IRAN AND TURKEY PREPARE FOR WAR IN IRAQI KURDISTAN
DEBKA file, Israel
Sept 24 2006
DEBKAfile Exclusive Military Report
A new Middle East war is in the offing. DEBKAfile’s exclusive military
sources in Iraq and sources in Iran reveal that Turkish and Iranian air
units as well as armored, paratroop, special operations and artillery
forces are poised for an imminent coordinated invasion of the northern
Iraqi autonomous province of Kurdistan.
Our sources pinpoint the target of the combined Iranian-Turkish
offensive as the Quandil Mountains (see picture), where some 5,000
Kurdish rebels from Turkey and Iran, members of the PKK and PJAK
respectively, are holed up. Iranian and Turkish assault troops are
already deployed 7-8 km deep inside Iraqi territory.
Turkey to the northwest and Iran to the east both have Kurdish
minorities which have been radicalized by the emergence of Iraqi
Kurdistan in the last three years. The three contiguous Kurdish
regions form a strategic world hub.
A jittery Washington foresees a Kurdish-Iranian military thrust
quickly flaring into a comprehensive conflict and igniting flames
that would envelop the whole of Iraqi Kurdistan as well as southern
Turkey and Armenia.
Tehran is quite capable of using the opening for its expeditionary
force to grab extensive parts of Kurdistan and strike a strategic
foothold in northern Iraq.
Informed US officials would not be surprised if Turkey took the chance
of seizing northern Iraqi oil fields centered on the oil-rich town
of Kirkuk, the source of 40 percent of Iraq’s oil output.
When he met US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice in New York
Thursday, Sept. 21, Turkish foreign minister Abdullah Gul said:
"When we talk about Kirkuk, everybody supposes we want to bring the
Kurdish-Turkish issue to the foreground. However, we instead see the
uncertainty there as a general issue of Iraq. We are concerned that
instability and turmoil in Kirkuk could cause more troubles in Iraq."
Referring to the recently appointed special US coordinator Gen. Joseph
Ralston, Gul expressed his hope that a resolution would be imminent.
The threat was implicit and impatient. Washington was given to infer
that Ankara is on the point of deciding whether or not to capture
Kirkuk, a step that would undermine a pivotal political and economic
base of the Baghdad government and harm US interests in Iraq.
This conversation, which was not nearly as amicable as it looked from
the press photos, was clouded by a disturbing incident: A semi-official
American military publication recently ran a new map showing parts
of Turkish and Armenian territory marked "Kurdistan."
This map fueled suspicions in Ankara and the Armenian capital Yerevan
that the US high military command was in on a plan for Iraqi Kurdish
forces led by President Jalal Talabani and Masoud Barzani to help
themselves to territory in Turkey and Armenia in a counter-attack to
a potential Turkish-Iranian military move in Kurdistan.
This kind of mistrust has lent wings to Ankara’s resolve to go forward
against Kurdistan – the sooner the better.
To cool tempers and restrain the Turks, the US ambassador to Turkey,
Ross Wilson, stood up in Ankara on Sept 19 and promised: "Northern
Iraq won’t serve as a PKK base in the future." In a speech at a
meeting entitled "Agenda 2006," Wilson stated that the map published
in an unofficial U.S. military magazine showing parts of Turkish
and Armenian territory under the domination of a republic called
"Kurdistan" doesn’t reflect the official policy of the US.
The ambassador added that the recently stepped-up PKK violent attacks
in Turkey "would not be tolerated anymore."
These words were hardly likely to allay Ankara’s fears, since the
ambassador addressed the PKK problem in the future tense, while the
Turkish government is troubled by the present.
The approaching conflict, according to DEBKAfile’s military sources,
has an Israeli dimension. Since July, Turkish leaders have been
impressing on the Bush administration that they have the right to
attack Kurdish rebels who mount terrorist attacks in Turkey and take
refuge across the border in Iraq’s Quandil Mountains – no less than
the Israelis, who with US backing struck back at the Hizballah in
Lebanon for its cross-border attacks into northern Israel.
Tehran is not bothering to justify its forthcoming operation in
Kurdistan. DEBKAfile’s sources in Tehran report that Iran’s rulers
are determined to go in without further ado and crush the Kurdish
insurgents carrying out hit-and-run attacks in Iran in recent months.
Vital American and Israeli regional security interests in the Middle
East are affected by three additional aspects of the potential
anti-Kurdish flare-up.
1. Washington is not convinced by Ankara’s protestations of the
absence of Turkish-Iranian military complicity. Turkey and Iran
happen to find themselves in the same boat at the same time as
targets of terrorists, say the Turks, and both have no choice but
to use force to stamp out the violence. But for the Americans, the
timing could not be more unfortunate. A possible US (and Israeli)
plan to attack Iran’s nuclear installations at this time would be
seriously hampered by the closure of Turkish and Kurdish air space
to American and Israeli warplanes heading for Iran.
The war plot thickened further this week.
Friday, Sept. 22, while Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah harangued
a million Lebanese spectators in Beirut, Iran’s ambassador to Turkey,
Firouz Dolatabadi, spoke in Ankara in ominous tones. He said: "Iran,
Turkey and Iraq are key points in the world’s geopolitics. Whoever
dominates this region can control the whole world."
Regarding relations between Iran and Turkey, ambassador Dolatabadi
said: "History has it that whenever Iran and the Ottoman Emperor had
good relations, we would witness good developments in the region."
Good for whom? asked worried officials in Washington.
2. An Iranian-Turkish victory in a Kurdish campaign would award
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps its second victory in less than
two months. The RG officers who commanded Hizballah forces in the
Lebanon war of July and August claim full credit for its gains. They
thwarted a key objective of the Israeli assault which was to cut Iran’s
assets down to size in Lebanon and the western Middle East at large,
and have left Iran’s military grip on the region firmer than ever.
3. Israel is concerned lest military action against Turkish PKK rebels
uproot its military and economic presence in Iraqi Kurdistan.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that since 2004 Israeli military
instructors and intelligence officer have been helping the Kurds
build up their peshmerga army and anti-terrorist forces.
Iran and Turkey are convinced that Israel also maintains in north
Iraqi Kurdistan observation and early warning posts to forewarn
the Jewish state of a coming Iranian attack. If this is so, the two
invaders will make a point of destroying such posts. Israel would
then forfeit a key intelligence facility against the Islamic Republic.
Regarding Israel’s oft-reported, never officially-admitted, connection
with Kurdistan, the BBC’s Newsnight program of Sept 20 claimed to have
obtained the first pictures of Kurdish soldiers trained by Israelis
in N. Iraq, as well as an interview with an unnamed former trainer.
DEBKAfile’s sources conjecture that the photos were leaked by two
sources:
One, Turkish officials concerned to drum up a justifiable "context"
for their coming offensive by smearing the Talabani-Barzani leadership
as disloyal to Baghdad.
The Kurdish authorities have denied allowing any Israelis into northern
Iraq. The purported Israeli trainer told the BBC interviewer that
his team was told they would be disowned if discovered.
Two, Turkish or European elements who are anxious to abort an American
or Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear industry by exposing Kurdish
installations that might serve to expand Israel’s strategic options
against Iran. The BBC producers suggested that refueling stops at the
Irbil (Hawler) airport in Kurdistan would help the Israel air force
overcome the problem of distance to an air strike against Iran.
The British program quoted the trainer as describing the courses
given to Kurdish airport security people and army as diverse special
operations forces’ anti-terrorism tactics and weapons. DEBKAfile adds
that before Abu Musab al Zarqawi was taken out by American forces,
his men sought high and low for Israeli instructors to abduct as
hostages, but never found them.
The Bush administration recently appointed former NATO commander Gen.
Joseph Ralston as special US coordinator in Ankara for the PKK issue in
the hope of de-escalating the crisis caused by PKK attacks and delaying
Ankara’s war operation against Iraqi Kurdistan. In the second week of
September, he held a round of conferences with Turkish political and
military leaders. His essential argument was that military action is
the last option. But he made little headway. Many Turkish officials
found the Ralston initiative too late to hold back the inevitable
clash for a number of reasons.
They believe the delay he urged would play into the hands of the
Kurdish rebels and give them time to consolidate their preparations
to fight off an offensive.
Turkish intelligence reports that Talabani and Barzani are less
busy with Iraqi affairs than with transferring large quantities
of anti-tank and anti-air rockets to the anti-Turkish PKK and the
anti-Iranian PJAK in their hideouts.
Ankara is keen, furthermore, to get in its blow against Kurdistan
before an American action against Iran. The Turks buy Russian and
Iranian intelligence evaluations according which the US attack may
take place at any time between the last week of September and the end
of December, 2006. So they feel the ground is burning under their feet.
Iran, for its part, is waiting for Turkey to make the first move in
Iraqi Kurdistan. Its troops will go into action only after the first
Turkish soldier and tank are on the move.