WILL GUAM PEACEKEEPERS REPLACE RUSSIANS?

The Messenger, Georgia
Aug. 23, 2006

With the Georgian leadership pushing to sideline Russian peacekeepers
in the conflict zones, questions have arisen as to just who could step
in as a substitution force. The US openly supports the withdrawal of
Russian peacekeepers, calling for the introduction of an international
force in their stead.

However, finding a replacement for the Russian peacekeepers, let
alone convincing Moscow to withdraw, is not a simple task. There are
500 Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia, and 1600 in Abkhazia.

Ukraine or the Baltic countries are widely viewed as possible
substitutions for Russia, but peacekeeping tasks require a substantial
commitment of material, logistical, and human resources.

Georgia may be hard-pressed to convince states without a strategic
national interest in the region to take on those responsibilities.

There is another, increasingly popular, option: GUAM. The organization
of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova, created in 1997 to
counterbalance Russian influence in the region, met in June to
discuss the creation of a united peacekeeper battalion. The once
moribund alliance, reenergized by the ‘color revolutions’ and Western
encouragement, have strong motivation to establish a joint peacekeeping
force-three out of four of the member-states have unresolved conflicts
on their territories (including Nagarno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan and
Transnistria in Moldova).

The GUAM peacekeeping battalion could function under the aegis of
UN, OSCE, NATO or EU-anything but CIS-mandates, participating in
peacekeeping and humanitarian operations. GUAM summits in 2005,
in Chisinau, and 2006, in Kiev, erected the legal framework to move
ahead with the idea.

There is support from experts and observers for replacing CIS (that
is, Russian) peacekeepers with GUAM forces. Director of the Strategic
Research Center Irakli Menagharishvili, minister of foreign affairs
at the time of GUAM’s creation, says that resolving conflicts and
creating a joint peacekeeping contingent was a priority issue for
the alliance from the get-go.

According to Menagharishvili, today GUAM is fit enough to take on
this mission; of additional helpfulness is the fact that its member
countries now have peacekeeping experience in different part of the
world. Russia’s clear failure to act as a disinterested party in the
conflicts, he says, is a violation of international norms.

Georgia is already taking some modest steps to subtract Russia from
the peacekeeping equation. Recently, on Tbilisi’s demand, Russian
peacekeepers were left out of the monitoring group assembled to
observe the situation in the Kodori Gorge.

Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili has pushed forth with other
substantial demands, including an insistence that in addition to
monitoring of the Georgian-controlled upper Kodori Gorge, observers
should be placed in the Abkhaz-controlled lower part. Additionally,
Tbilisi has long made noise over the former Russian military base in
Gudauta; theoretically, it is completely dismantled by now, but the
Russians, claiming that the Abkhaz authorities won’t allow inspections,
haven’t let observers ascertain that for themselves.

And now, perhaps skittish over this increased talk of a withdrawal of
Russian peacekeeping forces from the conflict zone, Abkhaz separatist
authorities are explicitly threatening military reprisals should
the Abkhazian government-in-exile be resituated in the Kodori Gorge
as planned by Saakashvili’s administration. Far from dampening the
martial rhetoric, Moscow has added its voice to the chorus, saying it
‘shares the concern’ of the Abkhazian de facto government.

Still, Abkhaz separatist leadership is dissatisfied with Russian
conduct; they want their northern patron to bare its teeth against
Georgia. The entry of Georgian ‘police forces’ into the gorge was a
perceived blow to their security, and in their minds a preventable
one should Moscow have more forcefully intervened.

With Abkhazia feverishly convinced that a Georgian attack is imminent,
calls for Russian peacekeeper withdrawal predictably meet with howls
of protest. Finding an independent body willing to step into that
maelstrom will take some doing.