CASPIAN MILITARY EXERCISE HIGHLIGHTS REGION’S WEAKNESS

Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
Aug. 21, 2006

A counter-terrorism exercise soon to begin on the shores of the Caspian
is a sign of growing militarisation in the region, stemming from the
increasing polarisation of interests surrounding the oil-rich sea,
say observers.

The Rubezh-2006 exercise, organised within the framework of the
Collective Security Treaty Organisation, CSTO, is due to take
place on August 24-29 near the Kazak port city of Aktau. It will
be the first joint military exercise undertaken by CSTO countries,
and will involve 2,500 members drawn from various armed services of
member states, with Russia, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the
principal participants. Uzbekistan, which has recently rejoined the
CSTO, will send observers, while the two other pact members, Belarus
and Armenia, will not be taking part.

All the countries in the Caspian region are trying to secure their
oil and gas resources from the threat of terrorism. An incident in
this region, especially in a disputed territory, could lead to an
international conflict, hit the economic and energy security of
several countries at once, harm the investment climate and cause
severe ecological problems.

For Kazakstan, the safety of its Caspian infrastructure is of
particular importance, since its plans to increase energy exports over
the next few years depend in large part on Caspian shelf production.

The growing militarisation is connected with mutual mistrust
among countries in the region, say analysts. Iranian media have
speculated that the United States is using Azerbaijan to create a
military counterweight to Iran on the Caspian. It is possible that
the exercise conducted by the CSTO – in which Russia is dominant –
represents a response to concerns about United States involvement in
developing Kazakstan’s navy. Observers say Russia is leaning more and
more towards the Iranian view that countries from outside should be
banned from having armed forces in the Caspian Sea.

Experts say the US is trying to step up the pressure on Iran, as
well as to defend its own investments in Azerbaijan and Kazakstan. It
is also trying to guarantee the security of the strategically vital
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

A military presence on the Caspian would give the United States an
opportunity to at least partially offset its weakening influence in
Central Asia, as seen in the closure of its airbase in Uzbekistan, the
increased rent it is having to pay for the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan,
and the diplomatic scandal that resulted in the expulsion of two
Americans from Kyrgyzstan.

According to analysts, genuine security in the region can be achieved
only if the military interests of all five Caspian countries are
coordinated. At an international conference in Astrakhan in July 2005,
Russia proposed the formation of a Caspian naval coordination group,
but to date the initiative has not had much of a response.

(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad
range of political observers across the region.)