A FRIEND FULL OF GAS
by Alexander Kabakov
Kommersant, Russia
Aug. 9, 2006
The Price Of The Question
The average observer, a thinking consumer of openly accessible
political and economic news, will be mystified by the Russian-Armenian
natural gas problem. In the public consciousness, the word "gas" has
been associated lately with political pressure on Ukraine, and that
pressure is logical, whether it is correct from the point of view
of international relations or not. Some say that the Russians are
acting unconscionably to take revenge with their energy resources on
the Orange Ukrainian democrats who defeated pro-Kremlin forces the
year before last. Others approve of that revenge because the overly
independent should be put in their places by reminding them whose
hand turns the valve. But no one, not even the most naive, fails to
understand the essence of what is going on.
The situation in Armenia is completely different. Unlike loudly
independent Ukraine and arrogant Georgia, Armenia has had an
unswervingly pro-Russian orientation. A faithful friend might expect
an allowance to be made in the form of cheap gas in light of the
friendly feelings and good behavior. But then again… It turns
out that obedient Armenia is being charged as much as willful (even
pro-American!) Georgia. Can’t Russia be cajoled somehow? It could do
Armenia a good deed if it wanted to.
Of all the possible explanations for Russia’s behavior, one cynical
one sticks in the mind. It is that Armenia has been used to lend
credence to the official Russian account of the causes of the gas war
with Ukraine. That account sounds like a quotation from a Hollywood
action film. "Nothing personal. It’s only business." Please. They are
even charging their friends money. It’s the law of the market and
nothing to do with the Ukrainian Orange. Armenia was just the most
convenient demonstration model. They even offered it credit for the
more expensive gas, just as they did Ukraine. And if you don’t want
credit, then pay with property like our real friends the Belarusians…
Leaving aside ethical fine points, the plan makes sense. But, as it
often happens with Russian foreign policy strategies, they failed
to reckon with at least one possible scenario that will completely
foil their plans. What will happen just as soon as that pipe from
Iran stretches onto Armenian soil? Russia had a faithful strategic
ally, whose faithfulness was controlled by Gazprom. Now there will be
one more offended and annoyed state in the Caucasus independent of
Gazprom. It is well known that there are those who are always ready
to soothe the offended and even help them materially. In any case,
Armenia already has a plan for individual partnership with NATO and
money is already on its way from America.