Armenian analyst: War in Karabakh is possible in 2026

Regnum, Russia
Aug. 26, 2006

"Armenia rejected profitable economic projects in Southern Caucasus
for the sake of Nagorno Karabakh," independent analyst Levon
Melik-Shakhnazaryan stated during press conference in Yerevan. He is
quoted by a REGNUM correspondent as stating that "a very interesting
time" is now in negotiations on Nagorno Karabakh settlement. "The
settlement process has got into a new stage, when the co-chairs stated
that they have exhausted their imagination. Now, the settlement process
has been laid on shoulders of three parties – Armenia, Karabakh, and
Azerbaijan. At that, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is responsible
for non-recommencement of war. He has to explain to his people, why
the war does not recommence, why Azerbaijan does not try to return
Karabakh," he stressed.

According to the analyst, the war may not recommence in the near
future. "Azeri economy is to such extent integrated into economies
of Europe and the East that Azerbaijan has completely lost its
own policy. It may not decide anything independently. War is not
favorable for any big state, which has own aims in the region,"
he stressed. In that context, responding to question on possible
recommencement of hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh, the analyst
stressed that ‘Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline is property of the
British Petroleum Company till 2026." "No war with Azerbaijan is
to be expected in the period. It means; we should chose our allies,
cooperating with which we will be ready for the war. If we are well
prepared, the war does not begin," Mr. Melik-Shakhsaryan stressed,
adding that "time would work for those, who would use it in right way."

The analyst is sure it is the right time for Armenia to look for allies
in region. While doing so, the country should take into consideration
allies’ civilization because only coincidence of civilization values
may guarantee strategic union, he believes.

Because the Armenians are eastern people, they have not integration,
but ties, relations with Europe, the analyst stated, adding that Iran
may become Armenian’s ally despite difference of religions. However,
he does not exclude effectiveness of cooperation with Russia, Syria,
Belarus, and Iraq.

As for a possible meeting of Armenian and Azeri foreign ministers
in September, the analyst does not have any expectations. "They will
speak, welcome each other, may be, and drink tea together. Then, they
will come out and say; everything is before; there are foundations
for future meetings," he believes.