THE WORLD TAKES NOTE AT LAST

Messenger.ge, Georgia
Monday, September 18, 2006, #176 (1196)

After a "contentious procedural debate" GUAM member states (Georgia,
Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) have succeeded in having the
protracted conflicts on their territories discussed at the 61st
session of the UN general assembly.

The significance of this event is underlined by the hostility with
which it was greeted by Russia, who’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs
released a pre-emptive strike of a statement, and vowed to keep its
peacekeepers in Georgia’s breakaway regions regardless of any demand to
remove them. Russia was one of the fifteen countries that voted against
discussing the issue, which passed by just one vote on September 13.

The previous day Russia had successfully managed to stop the issued
from being included among those recommended for discussion to the
General Assembly at a sitting of the General Committee, which is
the steering body that sets the agenda for the GA sessions. In
a complacently victorious statement Russian MFA spokesman Mikhail
Kamynin said "We have from the outset been against politicizing this
issue and involving the General Assembly", though, as the Georgian
MFA pointed out, these conflicts are by their very nature political.

President Saakashvili is expected to address the assembly later this
week, and will probably demand that Russian peacekeepers are replaced
with an international police force in South Ossetia. Russia is furious,
as even though there is little chance of any international organisation
offering to step in and police the conflict zone in the near future,
the very fact that the issue is being discussed at the UN at all
indicates that Russia’s ‘monopoly’ on the conflicts is slipping away.

This is a significant victory for both GUAM, which has now certified
itself as a proper international organisation, and not a petty anti-CIS
with no clout, as many in Russia had hoped, and also for the Georgian
government’s policy of pushing for the internationalisation of the
conflicts-even if they are only internationalised at the discussion
level.

This is not the only indication that the tide of opinion may
be changing with regard to the conflicts, however. In May US
Vice-President Dick Cheney gave a damning speech, lambasting Russian
"bullying" of its neigbours and use of energy as a political weapon,
the opening of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline have underscored
the importance of the region globally.

All year the Minsk group on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have
intensified their efforts to kick start the peace process, and the
appointment of the young and energetic Matt Bryza, deputy assistant
secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, as the US
co-chair has at least injected some new blood in the system, even if
no concrete achievements have been observed.

Moldova and Ukraine, with the explicit support of the EU, have adopted
a much more robust policy towards Transnistria also. Moscow calls it
a blockade, but it seems that, with the likely accession of Romania to
the EU in January, the EU are keen to clear up this ‘frozen conflict’
which will sit uncomfortably close to its eastern border.

But it is in Georgia where wind is changing most perceptibly
perhaps. The very public support for Georgia’s territorial integrity
and its government that has been forthcoming from the Whitehouse has
been accompanied by an increased assertiveness in Tbilisi.

Parliament’s resolution to ask the government to withdraw Russian
peacekeepers has been backed by two of the most senior lawmakers
in the US, Senator Richard Lugar and, as Saakashvili remarked,
possible-future-president Senator John McCain. These two both
unequivocally stated that Russian peacekeepers should be replaced in
the conflict zones.

Perhaps as significant, but less headline grabbing, is the recent
statements from Europe regarding the conflicts, where it seems patience
may finally be running out. Since the September 3 ‘helicopter incident’
in which South Ossetian paramilitaries fired on a helicopter carrying
Defence Minister Irakli Okruashvili reminded everybody how delicate
the situation is, and underlined the lawlessness of the South Ossetian
regime. The incident was strongly condemned by OSCE chair Karel De
Gucht, who described it as "criminal".

Plans by the South Ossetian leadership to hold an ‘independence’
referendum have led to strong criticism from Europe also, with Council
of Europe Secretary General Terry Davis calling it "a waste of time".

Even if we shouldn’t expect the blue helmets in the conflict zones
to suddenly have NATO or EU logos, these developments do indicate
an increasing engagement of the international community in Georgia’s
conflicts, and the UN decision is just the latest indication of the
trend towards ‘internationalisation’, which is exactly what Georgia
needs.
From: Baghdasarian