IRANIAN PRESIDENT BRINGS INTRIGUING POSSIBILITIES TO TBILISI

The Messenger, Georgia
Aug. 21, 2006

On August 14-15, the Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran, Mehdi Safari,
visited Georgia. In a development labeled by some as ‘sensational’,
the visit concluded with President Saakashvili inviting Iranian
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad himself to Tbilisi. Unsurprisingly, this
made waves given the somewhat tense (to put it mildly) relationship
between Iran and Georgia’s key ally, the USA.

The Russian media immediately painted this step as a rebellious
anti-American move; indeed, some Georgians as well aired concern
that this could have a negative influence on all-crucial Georgian-US
relations. For certain experts, however, Saakashvili’s invitation
resounds with a far more subtle tone than that.

These experts presume that any diplomatic overtures to Tehran
from Tbilisi have the tacit approval of the White House. Georgian
analysts, in a perhaps overly generous estimation of Saakashvili’s
cachet as a statesman, suggest that Tbilisi could be stepping into
the role of mediator between Washington and Tehran, a position
hitherto tenuously played by Moscow. Georgian experts speculate that
Tbilisi would be a more trustworthy substitution for the Kremlin in
discussions between Iran and the West, as Russian intervention is of
questionable helpfulness. Political analyst Soso Tsintsadze, speaking
with Rezonansi, argued that after Putin and Ahmadinejad met, Iranian
leadership, far from making concessions, became even more radical.

Whether or not Saakashvili is on deck to take over as a mediator,
it is too soon to tell, but a meeting of the Georgian and
Iranian presidents should take no unintended toll on relations
between Georgia and the West. Georgian pundits point to the Iranian
president’s trip to Azerbaijan, which befell no ill on US-Azerbaijani
relations. Additionally, Armenia and Central Asian post-Soviet states
are becoming more open to interactions with Tehran, and don’t seem
to fear any diplomatic reprisal from Washington.

The Russian media reports that Iranian diplomatic circles, meanwhile,
are not pinning any outsized expectations on the possible visit.

Still, it’s a promising opening for Tbilisi, as there are serious
shared economic interests between Iran and Georgia which could make
their way to the table. Iran wants to pipe its natural gas northwest
for sale, and Georgia has a vital need to find an alternative
to Russian natural gas supplies. There is already a history of
cooperation-when faced with a severe energy crisis last winter as
gas failed to make its way south, Iran immediately came to Georgia’s
assistance by supplying the country with natural gas.

Despite a plurality of nearby nations with significant natural gas
reserves, Georgia is not spoilt for choice in meeting its energy
needs. Kazakhstan natural gas is transported through Gazprom-owned
pipelines. Azerbaijan, until recently, was not extracting adequate
gas for domestic consumption and had to lean on a Russian supply. As
the vast Shah Deniz field comes online, Azerbaijan will finally enjoy
a surplus, exporting what it doesn’t use through Georgia to Erzerum
(Turkey). Georgia will be able to dip into a share of the gas,
but it won’t be enough to replace the natural gas lifeline Russia
dangles south.

A deal between Tehran and Tbilisi, although beset by myriad political
and logistical concerns, would have the potential to bear some valuable
fruit for each country. Iran could gain a foothold in a market which
a steppingstone to Europe, and Georgia could finally wean itself off
of Russian natural gas. A meeting between Saakashvili and Ahmadinejad,
then, would surely be intensely watched by eyes from around the map.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress