AGENCY QUESTIONS ARMENIA’S EU ADMISSION CHANCES FOR YEARS TO COME

Mediamax news agency, Yerevan
9 Sep 06

Armenia, as well as other South Caucasus states, should forget
about speedy EU admission in the near future, the Armenian news
agency Mediamax has said. Although certain moves have been taken by
both sides towards each other, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia lag
behind their European neighbours in terms of holding " free, fair
and transparent elections, the results of which would raise doubts
neither in the country itself nor outside", it said. In addition,
Baku’s problems with the EU over ties with Northern Cyprus are
another obstacle for all three South Caucasus countries, Mediamax
added. The following is text of report in English by Armenian news
agency Mediamax headlined "Unclear European prospects for Armenia";
subheadings inserted editorially:

This week, the Armenian authorities made just another step to
demonstrate seriousness of Yerevan’s intentions concerning the issue of
deepening the relations with the European Union. On 7 September, the
Armenian government made a decision on setting up a National Council
for Armenia’s cooperation with the EU, as well as a Commission for
coordination of the cooperation. We should remind that in July 2006 a
Commission for the coordination of the cooperation with the European
structures was set up in Armenia chaired by President Robert Kocharyan.

In early October, a delegation of the European Union Troika will
visit the South Caucasus. It is expected that during the visit the
Action Plans of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia under the European
Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) will finally be signed.

EU and Armenia differ on cooperation objectives

All the above mentioned, undoubtedly, proves that the sides make
serious steps towards each other. However, sometimes there is an
impression that the European Union and Armenia differently interpret
the goals and the objectives of their deepened cooperation, and this
often becomes a reason for discords and disappointment.

The Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) of Armenia with NATO,
put into force in December 2005, was the only document in which Armenia
officially voiced its desire to become a full EU member. "In line with
its objective to integrate into European structures and institutions,
Armenia intends to enhance its cooperation with the European Union
and to seek closer institutional compatibility with the ultimate goal
of full membership," the document reads.

It is significant that several months after the approval of the IPAP,
in April 2006, the Armenian President Robert Kocharyan said the
following in the interview to "Golos Armenii" newspaper: "Today,
Armenia is preparing for a closer cooperation with the European
Union within the European Neighbourhood Policy, but we have not set
the task to join the EU." This "mismatch" is an obvious evidence of
the absence in the Armenian government of systemic approach to its
relations with the EU.

On the other hand, the European Union makes it clear that it is not
ready to consider the issue of the membership of Armenia, Georgia and
Azerbaijan in the foreseeable future. The special representative of
the EU in the South Caucasus, Peter Semneby, said in May 2006 that
"although the EU offers deepened relations to regional countries
within the ENP, this does not envisage a prospect for membership in the
EU". Semneby admitted that the absence of such a prospect in a certain
context deprives the regional countries of motivation, necessary for
the continuation and the deepening of political and economic reforms.

South Caucasus states not ready to join EU

Hence, the states of the region and Armenia, in particular, in reality
cherish a dream to join the EU. The European Union, on the contrary,
openly declares that the discussion of the prospects for joining the
EU for the South Caucasus states is a utopia today. Most likely, the
main reason for the present state of affairs is that Brussels clearly
realizes that today’s striving of the South Caucasus states to join
the EU is reasoned to a greater extent by mercantile considerations
rather than by perception of one’s own European identity. The main
proof for that is in particular the incapacity of the countries of
the region to hold free, fair and transparent elections, the results
of which would raise doubts neither in the country itself, nor outside.

Baku’s problems with EU another obstacle

The Armenian diplomats, in their turn, declare that the EU strive for
indispensable preserving the "parity" in the development of relations
with the South Caucasus states hinders the real integration processes.

Let us remember that the Armenia-EU talks have been postponed twice
because of some problems in relations between Baku and Brussels. In
summer 2005, the talks with Armenia on the Action Plan have been
postponed for several months because Azerbaijan decided to open
a direct air communication with the Turkish Northern Cyprus. In
response, the authorities of [the Republic of] Cyprus vetoed the
consideration of the Action Plan with Azerbaijan. In 2006 Armenia-EU
talks stopped again. This time Baku insisted that EU included the
phrase "the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict can be resolved only within
Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity" into Azerbaijan’s Action Plan.

The European Union, for its part, took a time-out.

The further relations of the South Caucasus states with the
EU will mostly depend on realization of Action Plans, in which
special attention is paid to the issues of democracy and human
rights protection. And while the Armenian authorities have yet to
determine as to how sincere they are in their strive for deepening
cooperation with the EU, the population of the country has already
made its decision. The data of the survey carried out this spring
by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization proved that 80 per cent
of polled Armenian citizens think that Armenia should in the future
enter the EU. Only 3 per cent of the polled were against Armenia’s
accession to the EU.