RECOGNITION OF UNRECOGNIZED: NAGORNO KARABAKH PRESS DIGEST
Regnum, Russia
Sept 27 2006
Will the talks be continued?
"Vardan Oskanyan’s refusal to meet with the Azeri FM means that he is
afraid that his arguments might be weak," 525th Daily (Baku) reports
the Spokesman of the Azeri Foreign Ministry Tair Tagizade as saying.
Tagizade says that the main point is that the talks must be
continued. "All Oskanyan’s statements about Azerbaijan’s activities at
the UN show the real extent of Armenia’s commitment in the regional and
world politics," says Tagizade. He notes that the OSCE MG co-chairs
still believe that the next meeting should be between the Armenian
and Azeri FMs.
The press office of the Armenian Foreign Ministry has published the
response of the acting spokesman of the FM Vladimir Karapetyan to
Public Radio’s question:
"In their last few days’ comments some Azeri officials have used
quite new diplomatic vocabulary. Particularly, the spokesman of the
Azeri Foreign Ministry has appeared with a very strange statement
that the Armenian side is "avoiding" the FM meeting because of "the
weakness of its arguments." Do we actually have nothing to say during
the forthcoming meeting?
I am trying to understand what psychic complexes might have forced
my Azeri colleague to make such unbecoming statements about the FMs
meeting. Perhaps, the only thing left for a diplomat of a country who
has lost the war it started itself is to cover his impotence with
senseless arrogance and idle talk. I am really surprised to hear
such a bunch of words from Azeri officials. I say "bunch of words"
because what they are saying makes absolutely no sense, no logic,
nothing one could call a thought. I see absolutely no responsibility
and sense of the moment in their words.
The Armenian side takes the talks very seriously and expects the same
from the opposite side. We have repeatedly said that we approve of the
last proposals of the OSCE MG co-chairs and hope that the talks will
be continued. In the last years Azerbaijan has shown increasingly
strong negation towards the peace talks: in 1998 they rejected the
"common state" scenario, in 2000 they dismissed the Key-West proposals
and, today, they are drawing back from the agreements produced by the
Minsk Group. We would like to say once again that the Minsk Group is
the best format for the Armenian side at the moment.
The transfer of the problem to other instances necessitates the
involvement of Nagorno Karabakh in the talks. Talks are not an end in
itself for us: we are not going to take part in the Azeri games. If
Azerbaijan has no more arguments to give to the MG and hopes to get
some dim profits in a structure where members are not well aware of
the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, it is playing a dangerous game. If
Azerbaijan got into this game against its will only because it tried
to capitalize on the agendas of other participants, it should have
well estimated the possible consequences of such a policy. Azerbaijan
must realize that we will not solve the problem by imposing scenarios
on each other. We must find the solution ourselves however hard it
might be.
On the other hand, the Azeri authorities may well be trying to use
the "card" of Nagorno Karabakh for their own domestic needs. If
so, this is not a political question. In any case, the Azeri side
will not be able to mislead anybody. They will not be able to deny
that it was they who carried out the first ethnic cleansing in the
former Soviet Union, it was they who first started a large-scale war
against people they consider to be their own citizens, it is they
who are destroying Armenian cultural heritage, it is they who are
showing absolute negation of any contacts with the Armenian side –
contacts that could pave the way for cooperation and could alleviate
the tensions (Noyan Tapan).
"One could expect such a position from Armenia. Armenia believes
that it has won the war, and Azerbaijan must concede during the
talks, but Azerbaijan will not deign to do it," Azeri political
expert Rasim Musabekov says in an interview to APA news agency while
commenting on Armenia’s attempts to evade the talks. Musabekov says
that there is only one way to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem:
"The hegemonic states must bring Yerevan to reason, otherwise, the
talks will give no results, and Armenia will continue pushing forward
its non-constructive position."
Azeri political expert Zardusht Alizade says that, in fact, there
is no negotiating process, it’s just a show: "Neither side wants
to drastically change its position. There is no real ground for
concessions. Armenia says that Nagorno-Karabakh must become independent
and join it, Azerbaijan says that it will not give Armenia a single
inch of its land. Nobody is searching for concessions outside these
principles and appeals to the public and the international law. Both
the sides and the co-chairs approach the problem superficially and
are trying to find a solution that would bring closer the interests
of the sides, but the interests are not coming closer. For the
problem to be resolved, one of the sides must renounce its basic
principles." Alizade says that some powerful forces are trying to
freeze and to prolong the conflict. Now, the sides are in a stalemate
and are just feigning talks.
Meanwhile, political expert Vafa Guluzade calls the Karabakh peace
process "just a nonsense."
168 Zham daily asks Spokesman of the Armenian Foreign Ministry Vladimir
Karapetyan: "A few months ago Armenian President Robert Kocharyan said
that, if the Karabakh talks reach a deadlock, Armenia will recognize
the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Will Armenia actually
do it?"
Karapetyan responds: "You have said yourself – ‘if the talks reach
a deadlock.’ The present situation is not a deadlock."
168 Zham asks: "And what about Armenia’s statements that if Azerbaijan
continues its attempts to transfer the Karabakh problem to the UN,
it will have to negotiate with Nagorno-Karabakh – something Azerbaijan
will never agree to. Isn’t it a deadlock?"
Karapetyan answers: "You can’t be 100% sure it will not, more
precisely, we will learn this during the forthcoming processes." "One
thing is sure, Armenia wants the talks to be continued in one or
another form. The Armenian side will in no way lead the process into
a deadlock."
"The present deadlock in the Karabakh peace process is the result of
Azerbaijan’s illegal territorial claims, the removal of Karabakh – the
most interested party – from the talks and the excessive stupidity and
historical-legal ignorance of various mediators," the first Russian
Ambassador to Armenia Vladimir Stupishin says in an interview to
PanARMENIAN.Net. He says that for the same reasons one should not
expect progress in 2007 and 2008. "That’s exactly why it is hard to
say when Karabakh will come back into the process."
As regards the possibility of military solution, Baku is not calling
for application of force, in fact, it is threatening Armenia
with war. This is inadmissible, even if this is just a bluff,"
says Stupishin. He says that the optimal way now is to preserve the
status quo in all parameters lest the Armenians might be charged with
wrecking the talks: "Talks – however long they might be – are always
better than war." "During the 15 years of their independence the
Republic of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh Republic have strengthened
their statehoods, have tried to overcome the problems of blockade
existence, have successfully resisted the aggression of Azeri revenge
seekers. Armenia have preserved friendly, allied relations with
Russia and has cooperated with Moscow in the framework of the CIS,
CSTO and other organizations," says Stupishin.
"Though not recognized formally by any government, Karabakh’s
continued march to secure lasting independence is irreversible,"
says Nagorno-Karabakh’s Representative to the United States, Vardan
Barseghyan.
Referring to DiplomaticTraffic.com, PanARMENIAN.Net reports Barseghyan
as saying: "There is no going back for us." "Just because Stalin gave
Karabakh to Azerbaijan does not mean that the international community
has to reinforce what Stalin did." "What Stalin did at the beginning
of the last century was against the will of our people. And now we
are at the beginning of the 21st Century."
So far, negotiations among the key players since the 1994 ceasefire,
notably through the OSCE’s Minsk Group, have produced a lot of
statements and occasional glimmers of hope, but no concrete progress
on a lasting political solution.
But, clearly, Karabakh is not waiting for others to decide its
future. It has been working to shore up its defenses while steadily
improving its economy and the lot of its 145,000 people. Barseghyan
notes that GDP doubled from 2001 to 2005 (increasing to $114 million
from $53 million), and economic growth last year was 14 percent.
Although Karabakh is still a very poor country in a seemingly
precarious political situation, its people are evidently working hard
to improve their economy and prospects for the future.
Asked about possible recognition of their republic, Barseghyan
says: "There are positive tendencies" in that direction. He said
"governments recognize the fact that the Nagorno Karabakh Republic
has been established and functioning as a country, and more and more
contacts look like regular government-to-government contacts."
"However, Washington closely watches the developments in Karabakh
including economic progress and democratization though the US
government tries not to portray these as regular contacts, for obvious
reasons," says Barseghyan.
"I believe the world recognizes that we deserve to be free,
and as a minimum we should avoid another disaster. International
recognition of Karabakh’s independence will discourage another
attack by Azerbaijan. The ceasefire has lasted for 12 years already,
and we believe this is due to the natural balance of forces," says
Barseghyan. He notes that Azerbaijan’s oil revenue has been used in
part to strengthen its armed forces, and Karabakh (and Armenia) stress
to the US Congress and administration that a military balance should
be maintained to prevent a new attack by Azerbaijan," says Barseghyan.
Recognition of unrecognized
Nagorno Karabakh welcomes the conduct of referendums in Transdnestr
and South Ossetia, Nagorno Karabakh President Arkady Gukasyan says
in an interview with Novosti Armenia news agency. "I believe that
the peoples of Transdnestr and South Ossetia have the right to hold
referendums and to once again confirm the will they expressed long
before," says Gukasyan. "I think it is always wrong and bad to ignore
a nation’s will. Such problems must be solved on the basis of the
right of a nation to self-determination and, naturally, we welcome
these referendums," says Gukasyan.
On Sept 18 Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergey Shamba received Vice
Chairman of the Commission on International Cooperation and Public
Diplomacy of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation Sergey
Markov and Director of the Russian and Asian Programs of International
Security Institute (Washington) NikolaiZlobin.
Caucasian Knot news agency reports the sides to discuss the political
results of the referendum in Transdnestr and to express their support
for the political rights and sovereignty of the Transdnestr people.
The sides also discussed some practical steps to raise the
international authority of the Republic of Abkhazia and security in
the region. If Kosovo’s independence is recognized, the world community
will universally apply this principle in Abkhazia, Transdnestr, South
Ossetia and Nagorno Karabakh, Markov said after the meeting. He said
that this principle will generate a new wave of independences in the
post-Soviet area.
"We must respect the wish of the residents of Transdnestr to get
independence," Vice Speaker of the Russian State Duma Vladimir
Zhirinovsky said on Sept 20. He said that a hundred of new independent
states will appear on the world map soon and mentioned Karabakh and
other unrecognized states. Zhirinovsky proposed opening a Russian
consulate in Transdnestr. (Analitika.az).
The European Union does not recognize the results of the September
17 referendum in Transdnestr. Before the referendum, EU and OSCE
officials had repeatedly said that it was inexpedient to hold a
referendum in Transdnestr. OSCE President Karel de Gucht said that
the Transdnestr referendum would make the situation in the region
even more complicated, PanARMENIAN.Net reports with reference to the
official representative of the European Commission Pietro Petrucci.
Concerning the referendum in Transdnestr, Deputy Chief Editor of
Kommersant daily (Russia) Azer Mursaliyev says that referendum is a way
to pressure the other conflicting party. "This referendum will have no
legal consequences. It was declared illegal from the very beginning
by all big international organizations. In fact, it was just a way
for Transdnestr to remind of itself. The referendum in South Ossetia
will have the same scenario and outcome," says Mursaliyev. Concerning
Nagorno Karabakh, Mursaliyev says that they have already held several
referendums: "But all this is simply miserable from the legal point of
view. Any referendum is considered recognized if its very conduct is
recognized, if it is observed by experts from specific organizations –
from the UN to the CE; while several foreigners coming to unrecognized
units on their own will or on somebody’s request are not a guarantee
of serious legal consequences" (525th Daily).
The separatist units existing in the post-Soviet area have picked
up the habit of holding referendums. Thereby, they are trying to
"Balcanize" the post-Soviet area and to acquire the Serbian-Montenegrin
and Kosovan experience of ethnic-national self-determination. They
are doing it in different ways: electing "presidents," voting for
"constitutions," imitating "independence referendums." And all
those "countries" forget that the US and the EU have recognized the
Montenegrin and Kosovan cases as unique and not subject to blind
political imitation. (Zerkalo).
The head of the Inter-Ethnic Relations Department of the Institute
of Political and Military Analysis of Russia Sergey Markedonov says
that Azerbaijan’s attempt to transfer the Karabakh peace process to
the UN is not just a coincidence. "Nagorno Karabakh Republic will
shortly join the ‘parade of referendums’ of unrecognized post-Soviet
republics – on December 10 2006 the Karabakh people will vote on draft
Constitution. The key point of the NKR Constitution is not division
of government or distribution of powers among the president, the
parliament and the Cabinet, but the territorial problem: the key
question of the political debates over the draft Constitution is
where the homeland starts and where it ends for the Karabakh people.
They in Stepanakert are sure that in three months they will
institutionalize their republic both territorially and politically.
The last attribute of a fully-fledged state is Constitution and the
adoption of own Constitution will bring NKR closer to international
recognition," says Markedonov.