GUAM POLICE PLAN TO REPLACE RUSSIAN PEACEKEEPERS
Vladimir Solovyev

Kommersant, Russia
Sept 27 2006

The foreign ministers of the GUAM nations – Georgia, Ukraine,
Azerbaijan and Moldova – have agreed to set up their own police force
that is to replace the Russian peacekeepers in the conflict zones
of the CIS. Simultaneously, the pro-Western GUAM states are lobbying
the United Nations to pass an anti-Russian resolution. Kommersant has
learned that the no-holds-barred offensive against Russia is related
to worries that Russia is about to recognize the breakaway republics.

Military Council

The meeting of the GUAM foreign ministers took place Monday in New
York during the 61st General Assembly. They met to discuss the progress
of settlement of the frozen conflicts in the CIS. It is notable that,
although Russia is involved in the Abkhazian, South Ossetian, Nagorny
Karabakh and Transdniestrian conflicts as a guarantor of peace, no
Russian representatives were invited to the meeting. U.S. Assistant
Secretary of State David Kramer was present, however.

After a short consultation under the observation of Kramer, the
ministers unanimously decided that police peacekeeping forces from
the GUAM states should replace the Russian peacekeepers in conflict
zones on the territories of Georgia and Moldova. In particular, as
the Georgian foreign minister elucidated, an agreement was reached
that GUAM peacekeepers should participate in peacekeeping operations
in the zones of the Abkhazian and South Ossetian conflicts.

Implementing the agreement has been postponed indefinitely, however.

The decision to establish GUAM peacekeeping forces was made only in
May of this year and the quartet of countries has yet to form the
joint police force.

The ministers also conciliated a strategic plan for joint activities
"to expand international support in issues of peaceful settlement of
drawn-out conflicts on the territories of GUAM countries." The main
goal of the plan was for a resolution to be passed at the current
General Assembly session on the frozen conflicts. "The issue of the
conflicts was placed on the agenda of the session and it is logical
that some document reflecting the position of the international
community would be passed after the discussion," Moldovan Minister
of Reintegration Vasile Sova told Kommersant. "Enormous efforts are
now being made to get the settlement process moving. International
support is needed for it too."

GUAM’s desire to rid itself of Russian peacekeepers and set a firm
course toward the internationalization of the conflict regions means
that the group is extremely dissatisfied with Russia’s behavior in
settling the crises. The decision of the GUAM foreign ministers in New
York is one more step to reduce Moscow’s role as much as possible in
the negotiations processes of conflict settlement in those countries.

Coming on Strong

It is no coincidence that the GUAM decision has been times to the
UN General Assembly session. The current session has great meaning
for that quartet of countries. GUAM put up a unified front against
Russia even before the session began and has already scored important
victories. In spite of Russia’s active resistance, GUAM lobbied
successfully to have the issue of the frozen conflicts placed on the
session’s agenda. The UN general committee first refused Georgia,
Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova’s request to place the issue on the
agenda. However, once they received the support of the United States
and Great Britain, GUAM got the decision it wanted by one vote. The
results of the vote show the tension of the fight. Sixteen countries
supported the GUAM proposal, 15 opposed, 65 abstained and about 100
were simply absent from the voting.

Novruz Mamedov, head of international relations for the Azerbaijani
presidential administration, told about the diplomatic skirmishes
behind the scenes at The UN. "First Russian and Armenia had the issue
rejected," he recalled. "But finally the bureau couldn’t help paying
attention to the insistence and pressure from the GUAM countries,
and then the issue was put to a vote again… We regret that Russia
has again taken such a position. It makes us think certain things."

The placement of the issue of the conflicts on the UN session agenda
was Russia’s first defeat, since it was an acknowledgment of the
ineffectiveness of the Russian peacekeepers in the conflict zones.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili continued the offensive against
Moscow. Inspired by a NATO decision to begin an "intensive dialog"
with Tbilisi, he accused Russia of the "occupation" of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia from the podium of the UN. "Those regions," he said,
"were annexed by our neighbor to the north, Russia, which supports
their inclusion as part of it, intentionally making a mass issuance of
Russian passports in violation of international law… The residents
of the disputed regions live under the bandit occupation of Russia. I
doubt that anyone in this auditorium would tolerate such interference
on their land."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Boris Tarasyuk could not resist a jab
of his own against Russia. "Ukraine will reject any attempt to draw
parallels between the problem of Kosovo and the unsettled conflicts
on the territory of the GUAM countries," he said, joining the polemic
against Moscow, which insists that, if Kosovo is given independence,
the regional conflicts in the CIS should be settled the same way.

Preemptive Strike

Moscow, having suffered a number of delicate setbacks, prefers to
pretend that GUAM’s successes do not upset it. Commenting on the
inclusion of the frozen conflicts in the former USSR on the agenda of
the 61st General Assembly session, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov said that it was not evidence of the UN’s interest in the
problem, since on 16 states voted for it, while the rest were either
against it or abstaining.

The meeting of the GUAM foreign ministers did not go uncommented
on either. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov said of it that
"Georgia is trying to take advantage of the military potential of
GUAM to replace Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The presence of additional forces on the territory of Georgia allows
it to flex its muscles anytime it feels like it, as it did recently
in the Kodor Gorge, and it gives it the opportunity to take advantage
of them as an additional card to play in the standoff with Sukhumi
and Tskhinvali." Ivanov made it clear that they are ready for that
in Moscow. "Russia supports a settlement of the existing conflicts
only through political methods and it will find adequate measures to
prevent the development of a situation in that scenario," he warned.

Moscow’s patronage of the unrecognized republics is the cause of
the GUAM countries aggressive rhetoric. Moldova and Georgia, which
are dealing with the separatism, are seriously concerned that Russia
will be able to gain recognition for the regions that reject them. A
referendum has already been held in Transdniestria in which 97 percent
of the residents voted for independence and subsequent unification
with Russia. South Ossetia will hold an analogical plebiscite in
November. A source in the Moldovan government admitted to Kommersant
that the current GUAM offensive could be considered a preemptive
strike. There have been fears in Chisinau recently that Moscow will
begin procedures to recognize Transdniestria based on the results
of the referendum. "Moscow’s strategic goal," the source said, "is
to change the political course of Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia. They
want those countries to coordinate all of their foreign policy steps
with Russia. That is how the Kremlin defines its influence in the
former Soviet Union. They need to direct a friendly chorus of voices
in the post-Soviet republics and force them to share their point of
view. The frozen conflicts are an influence factor.