BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA AND THE ELECTIONS: WHO DOES THE GERMAN CDU-SCU HELP IN BIH?
Written by Bakhtyar Aljaf (IFIMES)
Newropeans Magazine, France
Thursday, 14 September 2006
The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)
in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses events in the Middle East
and the Balkans. On the occasion of the announced general elections in
Bosnia and Herzegovina which are to take place on 1 October 2006 IFIMES
has prepared an analysis of the current pre-election situation. The
most relevant and interesting sections from the comprehensive analysis
are given below.
On the occasion of the announced general elections in Bosnia and
Herzegovina which are to take place on 1 October 2006 IFIMES has
prepared an analysis of the current pre-election situation. At the
general elections the voters will elect the new three-member Presidency
of BiH, President and two Vice-Presidents of the Republic of Srpska
(RS), the House of Representatives at the state and entity levels
(Federation of BiH and RS) and ten Cantonal Assemblies. In total, 7,245
candidates from 36 parties and 8 coalitions as well as 12 independent
candidates have decided to contest for those positions. There are in
total 2,736,886 registered voters.
POLITICAL CONFRONTATION BETWEEN DODIK AND SILAJD~NIÆ
The forthcoming general elections which are to take place on 1 October
are becoming the most important event affecting almost all political
activities in BiH. The general political situation is characterised
by the efforts of the nationalistic political elite to remain in
power also in the next term of office.
Thus in the Republic of Srpska two opposing political blocks have
been formed: (1) SNSD, Socialist Party (SP), DNS etc. (2) SDS, the
Radicals etc.
During the debate on the constitutional amendments and their
non-adoption, two opposing political blocks have been formed also
in the Federation of BiH: (1) Party for BiH, SDU, BOSS etc. (2) SDA,
SDP etc.
At the state level the main political pre-election fight will be
fought between the opposing political blocks led by Haris Silajd~^iæ
from the Federation of BiH (Party for BiH) and Milorad Dodik from
the Republic of Srpska (SNSD).
The national parties (SDS, SDA and HDZ) are trying to keep their
position feeling jeopardised by the arrival of democratic forces
which are going to tackle the period of their regime marked by war,
genocide, organised crime and corruption, isolation of the state and
its obvious lagging behind development which is, in the long-term,
the main reason for the economic decay of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
During their reign the national parties (SDS, SDA and HDZ) "ensured"
Bosnia and Herzegovina a high position among the 158 states which
were the subject of the research on the level of corruption. At the
88th place BiH is in the same group as Armenia, Benin, Gabon, India,
Iran, Mali and Moldova (Source: Transparency International Corruption
Perceptions Index 2005).
The post-Second-World-War experience showed that the European
authorities managed to revive their states in record time and to
transform them into the most promising states in Europe thus setting
the foundations to the present European Union.
However, after the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992-1995) the
national parties have remained in power and continued to produce a
latent energy-consuming conflict between the nations which is the only
way for them to remain in power. On the other hand the economic and
social issues, despite their natural priority position, have remained
the secondary task due to which even 11 years after the war ended
Bosnia and Herzegovina has not managed to restore the infrastructure
nor to create the conditions for accelerating economic development,
which has aroused the feeling of dissatisfaction among all of its
nations and disappointment over the politics led in BiH during the
past 15 years.
In the Republic of Srpska thus SDS has, together with PDP and
supported by some radical Serbian movements, kept its citizens as
the prisoners of its politics which promoted criminal privatisation
flows, gradual undermining of the legal system and lagging behind
the modern economic and technologic developments in Europe and the
world. Merciless exploitation of national and natural resources have
impoverished the Republic of Srpska and its citizens. Extreme poverty
is especially felt in the eastern parts of the RS.
Having analysed the political and economic programmes of parties
and their political activities during the past years the IFIMES
International Institute has concluded that SNSD and SP are focused on
the economic and social issues of the four social classes and aim to
speed up the realisation of the macroeconomic programmes which can lead
to the accelerated and increased employment of the unemployed citizens.
Unemployment is namely the key indicator of social peace and
stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The citizens righteously
expect the political parties to make some radical changes which,
according to the IFIMES estimations, SNSD and SP are able carry out
in the Republic of Srpska. The forthcoming elections are therefore
of decisive importance for the Republic of Srpska.
ANNIHILATING POLITICS OF SDS, PDP and SRS
The annihilating regime of SDS, PDP and SRS has produced severe
far-reaching consequences which will have a long-term negative effect
on the development of the Republic of Srpska. Their politics has been
reduced to sheer fight for maintaining the position in the government,
using any means to win the favour of the High Representative for
BiH which often ended in a grovelling attitude towards international
officials in BiH due to which their politics often lost any sense.
Moreover, they used the methods characteristic of totalitarian regimes,
such as pre-arranged judicial processes against opposition leaders
(Milorad Dodik, Petar Ðokiæ, Marko Paviæ), unauthorised eavesdropping –
notably by "Telekom Srpske" in case of President of the Socialist Party
Petar Ðokiæ where this practices may well still continue since most of
the "Telekom Srpske" staff come from PDP and SDS. The paradoxicality
of the regime led by SDS and PDP lies in the fact that instead of
dealing with the criminal officials in SDS and PDP who have performed
various functions the competent public prosecutors are involved in
cases against opposition leaders in pre-arranged court proceedings
some of which are still ongoing.
The IFIMES International Institute has noted a characteristic behaviour
of the current RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik. Instead of abiding
by the political programme which he presented before being elected,
especially its economic aspect, he unfortunately uses the typical
nationalistic rhetoric which may, in the next period, commit him
to the nationally oriented voters and benefit the national parties
which are noted for their nationalistic rhetoric. Milorad Dodik thus
unknowingly helps the national parties and is consequently losing
his traditional voters to other political parties.
SULEJMAN TIHIÆ ASKED THE GERMAN CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS (CDU-CSU) FOR HELP?
A characteristic feature of BiH is the lack of transparency during
all previous election campaigns.
Although the Central Election Commission (CEC) is trying to control
the financing of election campaigns it is not very successful at
those attempts.
According to the results of the last elections in BiH the leading
party was SDA whose president Sulejman Tihiæ is also the current
Chairman of the BiH Presidency. According to the information IFIMES has
received from the Presidency, Sulejman Tihiæ asked the German Christian
Democrats CDU-CSU for assistance in the election campaign? Allegedly,
on behalf of CDU-CSU this assistance would be carried out by a known
German lobbying firm which is close to the right-oriented political
circles in Europe. Most probably Sulejman Tihiæ’s goal is to improve
his currently very poor position before the forthcoming elections and
thus to remain in power. IFIMES’s information on the activities in
the Presidency are alerting since it is the German energy lobby that
is hiding behind such "assistance". As a return favour, the German
lobby would have wide open door for entering BiH. Tihiæ is to meet
the above representatives in the next few days.
The IFIMES International Institute believes that such assistance
provided by the German Christian Democrats (from the CDU-CSU circles)
to SDA which is an Islamic party would not be disputable if it
involved transparent donations and assistance not conditional on
additional favours which may be regarded as falling within the scope
of corruption and organised crime.
However, if other interests and intentions are hiding behind such
assistance from the German energy lobby, the whole case should be
examined by the competent public prosecutor and the Central Election
Commission.
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