TURKEY SEEKS MORE REFORMS, EU CRISIS SEEN AS INEVITABLE

Reuters
Gulf Times, Qatar
Published: Monday, 18 September, 2006, 11:29 AM Doha Time

ANKARA: Turkey’s parliament reconvenes tomorrow, nearly two weeks
ahead of schedule, to pass fresh reforms that the government hopes
will demonstrate its commitment to joining the EU.

But analysts and diplomats say the laws will fall well short of what
the EU wants and will do nothing to avert a looming crisis between
the wealthy bloc and Ankara over Cyprus.

With scant room for manoeuvre over the politically delicate issue of
Cyprus ahead of 2007 elections, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan should
compensate with bolder reforms, for example in the area of freedom
of expression, to disarm his critics and reassure his allies inside
the EU, they say.

"Everyone’s pleased with the (early) parliament recall, but the
government needs to do more to win time over Cyprus," said a senior
EU diplomat in Ankara.

"What Turkey needs to do is give pro-Turkey countries in the EU
something to bite on, namely by improving freedom of expression or
opening the Greek Orthodox seminary."

The EU has long urged Erdogan to reopen the Halki seminary near
Istanbul, viewing it as a symbol of religious freedom in Muslim but
secular Turkey. But nationalists oppose such a move.

Erdogan’s ruling centre-right AK Party is expected instead to propose
laws increasing civilian control of the military and improving property
rights of non-Muslim religious foundations.

It is unclear whether Erdogan will bow to EU pressure and scrap or
amend a controversial article of the penal code that makes it a crime
to insult "Turkishness" and state institutions.

Article 301 has often been used by nationalist prosecutors to launch
cases against intellectuals and writers over sensitive issues such
as Kurdish rights and the killing of Armenians under Ottoman Turkish
rule during World War I.

"I think 301 will be amended. The details are being worked on," said
one Turkish diplomat, adding he expected this would give Turkey some
breathing space from EU attacks.

But as with the Halki seminary, officials say privately, the AK Party
fears a big nationalist backlash if it scraps 301.

Turkish public support for joining the EU has already fallen sharply
since entry talks began last year due to a feeling that the EU demands
a lot but does not really want Ankara to join.

"Article 301 has turned into a litmus test of how serious the
government is about EU reforms," said Semih Idiz, diplomatic editor
at CNN Turk private television and a veteran EU observer.

"The environment is a nationalist one now in Turkey.

If you concede on 301, it’s fodder to the right wing because they
say why do you throw yourself against the wall and give up our values
and get nothing in return," said Idiz.

Any last-minute reforms would help blunt criticism in the European
Commission’s annual report on Turkey’s progress due on October 24, but
Turkey’s refusal to budge over Cyprus still makes a crisis virtually
inevitable by the end of 2006, analysts say.

Cyprus joined the EU in 2004 under its internationally recognised
Greek Cypriot government, but Ankara backs a breakaway Turkish Cypriot
enclave in the north of the island.

The EU says Turkey must open its ports and airports this year to Greek
Cypriot ships and planes and Cyprus has said it may block Ankara’s
entry talks if it does not acquiesce.

Last week, Erdogan reaffirmed Turkey’s position that it will only
act if the EU honours its own commitment to lift long-standing trade
restrictions against the Turkish Cypriots.

"Right now I don’t see a solution on Turkey … I don’t see anything
major happening until the EU summit in December," the senior EU
diplomat said.

"Like in the past it’s probable we won’t get any real movement (in
the EU) on Turkey until we face a real crisis. Then everyone will
jump in and start real negotiating."