ARMENIAN PRESIDENT, DEFENSE MINISTER SHOW SIGNS OF RIFT
By Emil Danielyan

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Aug 5 2006

Recent weeks have revealed a rift between Armenia’s two most powerful
leaders that could have far-reaching implications for the political
future of the South Caucasus state. President Robert Kocharian is
reportedly monitoring with unease the efforts by Defense Minister Serge
Sarkisian, his hitherto chief lieutenant and most likely successor,
to succeed him in 2008.

Sarkisian has confirmed his presidential ambitions by formally joining
and assuming a key position in the governing Republican Party of
Armenia (HHK). Kocharian, for his part, is widely linked with another
party that was set up recently by the country’s most influential
oligarch and is increasingly seen as a counterweight to the HHK. The
party’s growing strength has also prompted concern from Armenian
opposition leaders who believe it bodes ill for democratic change.

The HHK officially admitted Sarkisian and elected him as its deputy
chairman at a high-profile congress on July 22 that was attended by
many members of the Armenian government. Although the party continues
to be nominally headed by Prime Minister Andranik Markarian, few doubt
that it is Sarkisian who will now be calling the shots. The HHK holds
several ministerial portfolios, controls local government bodies across
the country, and boasts the largest faction in parliament. Hence its
significance for Sarkisian. The powerful defense chief has repeatedly
stated that his participation in the next presidential election,
due in 2008, hinges on the HHK’s strong performance in parliamentary
elections scheduled for next spring. His critics insinuate that the
Republicans will therefore try to win the 2007 polls at any cost.

Kocharian claimed through a spokesman on July 24 that he does not
object to Sarkisian’s alliance with the ruling party and even
welcomes it. "An authoritative politician’s membership in the HHK
… is a welcome development and may have a positive influence on
the Armenian political field that is still far from being perfect,"
presidential press secretary Victor Soghomonian said in a statement.

Still, a growing number of local analysts believe that in reality
Kocharian is banking on the equally ambitious Prosperous Armenia party
of Gagik Tsarukian, a millionaire businessman close to the Armenian
leader. They say Kocharian is building a new, totally reliable
support base that will enable him to continue to play a major role
in government affairs after he completes his second and final term
as president in 2008. In particular, he is rumored to have set his
sights on the post of prime minister.

Prosperous Armenia announced its existence last January and claims
to have already recruited as many as 300,000 members, or 10% of the
country’s population. Individuals close to Tsarukian say the tycoon
is seriously hoping to win the upcoming elections by capitalizing on
his vast financial resources, which opposition leaders and even some
top Republicans fear could be used for a massive vote buying.

Sarkisian, meanwhile, played down Prosperous Armenia’s significance
on July 20, questioning its ability to serve as Kocharian’s new power
base. "Prosperous Armenia is not yet a party," he told RFE/RL. But
the remarks only added to speculation that he is worried about the
pro-Kocharian oligarch’s political maneuvering. Hayots Ashkhar, a
newspaper reputedly sponsored by Sarkisian, poured scorn on Tsarukian
on August 18, alleging that he is paying ordinary Armenians to join
his party.

It has escaped no one’s notice that Tsarukian was invited to attend
the last HHK congress along with leaders of other parties but failed
to show up, citing "technical reasons." He promptly held a Prosperous
Armenia conference in Yerevan two days later to address hundreds
of party activists and slam those who question the sincerity of his
pledges to make his countrymen more prosperous.

Yet not everyone is convinced that Kocharian and Sarkisian have
fallen out. Chorrord Ishkhanutyun, a newspaper highly critical of the
government, insisted on July 28 that the latest developments signal
"anything but a Kocharian-Serge standoff" and are part of a scenario
drawn up by the two men. Indeed, they have long known and worked with
each other, both in their native Karabakh and Yerevan. Conventional
wisdom therefore suggests that Kocharian would have a reliable
successor in Sarkisian, someone who would at least guarantee his
personal security. The question is, though, whether Kocharian intends
to retire from active politics or remain in government in some other
capacity. In the latter case, he would hardly need a strong president.

The Armenian opposition, meanwhile, is ringing alarm bells over an
influx of more wealthy businessmen and other influential individuals
with questionable reputations into the HHK, which was sparked by its
alliance with Sarkisian. Some opposition leaders, including former
parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian, have openly branded those
individuals as "criminal elements" tasked with helping the ruling
regime rig the next elections.

Sarkisian dismissed these concerns as he joined the HHK, promising
that the 2007 vote will be the "best" one in Armenia’s post-Soviet
history. But he was quick to add that he believes the previous Armenian
elections, criticized as undemocratic by Western observers, were not
deeply flawed. "Things were good and will get even better," said the
man regarded by his opponents as a key mastermind of serious fraud
reported during the last presidential and parliamentary elections
held in 2003.

(Hayots Ashkhar, August 18, July 25; Iravunk, August 15; Chorrord
Ishkhanutyun, July 28; RFE/RL Armenia Report, July 20-21)