Turkish Daily News
July 13, 2006 Thursday
Pipeline And Seaport Security
Although it is deprived of oil and natural gas resources, owing to its
geographic position Turkey is about to become one of the most
important transit pipeline countries in the world in the next few
years since our country is not only a key country in terms of
geopolitics but also lies between Europe and a region that accounts
for most of the world’s oil production.
In this context it is possible to talk about an extended Eurasian
project, which the United States purportedly aims to bring into
existence in the region surrounding the Caspian Sea. China and Russia
are not included in this plan, which is whetting the appetite of the
major powers.
Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan — project
countries bounded by the Caspian — have 4.5 billion tons of proven
and 18 billion tons of potential reserves. According to forecasts,
total exports of these countries will reach 52 million tons in 2005,
140 million tons in 2010 and 215 million tons in 2015. The Caspian
region will be the producer of 4.7 million barrels daily, most of
which will be available for export, a figure that can by no means be
underestimated, considering daily oil exports of Saudi Arabia are 7.6
million barrels and Iran 1.9 million barrels.
Pipelines in the surrounding areas:
This is how the need for transporting energy produced in the world’s
biggest reserve basin to the West, primarily through Turkey, emerges
on the basis of a number of criteria.
Oil from the Persian Gulf, except for Iraqi oil flowing through the
Kirkuk-Yumurtalik line, does not concern Turkey, which shows that
Turkey will be the transit line for Caspian oil especially as well as
for Russian and Iranian natural gas. In this context the
1,580-kilometer-long Tengiz (Kazakh)-Novorossisk pipeline with 26
million tons of annual throughput capacity and the Atirau-Samara line
inside Russia with a 15 million/ton annual capacity are important to
us. The fact that oil passing through these pipelines flows into
Russia and not Europe, and their lack of usefulness, particularly for
European Union countries, attaches particular importance to the 1,730
kilometer Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline with a 50 mln/ton
throughput capacity. In addition, there are plans to extend the
project by including Kazakh oil in the BTC. To realize this, the Aktau
(Kazakh-Baku) line will be built.
Another ongoing project planned in Caspian countries that concerns
Turkey is the Baku-Tblisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, which is
currently under construction. The following pipelines and pipeline
projects that extend to Western Europe from the Black Sea and bypass
the Turkish straits are:
Burgaz (Bulgaria)-Dedeagac (Greece) (350 km) 30 mln/ton — at project
level
Burgaz-Vlore (Albania) 35 mln/ton — at project level
Baku-Supsa (Georgia) 6 mln/ton — under operation
Odesa-Brodi (inside Ukraine) — operates at 40 mln/ton
In addition, there are the Baku-Novorossiysk (Russia), Tengiz
(Kazakhstan)-Novorossiysk and Baku-Mohachkale (Caucasus)-Novorossiysk
pipelines, which all enable the export of Kazakh and Azerbaijani oil
to the Black Sea, to be shipped on vessels. These pipelines going
around Turkey aim to bring natural gas and oil to world markets,
particularly to Europe. Even though direct pipelines to Europe going
around Turkey are outside the scope of this article, the only routes
apart from the Turkish straits, which are unsuitable for large-scale
transport, available for energy pumped to the Black Sea and which has
no alternative other than being shipped by sea from that point on, are
the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline and other potential pipelines that can be
connected to Ceyhan. However, it makes better sense to view the
revolution and possibilities brought by the BTC, which forced Russia
to a breaking point where it would have to realize Turkey’s strategic
position in energy transportation in view of the existing pipelines.
BTC and Caspian region
The fate of Central Asian and Caucasian oil under Russia’s control
until now was changed when Azerbaijani oil produced in the Caspian Sea
was pumped to Ceyhan through the BTC. It wouldn’t be a far-fetched
assumption to say that not only the fate of Caspian oil but also the
fate of Caspian countries was changed. For the last 15 years,
strategists have been preoccupied with how Russia — which has been
increasingly using its oil and natural gas as a political weapon —
would act in delivering Caspian energy resources to the world market
and whether it would place countries of the region in a difficult
situation, in such a situation where a pipeline such as the BTC did
not exist.
The preliminary engineering work on the project launched by persistent
efforts of the United States, which saw the risk of Russia using such
a weapon 14 years ago, began on Nov. 15, 2000. The Turkish Petroleum
Corporation (TPAO) would hold 6.35 percent of BTC shares while the
BTC’s major partner, BP Exploration (Caspian) Ltd., would have 30.10
percent of shares, according to this project.
The BTC traverses Azerbaijan and Georgia — the two most important
countries of the Caucasus, one of the world’s most unstable regions —
while it bypasses Armenia, which is at war with Azerbaijan. Meanwhile,
work to bring in oil from Kazakhstan for pumping enough oil to feed
the pipeline has been concluded between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
As well as the completion of this pipeline, which created great
repercussions in the world, completion of the Baku-Tblisi-Erzurum
(BTE) pipeline to export natural gas from the Shah Deniz gas field in
the Caspian Sea to Europe through Turkey, and the first gas being
pumped into to the Azerbaijani section of this pipeline, are also good
news of projects completed regarding Turkey’s energy pipelines.
The Russian Federation, which initially objected to U.S. attempts to
pass Caspian oil through an alternative route, namely Turkey, wanted
to prevent former Soviet republics from becoming independent from
Russia. An alternative route would allow Caspian countries to access
the world market at volumes and prices they set independently of
Russia. However, giving up on its Caspian policy after realization of
the project by U.S. efforts, Russia started to concentrate on a
strategy that would make good use of Turkey’s highly advantageous
position as a transit country. Russia now seems to have understood
that Turkey will not let 145 million tons of Caspian oil pumped into
the Black Sea annually be shipped through the Turkish straits for
security reasons as well as for physical restrictions.
Russia and the United States have achieved a political balance in the
Black Sea. Turkey’s rights arising from the 1936 Treaty of Montreux
prevent Russia from pressuring Turkey to allow heavier tanker traffic
in the straits since Russia has now understood that such pressure
would lead to Turkey backing the United States to assert a stronger
presence in the Black Sea region. Russia, having changed strategy in
light of these facts and accepted a political and commercial logic in
its energy policy, is now making plans to make better use of Turkey’s
geographic position to transport oil from the Turkish Black Sea coast
to Ceyhan. Russia’s plans include pumping natural gas and oil to
points further beyond Ceyhan, even to Israel. Another issue worthy of
attention is the potential of Israel — a serious consumer of energy
— to make money on pumping the oil it buys to Southern Asia through
the Ashkelon-Elyat pipeline, which traverses the Red Sea.
Work on pipeline security:
In case all of these pipeline projects are brought to completion,
Turkey, which will then be a significant transit country —
particularly the town of Ceyhan, the end point of most of these
pipelines, will gain strategic status and importance. It is highly
possible that the Ceyhan Port might reach a status similar to that of
Rotterdam, the world’s most important oil port.
However, Caspian oil being pumped down to the eastern Mediterranean
and the Middle East, one of the most troubled regions of the world,
necessitates serious measures to be taken on the part of Turkey in
terms of gulf and terminal security. Security measures tailored to fit
the particularities of the Middle East, abounding with the world’s
bloodiest terrorist organizations, from the pipelines’ point of entry
into our borders, even gathering intelligence and deterring action
beyond our borders, are crucial.
Having fully grasped the importance of the matter, Turkey might be
considered to have laid out the procedures to ensure oil and natural
gas transportation and related security issues to a certain extent in
accordance with the requirements of our day. However, this is not to
say that these procedures and regulations do not provide a clear
explanation of the protection of our ports acting as oil and natural
gas terminals.
Pipeline security and uninterrupted functioning of pipelines are
important national economy and national security issues. At this
point, the security of vessels transporting energy resources within
and outside of Turkey’s territorial waters is of utmost importance in
terms of being a reliable transit country. Sabotage of the
Kirkuk-Yumurtalik pipeline has rendered this pipeline
dysfunctional. The same situation could emerge in the Caucasus,
triggered by the enmity of Armenia against Azerbaijan or potential
initiatives and provocations from other powers in Russia and the
Caucasus and their collaborators at home, who resort to ploys or
playing games in the region.
Despite everything, establishing a special force to secure the safety
of the BTC and assigning the gendarmerie forces the task of ensuring
security on other pipelines demonstrate that Turkey’s approach to the
matter is serious. According to media reports, security measures so
far taken and put into effect concerning the pipelines, the
responsibility of which lies with the state-owned Turkish Pipeline
Company (BOTAS), are:
– BTC crude oil pipeline security: The part of the pipeline in Turkey
during its construction was protected by five gendarmerie stations and
22 gendarmerie squads. Ten gendarmerie stations and 22 gendarmerie
squads will be protecting the pipeline during its operation.-
Iraq-Turkey crude oil pipeline security: This line is under protection
by 21 gendarmerie stations. The remaining three pipelines
(Batman-Dortyol, Ceyhan-Kirikkale, Selmo-Batman) are being protected
by security units under general safety and security rules.-In
addition, work directed towards systems including developments in
crude oil pipeline security and moving pipelines in areas of
settlement outside these areas is under way. A motorcycle squad
patrolling the area 24 hours a day is being planned in this context.
Security of the Ceyhan Port:
Protecting its new position as one of the world’s new energy
crossroads and to further enhance its capacity is of vital importance
in terms of our economic interests.
At this point, total security of the Ceyhan Port and Iskenderun Bay
asserts itself as an issue as important as the security of pipelines
passing through Turkey.
Security of the Port of Samsun, which is the most likely candidate to
become the starting point for the pipelines, is also important from
this point of view.
Having one of greatest naval and air forces of the world, particularly
in the Mediterranean, and having established total control over the
eastern Mediterranean owing to this military power, is a significant
advantage in this context. Northern Cyprus, which faces the Gulf of
Iskenderun, is of crucial importance. At this point all pressure from
the EU or the United States to pull out of Cyprus should be resisted
at all costs. It shouldn’t be forgotten that Britain is not giving up
two of its bases in Cyprus although it has shut down many of its bases
across the world.
The U.S. very recently set up a military command center close to Baku
on the Caspian Sea and two radio stations to be administered from that
command center in close proximity to the Russian and Iranian
border. The United States’ purpose is to be able to keep suspicious
vessels and planes as well as land operations under control and to
monitor all wireless communication, including cellular
phones. Applying this security measure set up at the starting point of
the BTC pipeline against terrorist activity symmetrically in the Gulf
of Iskenderun region and even on northern Cypriot soil at Cape Zafer
in Karpaz could be of great use in terms of security, and it would
also signal the permanence of Turkey’s presence in Cyprus.
Our Southern Sea Field Command has an effective dominance in the
eastern Mediterranean, where clearly more and more pipelines will lead
to. However, in addition to such a military force, specialized units
that can more effectively ensure seaport and shore security have been
organized in developed countries. The Coast Guard Command, founded in
Turkey in 1982 on a very sound decision, is the key power that can
carry out this function.
The role and power of our naval forces are acknowledged in NATO’s
Operation Active Endeavour in the Mediterranean and other
international operations carried out under BLACKSEAFOR and provide a
high degree of security.
Although the level of security in these two seas in general has
reached a state of perfection, setting up a more effective system of
control in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean in accordance with
changing conditions and taking precautions against elements posing
risks and threats are important for our country in military, political
and economic terms. The presence of a deterrent, preventive, effective
and flexible security system against risks and threats to our economic
assets and interests as well as against terrorist activity is a
guarantee as important for states and institutions in economic
cooperation with us as it is for us. While the dimension of current
and potential threats is not of a scale our armed forces cannot
tackle, our sea and land forces being better organized to combat
terrorist activity, renewing equipment and training to this purpose
are important in terms of continuation of oil and natural gas flow
from Eurasia and building confidence for starting new projects in
countries of the region.
Effective security factors:
Political issues in the eastern Mediterranean, the lack of authority
and security in the countries of the region and the presence of
terrorist organizations as well as the proximity of these to Ceyhan
are issues meriting attention. Potential threats coming from the sea
include transportation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), human,
drug and arms trafficking, and terrorist activity. The possibility of
vessels being used as instruments of terrorism should be paid
attention to. It would be beneficial to enhance checkpoint security
and have vessels entering our territorial waters file a
declaration. Work on establishing a Sea Security Coordination Center
should be intensified in this context. Radar, observation, listening
and monitoring systems should be set up for control, which is more
effective and deterring.
Even though the inventory of the Coast Guard Command seems to be
adequate for protecting and guarding our 8,300-kilometer-long coast
line, the Ceyhan and Samsun ports will soon work at a higher capacity
and, parallel to this, the volume of traffic in these ports will
significantly intensify, increasing the burden at these two
ports. Although five new AB412 helicopters, renovation of three CN-235
helicopters for coastal security purposes, 12 KAAN-33 coast guard
boats and six coast guard type 80 boats, which are being planned to be
added into the armed forces’ inventory, would significantly help the
command to carry out its duty as expected, it would be wise to rapidly
and continuously renew equipment and platforms in accordance with the
ever-hanging conditions.
The intensive efforts of the U.S. Coast Guard for coastal security
following the terrorist acts of Sept. 11 are important for proving the
sensitivity of the issue as ports extending over a large area, and the
fields where these ports open to the sea, allow terrorist
organizations that try to make maximum use of today’s advanced
technology and weaponry to move comfortably. We need to grasp this
fact and increase the number of flying platforms of the Coast Guard
Command. Another issue worthy of attention is the possibility of
criminal organizations draining toxic waste into areas close to our
shores.
As some circles speculate, the question of whether the amount of money
Turkey will spend on all these security measures would be covered by
the estimated $300 million from the BTC is a matter of mathematical
calculation. However, ensuring the sustainable energy security of our
country, which imports 72 percent of its energy and creates surplus
value in the economy through rational policies, employing the
advantages of Turkey’s geopolitical significance and increasing the
country’s power and potential to supply energy for the rest of the
world, is also important. Our gains will be worth the expense in any
case and will allow Turkey to ascend higher in the world as it
deserves as well as enhance our relations with the countries of the
Caspian region and the Central Asian Turkic republics.
Table:
Inventory of the Turkish Coast Guard Command:
Floating platforms:
12 – 80 Class boats
5 – Kaan-29 Class boats
18 – Kaan-15 Class boats
4 – SAR-35 Class boats
10 – SAR-33 Class boats
10 – Turkish-type boats
8 – 70-ton boats
10 – Metal coastal patrol craft
Flight platforms:
9 – AB-412 EP helicopters
3 – CASA-CN 235 aircraft *Ali Kulebi is acting president of the
National Security Strategies Research Center (TUSAM). He can be
contacted at [email protected]
Copyright 2006 Financial Times Information
Global News Wire – Asia Africa Intelligence Wire
Copyright 2006 Turkish Daily News Source: Financial Times Information
Limited – Middle East Intelligence Wire
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
