ARMENIAN PAPER EXPANDS ON HIDDEN ASPECTS OF US MEDIATOR’S REGIONAL TOUR

Iravunk, Yerevan
1 Aug 06

The USA has certain levers of influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan
and their leaders may achieve some sort of result in their talks
over Nagornyy Karabakh this year, an Armenian daily has said in
a commentary on the regional tour by the US mediator in the peace
talks. Some statements by Matthew Bryza, newly-appointed US co-chairman
of the OSCE Minsk Group, prove that the USA may use the Karabakh card
against the authorities in the two countries which have "the problem
of power", the paper said. The following is an excerpt from report by
Ovanes Galadzyan in Armenian newspaper Iravunk on 1 August headlined
"`Hairdressing activity’ of Bush’s `barber’ in the South Caucasus";
subheadings have been inserted editorially:

Many people remember [late Armenian Prime Minister] Vazgen Sarkisyan’s
expression: "Armenia is not an orphan’s head for somebody to shave as
he wants." By will of destiny today not only Armenia but developments
in the whole South Caucasus depend on the US official who was earlier
labelled by Armenian propaganda machine as "[US President George]
Bush’s barber", i.e. US co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group Matthew
Bryza.

Bryza’s optimism

The South Caucasus visit of this diplomat was short but productive.

He managed to visit Yerevan as well as Stepanakert , Tbilisi and
Baku. The Karabakh conflict was an official agenda of this tour. But
it is clear that US global interests in the region, including those
connected with Iran, could not but was touched on during the visit,
as one should not rule out that the Israeli-Lebanese conflict might
expand and involve Iran. Along with this or maybe despite this,
one should not rule out dramatic developments in Georgia and around it.

But let us speak about our "barber". For instance, after meeting
[Armenian President] Robert Kocharyan, Matthew Bryza said: "I see
that there is political will for settlement of the conflict, and
philosophy on the basis of our suggestions is acceptable." [Armenian
Defence Minister] Serzh Sarkisyan’s and [Armenian Foreign Minister]
Vardan Oskanyan’s consent to the option offered by the co-chairmen have
become the basis for the US co-chairman’s "optimism". Given that the
pro-Western wing of the opposition and first of all representatives of
the former authorities have said that there is no other alternative for
settlement, it becomes clear that the USA may hope for no opposition
plans to take masses to the streets.

The fact that this time Bryza did not met representatives of the
opposition may be explained not only by short timetable of the visit
but also by the fact that at present (but this does not mean that in
future as well) Americans are not eager to establish "orange democracy"
in Armenia and maybe will try to trust on the Armenian authorities once
again. On the whole, Bryza hung his ordinary sword of Damocles over
the head of the Armenian authorities stressing that the Armenian-US
relations will develop as much as the process of democratization
develops in Armenia.

Bryza’s hints to authorities

But the most important of Bryza’s statements is the one made in
an interview with Radio Liberty. Asked about the possibility of
the Karabakh conflict settlement this year, and whether it may be
delayed till 2009 in case of failure, he replied: "Of course, it may
be possibly settled and it would be beneficial for the authorities of
the two countries to meet elections with the settled conflict. But
the elections are not an obstacle for the negotiations process as
well. Simply it is easier to settle the issue when political processes
do not become tense."

That is to say, in saying this "Bush’s barber" tells Kocharyan and
[Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev not to hope that even if they
manage to postpone the conflict settlement till the end of the
year, nevertheless election campaigns will not save them from the
need to continue the talks, and in that case the USA may start its
"hairdressing activity" in Armenia and Azerbaijan and turn them into
an "orphan’s head". Both in Armenia and Azerbaijan the authorities
have the problem of power, for the sake of which many things may be
sacrificed. In our case "Armenia’s involvement in the Millennium
Challenge programme is the best way for the USA to be sure that
Armenia is developing in a democratic way", and our administration
will hardly refuse from 238m dollars allocated under that programme.

Bryza’s contacts with Karabakh

But we should note that there are certain delicate elements in this
time "hairdressing activity" of Bryza which are evidence of some
softening of the pro-Azerbaijani stance. Thus, he directly pointed
at the fact that Lacin as well as Kalbacar [districts of Azerbaijan]
had been included in the suggestions. As for the referendum on the
status, the Karabakh people themselves should resolve the problem.

"But the point is who should be considered the Karabakh people. There
are also those who lived here in 1988 and want to take part in the
referendum too. All these problems should be considered as part
of the agreement package," Bryza said hinting at the Azerbaijani
minority ousted from Karabakh. Moreover, it is notable that the top
US official visited Stepanakert and travelled there from Yerevan but
not from Baku. [Passage omitted: statements of Karabakh officials
after Bryza’s visit]

We should mention that Matthew Bryza’s contacts with the NKR [Nagornyy
Karabakh Republic] authorities are not new. Being appointed as US
co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, he visited the NKR representative
office in the USA ignoring the fact that the Azerbaijani side would
not like that. [Passage omitted: history of Karabakh talks]

Moreover, by establishing close relations with the NKR authorities,
Bryza is gaining levers to affect domestic political situation
in Armenia via Stepanakert, and this will make the [Armenian]
administration aspiring to remain in power more vulnerable during the
pre-election period. [Passage omitted: internal political processes
in Armenia]

Anyway, this time Bryza implemented very serious "hairdressing
activity" in our region, in particular, making both wings of the
Armenian authorities understand that they may have parliamentary and
presidential election campaigns accompanied by the Karabakh talks
which may undermine any power scenario and make those elections guided
by Washington.