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Saturday, September 16, 2006

EURASIA INSIGHT

ARMENIA’S STRATEGIC LACHIN CORRIDOR CONFRONTS A DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS
Onnik Krikorian 9/15/06

The flag of the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh flies over
the local administrative buildings in the center of Lachin, the
strategic lynchpin connecting the disputed territory with the Republic
of Armenia. The town and surrounding area, regarded as vital for
Karabakh’s security, appear to be experiencing an unsettling
demographic shift.

Over the past 14 years, Lachin has been reshaped by the ebb and flow
of humanity. In May 1992, during the height of the Karabakh conflict,
Armenian forces captured Lachin. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive]. Typical of most military operations against towns
and villages during the war, buildings were razed and entire
populations forced to flee. Accordingly, at least 20,000 Azerbaijanis
and Kurds evacuated the area when Armenian forces approached the town.

Armenians remained in possession of the Lachin corridor, renamed
Kashatagh, and several other Azerbaijani territories after the signing
of a Karabakh cease-fire in 1994. Shortly thereafter, Armenia
implemented a resettlement policy. Robert Matevosian, head of the
department of resettlement for the region, says that the first
Armenian arrivals came to the region out of a sense of
patriotism. These territories, "regardless of the consideration of
diplomats, must be inhabited by Armenians," he says.

The official line is that most of the Lachin corridor’s new residents
are refugees and internally displaced persons. The situation on the
ground, however, suggests otherwise. It seems many of the new arrivals
were socially vulnerable families from towns and cities such as
Yerevan, Sisian, Jermuk and Gyumri in Armenia proper, as well as from
Karabakh itself. They appear to have been recruited to relocate with
promises of land, livestock and social benefits.

Gagik Kosakian, deputy governor of the region, has no choice but to
stick to the official line. But he does admit that others came as
well. "There are those specialists that couldn’t find work in their
chosen profession in Armenia who also come here to find employment,"
he says from his run-down and cramped office in downtown Lachin, which
Armenians have renamed Berdzor.

Varouzhan Grigoryan, 48, is one of those professionals who sought a
new start in Lachin. The economic chaos associated with the 1991
Soviet collapse hit Grigoryan hard. In the late Soviet era, he
operated his own dance studio in the southern Armenian town of Sisian.
Yet, amid Armenia’s economic transition, he was forced to close his
business and seek other work.

Six years ago, he moved with his family to Lachin and now he teaches
traditional Armenian dance to school children in the town, while
living with his wife and five children in a newly renovated hostel on
the outskirts. With a combined income of 70,000 drams (about $177) a
month in addition to 20,000 drams (about $50) in benefits for his five
children, things are better than they had been in Armenia. He also
receives another 20,000 drams in disability allowances for his two
chronically ill sons.

But while life might be better for the Grigoryans, the situation is
very different for others. The Lachin corridor covers some 3,000
square kilometers and stretches from just below Kelbajar in the north
to the Iranian border in the south. Yet, while Lachin’s pre-war
[Azerbaijani] population stood at well over 67,000, Kosakian puts the
number of [Armenian] settlers in the entire region (that also includes
the former Azerbaijani regions of Qubatli and Zangelan) at 9,800
people, including 2,200 living in the town of Lachin itself.

Unofficial estimates, however, put the number far lower.

Because of poor social conditions, as well as a lack of investment and
the recent transfer of the regional budget from Armenia to the
Karabakh territorial government, both officials and activists in
Lachin say that many families are leaving. Indeed, while the region’s
population was estimated at 15,000 in 2002, there are concerns that
out-migration is now reaching epidemic proportions. Sources within the
local administration estimated the population to be in the 5,000-6,000
range in 2006.

In recent weeks, Armenian newspapers have reported that that families
living in the territory are complaining that initial promises have
been broken. Moreover, while a budget estimated at 2.2 billion drams
has been allocated to Lachin, nobody in the administration appears to
know how the money is being spent. Benefits averaging 4,000 drams
(about $10) per child a month on average are also reportedly paid
late.

At the outset of 2006, an incentive for new settlers — the provision
of free electricity of up to 200 kw per month for the first two years
of residency — was rescinded. Meanwhile, there are questions about
misappropriations and malfeasance, including allegations that of 750
million drams allocated for the construction of new homes, only 50
million drams have actually been spent.

"I think that the Karabakh authorities have no real understanding of
the importance of this region," laments Samuel Kocharian, Director of
the AGAPE Children’s Home in Lachin. He is also one of the most vocal
critics of the local administration as well as the transfer of the
Lachin corridor’s budget from Armenia to Karabakh. He estimates the
regional population now at approximately 5,000 people.

Marine Petoyan, head of the village of Karegah, located a few
kilometers outside of Lachin, touts her village as one of the most
successful in the region. Nevertheless, she is concerned about the
future. "Sixty percent of residents don’t have water because of the
drought," she says. "When the natural springs dried out, this became a
serious problem," She also says that there are numerous cases of
residents in Karegah having their electricity cut off because they
have been unable to pay their bills.

Fears of a resumption of armed conflict between Armenians and
Azerbaijanis also seem to be influencing Lachin’s demographics. "The
process of resettlement started on a large scale at the beginning
because of patriotism," says Kocharian, "but now [Lachin] is emptying
with the same enthusiasm and on the same scale. When people heard
[Armenian Defense Minister] Serzh Sarkisyan say on television:
"`People, is Aghdam ours? Do you want another war?’ they were
worried."

Robert Matevosian does not deny that there has been an exodus in
recent years. While not disputing the allegations and articles
published in the Armenian media, he nonetheless reacts angrily to
them. "If these reports do not result in changes here, they will do
more harm than good," he says. "Already they are having a negative
effect."

"These articles do raise various issues that are of concern, and that
do exist here," he admits. "These problems have affected
resettlement. … Our officials and national [political] parties need
to think about elaborating a strategic plan for this region."

But with the international community still pushing for a Karabakh
peace agreement, few believe any national plan of action will
surface. Samuel Kocharian, for example, doesn’t. Indeed, he even
wonders if the situation is one by design. "How wide do they want the
Lachin corridor to be?" he asked rhetorically.

Editor’s Note: Editor’s Note: Onnik Krikorian is a freelance
journalist and photojournalist from the United Kingdom working for a
variety of local and international publications and organizations in
the Republic of Armenia. He maintains a blog from Armenia and the
surrounding region at

Posted September 15, 2006 © Eurasianet