to be
by the end of this year."
"I would argue that the elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan don’t pose
an obstacle to reaching an agreement," he continued. "They just pose
an additional complicating factor. It’s up to the presidents to guide
their populations or societies, their voters in whatever direction they
wish (a) to win the vote for themselves and their political parties,
but (b) to build support for the agreement.
"If the presidents succeed, with our help as mediators, in finalizing
and eliminating the final differences with regard to this framework
agreement and if they come up with an agreement that’s mutually
acceptable, that should be a plus in an election," Bryza argued.
"That’s a huge achievement that should actually help political
leaders and their parties to win votes. So it could be useful to
have elections. The is question is, though, will the presidents have
decided to take these tough decisions in time?"
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress