TWO-DIGIT GROWTH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND ADMINISTRATIVE CRIMINAL RESOURCE

Lragir.am
31 July 06

The government of Armenia stopped taking pride in the rate of economic
growth in Armenia long ago. The president of Armenia has not cut red
tapes and visited factories for a long time. In fact, it does not
mean that there is no economic growth or the rate slowed down. By
official statistics, two-digit economic growth goes on, and in the
first half of 2006 it totaled over 11 percent. For the government this
has become something usual, however. So usual that they are already
ashamed of talking about it. Moreover, this shame has two levels. The
first is that the two-digit growth remains the decoration of tables
of a group of people. Hence, it is definitely inappropriate to feed
people with official statistical achievements for the simple reason
that people cannot eat it. After all, the elite must realize that it
is even disgusting to eat meat all the time, let alone numbers. It is
not a secret, however, that only one source of shame is hardly enough
to cause a feeling of discomfort among the Armenian government. It is
even too little. Fortunately, there is the second level, however. By
its two-digit rate Armenia is no longer a tiger in the region, or it
is not the only tiger in the region. Especially, compared with our
main rival, Azerbaijan. The GDP of Azerbaijan grew by 40 percent
in the first half of 2006. It is official statistics, of course,
but we have no reason to state that theirs is a lie, ours is not. In
other words, when the government continues supplying the public with
boring figures about the economic growth, it is sure to find itself
in a curious situation because they arouse a smile whenever they are
compared with the Azerbaijani indices.

Unfortunately, the government continues doing something. It continues
persuading the public that despite oil underlying the Azerbaijani
economy the state of Armenia is the best in the region. This thinking,
which is consistently instilled in the public, pursues an aim which is
clear. It "reassures" the public, guaranteeing unchangeable situation
for the government. Therefore, they have stopped feeding the society
with numbers, for it may cause the opposite reaction. They merely
reconcile them with the situation, in other words, they help to stomach
the figures. But it is the case when successful digestion may deeply
ruin the health of the public, and consequently the country. To stomach
this situation means to agree that the level of corruption, black
economy, protectionism that is now will persist. Therefore, generation
of economic growth becomes almost impossible, remaining on the same
sustainable level. As for the distribution of growth, it is impossible
due to the abovementioned vicious phenomena. Definitely, the same
situation is in Azerbaijan, and it would not cause worries if there
were not for the oil factor and 40 percent growth. According to the
Armenian government, this growth does not have a quality. Maybe. But
considering that the absolute volume of the Azerbaijani economy
exceeds the Armenian economy twice, we may say that 40 percent growth
of that economy is equal to 80 percent of economic growth in Armenia.

In other words, in this comparison we may conclude that the economic
growth in Azerbaijan exceeds Armenia nine times. And this quantitative
difference is sure to become qualitative advantage one day.

In such a situation this "reassurance" preached in Armenia and
reflected in the economic policy of the Armenian government directly
threatens national security. Export of several tons of apricots,
building of several elite buildings and use of several information
technologies is not economic quality. The underlying component of
the quality of economy is the possibilities of the persons who have
the wish and ability to participate in this economy. The quality
of the economy is its agents, consumers and producers, and their
relation generates growth. And the fact that economic growth in
Armenia is between 11 and 13 percent over the past 5-6 years shows
that the relationship between the agents of the economy is highly
conventional and highly limited. And if there is a non-quality economy
both in Armenia and in Azerbaijan, it is clear that quantity will
be deciding. And if everything relies on the quantity, it is clear
in what situation Armenia may appear in several years, despite the
quality of elite apartments. It seems that it should be clear for the
government because only the lazy do not say that Armenia should launch
real economic reforms and democratization of the public life to oppose
to oil. This point seems indisputable, and it can be the only path when
the society will not argue with the society. However, the Armenian
government prefers not to argue with the administrative criminal
resource and make a compromise over 11-13 percent growth. In this
case, there is no way out other than that the Armenian society wage
a liberation war for the economy. After all, we defeated Azerbaijan,
and it reports 40 percent economic growth. Let us imagine what a rate
of growth we would report if we defeated ourselves.

JAMES HAKOBYAN

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress