MEDIAMAX EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW OF PETER SEMNEBY

MEDIAMAX Armenian news agency

weekly analytical report
26.09.06

"A Very Important Opportunity Has Been Lost"

The exclusive interview of Peter Semneby, EU Special Representative
to theSouth Caucasus, to Mediamax news agency

– When will the Armenian Action Plan within the European Neighborhood
Policy (ENP) be adopted?

– The European Union Troika and External Relations Commissioner are
planning to visit all three countries in the South Caucasus in early
October. The intention is that all three Action Plans should be ready
by that time.

– Azerbaijan was demanding to include in its Action Plan wording
saying that the Nagorno Karabakh conflict should be settled within
the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Has this issue been solved,
or is it still under discussion?

– What we have in the draft text of the Azerbaijani Action Plan is the
acknowledgement of its territorial integrity – the same was introduced
in the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Azerbaijan that
was signed long time ago.

Both in Armenian and Azerbaijani Action Plans there are sections
specifically referring to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. They are
very similar and based on the same draft. Some small differences
reflect the different concerns and the different aspirations of the
countries. But there is no prejudging what the final outcome and the
resolution of the conflict would be.

– Can we say that the adoption of the Action Plans will open a new
chapter in the relations between the EU and the countries of the
South Caucasus?

– Absolutely. It will be a much more profound relationship. The three
countries will be tied very closely to the European Union; there will
be much closer contacts with Brussels.

>>From now on it would be up to the ambitions and the ability of each
country to move forward in building its own relations with the European
Union, and I expect Armenia to do very well in this. Our negotiations
experience proves that Armenia is taking the Action Plan very seriously
and the Armenian negotiators were exceptionally well prepared.

– This May you said that all three countries of the region were moving
in different directions. At the same time EU perceives this region
as a whole. You don’t see any contradictions here?

– Each country in the South Caucasus has an individual relationship
with the EU that is largely performance-based. At the same time, there
are also issues of regional concern related to environment, trade,
energy issues and others that we need to address through a regional
framework. So one thing doesn’t exclude another. One of the tasks and
the obligations in the Action Plans is to move forward on regional
cooperation. I realize that in case with Armenia and Azerbaijan this
presents particular difficulties as long as the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict is not resolved. Resolution of the existing conflicts is a
priority task in the Action Plans as well.

– Does the Armenian Action Plan contain any mentioning about Armenia’s
aspiration to join the EU?

– It is stated in the draft text that the European Union takes note
of the ambitions expressed by Armenia. I should say that this issue
has been actively debated inside the EU, because the Union is now at
the stage of reflection after that latest enlargement and the failure
of the European Constitution ratification. Many member-states think
that this is not the right time to take further obligations.

Nevertheless, the EU countries have come to a conclusion that
it is a positive sign that Armenia, as well as other countries,
are expressing this ambition since it indicates the willingness to
implement difficult reforms.

At the same time, this does not mean that the path towards the EU
membership is open. ENP does not include a membership prospective
and it also doesn’t exclude it. The issue of membership is a separate
one, and if it is on the agenda some time in the future, it will be
discussed separately from the ENP. Diligent implementation of the
ENP tasks, of course, will be a big plus and will demonstrate that
Armenia is serious about its expressed ambition.

– This March you told our agency that the contribution to the
resolution of the conflicts will be your top priority. Now, as half a
year passed, you have probably gained more experience. Do you think
that the window of opportunities to settle the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict in the near future is still open?

– If I had to mention my biggest disappointment in my first half a
year as the EU Special Representative in the South Caucasus it would
be the failure of Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach the settlement of
the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. I think that very important opportunity
has been lost, but I hope it has not been lost for a long time.

I am not particularly optimistic at this moment. I don’t want to put
blame on any side, but I think that both Armenia and Azerbaijan should
think about the dangers and costs of not reaching a solution.

For Armenia there are quite obvious huge costs. Armenia’s relative
isolation is a direct consequence of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

In Azerbaijan the costs as such may not be on the top of the people’s
minds, but there are also risks related to the undetermined status
of the conflict. I am noticing a growing harsher rhetoric in the
domestic discussion in Azerbaijan. This increases the risk of any
kind of incident along the contact line developing into more serious
confrontation.

– Don’t you think that the relative isolation of Armenia, that you
have mentioned, creates additional frustration in Yerevan and toughens
its position? Don’t you think that Armenia’s involvement in the major
regional transport and energy projects could have made Yerevan more
ready for some compromises that are considered impossible today?

– I am not saying how the things should be ideally, I am just stating
the fact. This is the reality that Armenia has to live with, and
these are the costs that Armenia has to take into account when it
weights the costs and the benefits of the current situation. There
will be costs of the settlement as well, because it will mean painful
compromises. So these costs will have to be weight against the costs
of the continuing isolation. I very much hope that in this calculus
Armenian leadership and the population would come to a conclusion on
that it is more beneficial for Armenia to settle the conflict despite
the costs this will entail.

– Do you see any opportunities to improve the Turkish-Armenian
relations before the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict?

– I think that the issue of the Turkish-Armenian relations should
have been settled a long time ago. What we put across to the Turkish
authorities is that there is no justification for keeping the border
closed. At the same time if there was the settlement of the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict, this would probably lead to the opening of the
border very rapidly.

– During your last visit to Yerevan you said that the 2007
parliamentary elections will be a very serious test for Armenia. Does
it mean that you’ve already had some concerns regarding the upcoming
elections?

– What I hear from the Armenian political leaders and those who are
in charge for administering the elections is that all preparations
are made to ensure absolutely free and fair elections. I don’t have
any independent ability to judge whether this is the case. There will
be an electoral observation carried out by the OSCE/ODIHR.

This will be the first major elections in Armenia after the adoption of
the Action Plan and it will determine the quality of our relations. The
elections will show what degree of commitment Armenia has towards
meeting the goals and objectives reflected in the Action Plan. The
upcoming elections will be crucially important and we will be following
them with great interest.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress