Syria stands to gain from Lebanon’s pain

Brian Whitaker in Damascus
Monday July 31, 2006
The Guardian

Hizbullah’s stock is rising among the Arab public, and the Syrian
regime is making the most of it, reports Brian Whitaker from Damascus

The Bakdash ice-cream parlour is one of the great institutions of old
Damascus, established in 1895 and renowned throughout the city. Among
the more distinguished visitors to have sampled its produce is the
king of Jordan, whose photo hangs prominently on the wall.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbullah, may be too busy just
now to drop in for a pistachio-sprinkled cornet but his photo has
recently joined that of the king. Interspersed between the elegant
chandeliers hanging from Bakdash’s ceiling, meanwhile, are images of
a fist clasping a rifle: the yellow-and-green flags of the Lebanese
Shia movement.

In a street around the corner, the owner of a jewellery shop also sings
the praises of Hizbullah. He’s an Armenian Christian, but that makes
little difference. "It’s the first time that Arabs hit Haifa," he says.

Reaching for a scrap of paper, he draws a rough map of the
Syrian-Lebanese-Israeli border and points to the Shebaa Farms, the
tiny patch of land claimed by Lebanon but still occupied by Israel.

"Five km, 10km – what does it matter? Give it back, sign an
agreement. Finished!"

Less than three weeks into the war in Lebanon, Hizbullah’s standing is
rising dramatically among the Arab public. The reasoning in Damascus
is that, short of annihilating Lebanon’s Shia population, Hizbullah
cannot be destroyed. At some point, the argument goes, Israel will
have to back off and Hizbullah will claim victory for having survived
the onslaught.

In anticipation of this, the Syrian regime, while trying to stay out
of the conflict itself, is seeking to bask in Hizbullah’s glory.
Posters on sale in the streets, and displayed in the back of car
windows, depict President Bashar al-Assad shoulder to shoulder with
Hassan Nasrallah.

"Syria doesn’t have to do very much to be potentially in a position
to gain," said one western diplomat in Damascus.

After years of international isolation, the regime is acquiring
leverage again through its ties with Hizbullah, though political
analyst Sami Moubayed doubts Syria can impose its will on the Lebanese
Shia if acting on its own.

"Only with Syrian-Iranian support can this war come to an end,"
he said. "Bringing Syria alone into talks will not end it."

Damascus would also expect rewards for its help, he added. "The Syrians
need carrots – big carrots." Among these would be a resumption of
talks about the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the lifting of
US-imposed sanctions.

Internally, meanwhile, after a sticky period following the
assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri and the
reluctant withdrawal of its troops from Lebanon, the Syrian regime
looks far more secure. People have rallied round in support of a
popular cause and reformists are once again in the wilderness.

"The Syrian opposition will be silenced by growing dislike of the
United States," Damascus-based commentator Joshua Landis wrote in his
blog. "Syrians are less likely to trust the proposals for democratic
or pro-western change being put forward by the opposition. A month
ago there was considerable attention being paid to Assad’s crackdown
on the opposition. Not today."

Another result of the war is that despite international efforts last
year to end Syrian hegemony over Lebanon, Israeli bombing is driving
the two countries together again.

"Lebanon needs Syria more than ever," Mr Landis wrote. "It needs
Syria to be kind to the many refugees who have found protection and
safety in Syria. The Lebanese economy will be increasingly vulnerable
to Syrian pressure."

In the eyes of many Syrians, this simply proves that President Assad
was right all along when he predicted the Lebanese would regret
casting off the protection of their larger neighbour. His prophecy
that without Syrian troops Lebanon would once again descend into
civil war has not yet been fulfilled, though some Lebanese fear it
may if Israeli attacks continue.

Ultimately, the Damascus regime may emerge as the war’s real winner,
but the stakes are high and so are the risks, especially the risk of
being drawn into direct conflict with Israel. In the last few days,
Israeli warplanes have been probing Syrian airspace and Syrian
forces responded – as they always do in such a situation – with
anti-aircraft fire.

A week ago Syria quietly raised its military alert to the highest level
and cancelled all leave. All units are at full strength, contingency
plans are in place, and troops and equipment have been dispersed in
what one diplomat called a defensive posture.

"They are being very careful not to be provocative," the diplomat said,
though he thought there was still a 20% to 30% chance that unforeseen
events might drag Syria into the war.