STRATEGIC INDIFFERENCE WITH CONSEQUENCES
by Aram Karapetian
Translated by Elena Leonova

Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, No. 171, August 16, 2006, EV
Agency WPS
What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
August 16, 2006 Wednesday

Political processes in Armenia could distance it from Russia; The
impression is that having gained all it wanted from Yerevan, Moscow
has now lost all interest in Armenia. And if there’s no interest,
there’s also no understanding of what is happening in Armenia. The
situation can be summed up as follows: strategic indifference instead
of strategic partnership.

The way things are going, Armenian-Russian relations may soon be
ruptured so severely as to make any prospect of strategic alliance
impossible. The impression is that having gained all it wanted from
Yerevan, Moscow has now lost all interest in Armenia. Indeed, Yerevan
is firmly tied into the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization;
Russian companies have bought and are still buying everything Armenia
has to offer – factories, profitable construction contracts… And
if there’s no interest, there’s also no understanding of what is
happening in Armenia. The situation can be summed up as follows:
strategic indifference instead of strategic partnership.

Full-fledged, fully-engaged relations have now been reduced to
infrequent contacts at the level of ruling elites. No one in Moscow
seems to care that in Armenia – as in many other CIS countries – the
ruling elite is seriously corrupt, at the very least, if not actually
criminalized. With the approval of its current authorities, Armenia
is gradually turning into a clan-corruption state, divided between
the Karabakh clan and the Yerevan clan, who share spheres of influence.

How is Russia reacting to this? Not at all, mostly; it’s keeping
silent. That amounts to tacit support for Armenian President Robert
Kocharian and his team. Russia is turning a blind eye to the fact
that for the sake of retaining power, those people are gradually
steering Armenia away from Russia. Very soon, the Americans may gain a
footing in Armania – not American investment, but the Pentagon’s radar
stations. The Kocharian administration preferred not to publicize
the details of a recent visit to Yerevan by US State Department
representative Matthew Bryza, the new American co-chairman of the
OSCE’s Minsk Group. While promoting a new conflict regulation plan
for Nagorno-Karabakh, Bryza was also testing the waters for the
possibility of basing two American radars in Armenia. These may not
be very significant from the military standpoint, but Washington
considers it important to establish a presence in Armenia, as it has
in Georgia – with all the consequences this implies.

Apart from lackluster contacts with the Armenian ruling elite, Moscow
seems to have no other effective levers of influence in Yerevan. And
this is all because at some point in the past, somebody in Moscow
declared a principle: we won’t work with opposition groups in CIS
countries, we’ll only work with the incumbent governments – whatever
they may be like. This principle led Russia to make mistakes in
relations with Georgia, followed by further mistakes in relations with
Ukraine. Mistakes in relations with Armenia seem to be just around the
corner. The Americans, in contrast, show no reluctance to make contact
with opposition groups – and profit from doing so, as their experience
in Georgia shows. Russia’s priorities seem to lie elsewhere: outward
stability, and the predictability of existing regimes in CIS countries.

In the case of Armenia, however, there is no predictability. Here’s an
obvious example: in July, President Kocharian did not go to Moscow for
the CIS summit – he said he had a cold. It could happen to anyone, at
all. But while the summit was under way, Kocharian was seen swimming
in the cold waters of Lake Sevan. His demarche worked – but Moscow
chose not to "escalate" the incident.

Escalation will happen anyway. Armenia’s calm is all on the surface.

Only outside observers can believe that last spring’s unrest over the
referendum on constitutional amendments has died down, and President
Kocharian and his team have everything under control. Elections
are coming up in Armenia: a parliamentary election in 2007 and a
presidential election in 2008. The political processes starting
in Armenia this autumn will shatter the illusion that all is
well. One important detail should be noted: Armenia now has hardly
any pro-Russian opposition parties. And the opposition is determined
to win.