International Periscope

Newsweek

Oct. 9, 2006 issue – Georgia: Russian Rumble
Could Russia and Georgia soon be at war? After Georgian authorities
arrested four Russian military officers last week and charged them
with spying and terrorism, both sides have been doing a very good
imitation of preparing for full-scale conflict. Georgian Interior
Minister Vano Merabishvili claimed that the Russian Army was
mobilizing in North Ossetia, and was preparing troops for action at a
Russian base in Akhalkalaki, inside Georgia. Calls for "decisive
action" came from Moscow parliamentarians as hundreds of nationals
were evacuated from Tbilisi.
How did relations get so bad? The two neighbors have been at
loggerheads ever since the pro-U.S. Mikhail Saakashvili took power in
Tbilisi in 2003.The Georgian president has moved his country rapidly
toward NATO membership, and in apparent retaliation, Russia banned
Georgian imports. And in recent months, Russian-backed separatists
inside Georgia have stepped up operations, further heightening
tensions.
Still, for all of last week’s saber rattling, it’s unlikely that war
will break out. Instead, Russia has chosen to protest to the United
Nations… where Saakashvili recently accused the Kremlin of a
"gangster occupation" of two breakaway Georgian provinces, Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. That could play into Georgia’s hands. If the United
Nations becomes involved in resolving Georgia’s territorial conflicts,
Moscow’s jealously guarded role as chief peacekeeper in the former
Soviet Union will be eroded. Also, Tbilisi reckons it standsa better
chance of ultimately recovering its wayward regions with the United
Nations in charge. Still, provoking Russia is a dangerous
tactic. There are powerful war parties in both Moscow and Tbilisi who
are spoiling for a fight. If it comes, there’s little doubt that
Georgia will come off worse against a Russian Army flush with oil
money and confidence.
-Owen Matthews