ARMENIAN DEFENCE MINISTER MAKES A MOVE

Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
Aug 3, 2006

Serzh Sarkisian’s elevation to a leading post in the governing party
seen as the first shot in the election campaign.

By Diana Markosian in Yerevan

The recent congress of the Republican Party, the leading member of
Armenia’s governing coalition, saw the second most powerful man in
the country, defence minister Serzh Sarkisian, elected chairman of
the party’s board.

On one level the move meant very little, as Sarkisian has been
working closely with the party for years. But he formally joined the
Republicans only a week before the meeting, and his elevation is widely
being seen as the party’s first move to win next year’s parliamentary
elections – and perhaps also an opening bid by Sarkisian to run for
the presidency in 2008.

The congress also re-elected Prime Minister Andranik Margarian as
party chairman.

Sarkisian has been a close associate of President Robert Kocharian for
more than 20 years, since the days when they both worked in Communist
youth league or Komsomol in Nagorny Karabakh in Soviet times. He
has served as Armenian defence minister twice, most recently since
May 2000.

The Armenian constitution prohibits Kocharian from running for a
third term when his term expires in 2008, leaving Sarkisian a leading
contender to replace him.

However, many opposition politicians and analysts say it is
inappropriate for the country’s defence minister to be associated with
one political party. Several observers pointed out that the previous
defence minister, career officer General Vagharshak Harutyunian, was
dismissed in 2000 on the grounds that he was too engaged in politics.

"Of course, Serzh Sarkisian has a right to engage in politics actively,
it’s his civil right under the constitution," said political analyst
Stepan Grigorian. "But if that happens, he should leave his defence
post."

Asked by IWPR whether he was contravening the constitutional
requirement that "the army should have no party allegiances and
be neutral", Sarkisian said, "It’s true the law says that the army
belongs to no party and is neutral, but my being chairman of the
board does not introduce any new element.

"What’s the difference, when I’ve been collaborating with the
Republican Party for some time and was second on the party’s list
in the last parliamentary election? Nothing has changed, the only
difference being that this entire process has now been officially
registered."

On the possibility that he might be positioning himself to replace
Kocharian, Sarkisian insisted, "My friends can testify that I have
never had the ambition to be president."

Sarkisian has never admitted an interest in becoming Armenia’s next
president, although his name is frequently mentioned as a contender.

The Republican Party congress also saw many businessman, government
officials, regional governors and the mayor of Yerevan join the party,
strengthening its reputation as the party of power. Several deputies
from the People’s Party group in parliament, who are for the most
part businessmen, also joined up.

Tigran Torosian, the speaker of parliament and deputy chairman of
the party’s ruling board, said the strengthening of his party was
a positive development. "Political life in Armenia is becoming more
mature, though not as quickly as one would like," he said.

Torosian was happy to agree that joining the Republican Party was
now seen as a route to high office in Armenia.

Critics say this trend as a setback for democracy.

"The Republican Party has concentrated its security resources in
the person of the defence minister, its financial resources are
represented by oligarchs and its administrative resources [allowing
it to influence elections] are held by leaders of local government
and ministers," said Grigorian.

"These people are uniting not around some idea, but around an
aspiration to keep power, which is a very dangerous scenario,"
opposition leader and former defence minister Vazgen Manukian told
IWPR.

Political analyst Aghasi Yenokian warned, "After the special congress
of the Republican Party, Armenia is moving towards a one-party
system. A strong party has been created – so strong that no other
pro-government party will want to oppose or rival it.

"The opposition has its own particular characteristics – it’s quite
malleable and associates itself with certain figures in power –
so it won’t want to pit itself against [the Republican Party] either."

The Republican Party is not, however, the only pro-government political
force. A new party, Bargavach Haiastan (Prosperous Armenia), set up
by top businessman Gagik Tsarukian, has widely been seen as a support
base for President Kocharian for his last two years in office.

There is some tension between the two parties. Bargavach Haiastan
has been registered for three years, but has not yet held a founding
congress. This drew some denigrating comments from Sarkisian and
other Republican leaders, to the effect that their rivals could not
yet consider themselves a proper party.

Tsarukian was among a handful of outsiders asked to attend the
Republican congress, but he did not take up the invitation.

Manukian said the activation of these two pro-government parties
should serve as a wake-up call for the opposition. He predicted that
the two could expect to win 30 to 40 per cent of the vote, and said
the opposition needed to consolidate in order to maximise its appeal
in next year’s parliamentary election.

Diana Markosian is a correspondent for À1+ television in Yerevan.

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