"TODAY AZERBAIJAN IS NOT READY FOR EITHER PEACE OR WAR": INTERVIEW WITH HAYK DEMOYAN

Regnum, Russia
Sept 30 2006

Hayk Demoyan – candidate of historical sciences, expert, author of
numerous works on Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azeri relationsREGNUM:
After the well-known statement of the OSCE MG co-chairs, the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process has got into a stalemate. Whom does
this situation benefit more and what can we expect from the possible
future meetings of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents and
FMs?The present situation is the logical result of what is called
a negotiating process. Despite all efforts and proposals, the sides
remain diametrically opposite on the key issue – the status of Nagorno
Karabakh. What is status? Status is what Nagorno Karabakh has today,
and it would be naïve to hope that Nagorno Karabakh will agree to any
proposal or referendum that may reduce the existing status, that is,
the independent existence of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

In this light, I would like to advise not to keep the public opinion
in Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh under the pressure of the concept
of unsettled conflict. For Nagorno Karabakh Armenians, who suffered
aggression on the part of Azerbaijan, the problem has been solved quite
acceptably. One should not keep society under the strain of negative
information flows. The problem of the Azerbaijani side is that they
reject any scenario proposed and get very nervous about the concepts
of "compromise" and "mutual concessions." Unfortunately, they have
not realized yet – or they don’t want to – that talks with NKR is
the only acceptable way to peace. Under no pretext or temptation,
will the Armenian side renounce what it has gained through losses
and sufferings. It will not agree to pass this road again.

It is very hard yet to say what exactly the co-chairs will put on the
negotiating table. However, it is obvious that 2006 is already gone
for any agreement. Today, Azerbaijan has little room for maneuver,
and its only tactics are to blame the Armenian side for wrecking the
negotiating process. However, everybody knows that the key reason of
failures, so far, has been exactly the "whims" of Baku.

REGNUM: They in Azerbaijan keep making bellicose statements, like
"the Armenians are afraid of war," "We will liberate our lands by
any means" and so on. What are they after?

First, the situation when, on the one hand, the sides are negotiating
peace, and, on the other, Baku keeps making revengeful militarist
statements is beyond any logic. Obviously, in their fit of revenge,
the Azeri authorities forget that war is something very bad and it
is bad for the Azeri people too. Second, it seems that the Azeri
authorities are convincing themselves that they have already won a
virtual victory over the Armenians and, then, are surprised to see
that it is not so in reality.

To keep showing off bravado before cameras in hope that the opposite
side will be horrified with their empty talk is something the weak
do. In fact, we all know about bullying, malnutrition, unsanitary
conditions and corruption in the Azerbaijani army – and about the
huge peace-time human casualties they are sustaining – allegedly
because of the Armenians.

The conclusion is obvious: today, Azerbaijan is not ready for
either peace or war. So, the Azerbaijani leaders’ statements that
"Azerbaijan’s patience has limits" and "Azerbaijan will use any –
even military – means" to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem are
just irresponsible groundless words – something meant for certain
sections of the Azerbaijani society and easily accepted by them. At
the same time, there are many people in Azerbaijan who perfectly
know what military capacities their country actually has and realize
what consequences a new war by the Azerbaijani leaders may have
for Azerbaijan.

REGNUM: Armenia and Azerbaijan very seldom agree on anything
in the negotiating process. What do they hope for and what role
does the information war have at the current stage?Azerbaijan has
managed to overcome a bit the initially pro-Armenian position in the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Today, it poses as a victim of the
Armenian aggression but it forgets that it got into such a situation
because of its own aggression against the peaceful population of
Nagorno Karabakh. It is not a secret that for Azerbaijan the only
acceptable solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is "Nagorno
Karabakh without Armenians."All their promises of autonomy – even
the highest possible one – are just empty talk with Oriental accent
for the poorly aware international audience. The war of 1991-1993 has
shown Azerbaijan’s resolution to expel Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians from
their historical land by any means, while Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians
have proved their resolution to die for their land.

Azerbaijan’s current policy – particularly, to present Armenians as
an enemy and to officially support anti-Armenian propaganda – proves
that the Azerbaijani side has not changed its initial position on
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

Whether Azerbaijan likes it or not, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is
a fully-fledged state and, if somebody does not like it, let him
continue calling NKR "so-called." This changes nothing at all. This
is just self-complacency. Azerbaijan’s provisos that "the status of
Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be determined under continuing occupation and
ethnic cleansing" is just a political slyness. The Armenian side has a
big experience of work with the Azeri "peacemakers" and knows well that
any one-sided concession is just the beginning of new – and probably
bigger – ones. They in Baku must put up with the fact that Azeri
territory is no longer 86,600 sq km, as it was in the Soviet times,
and that in the West Azerbaijan will border on two Armenians states,
who are ready to rebuff any military adventures and aggressive plans.

REGNUM: Recently the Azerbaijani press reported that the Heydar
Aliyev Foundation and Azerbaijani MPs are going to appeal to the
Hague War Crimes Court against the Armenian and NKR leaders. How
are they going to succeed in the matter?If I were in their shoes,
I would not do it as there are plenty of counter-facts. Azerbaijan’s
propaganda machine is searching for new refined ways to compromise
Armenia and its leaders. They don’t notice the log in their own eye:
in fact, the Azeri leaders are the best candidates for appearing in
the Hague for answering the following charges: 1. For unleashing a
cruel war against the peaceful population of Nagorno-Karabakh and
borderline regions of Armenia,

2. For blocking roads and transport arteries for humanitarian
cargoes, particularly, for the regions ridden by earthquake in
1988,3. For applying internationally prohibited arms against peaceful
civilians,4. For using the tactics of "human wave" during the war –
tactics that consumed lots of young and untrained Azeri recruits
as cannon fodder,5. For recruiting thousands of international
terrorists and hirelings against the national-liberation movement of
the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, 6. For enrolling hundreds of criminals
into war against peaceful Armenian population,

7. For applying air-raids against peaceful settlements and for using
pellet air bombs,8. For barbarously destroying lots of Armenian
historical-cultural monuments in Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan.This
is not the full list of what Azerbaijan has done. The "Azerbaijani
dossier" for the Hague may be easily complied from neutral sources and
international observers’ reports about Azerbaijan’s criminal aggression
against the peaceful population of Nagorno Karabakh.Ilham Aliyev’s
statement that Armenia will never be match to Azerbaijan economically
is an element of the psychological attack Azerbaijan used both during
and after the war. Such statements are just for calming themselves
down. Aliyev perfectly understands that Azerbaijan will never get
everything and at once.When alleging that Armenia is isolated from
all international projects and that almost half of its population
is starving, the Azeri authorities forget that, in terms of economic
and human potential, Azerbaijan is much weaker than Armenia, NKR and
Diaspora taken together and that, if they synchronize and mobilize
their resources, they will be by far stronger than Azerbaijan. The
Azeri authorities should better think about their own people.REGNUM:
There is a view that Azerbaijan will not benefit from the return of
territories. Is it true?

If, hypothetically, Azerbaijan gets 2-3 districts around NKR, it is
hard to imagine that people will go back there. Most of the people
who lived there before have either emigrated from Azerbaijan or have
well integrated into the Absheron social-economic infrastructure.

The factor of time in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is not just
threats that "in due time we will become rich and strong and will
get back our lands." One should not forget that much has changed in
the conflict zone and in the psychology of people in the past years.

There is a whole generation of youths who have no idea about their
neighbors and regard them only as enemies. Those people have no
memories about peaceful co-existence and good neighbor cooperation.

This point is never considered in the abstract rhetoric of conflicts
resolution, but it should be considered – as hasty decisions and
pressure by third sides can spur up new dangerous developments in
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone.

As regards the concept of restoration of territorial integrity as
opposed to the self-determination of already self-determined nations,
it already sounds like anachronism and is fraught with new calamities
and ruined lives.

In fact, they in the West perfectly understand that the post-Soviet
"metropolises" will never get back their ethnic autonomies, but
they consider it a movais tone to talk about it. The new parade of
independences – Eritrea, East Timor, self-determined Montenegro and the
Kosovo process – can only add to the arguments for the independence of
the former Soviet autonomies. The independence of NKR was proclaimed
on the basis of the international law and in line with the Soviet
legislation. In this light, the last initiative of GUAM is certainly
a challenge but its outcome is pre-determined. Azerbaijan believes it
to be a diplomatic success, but it is just a small temporary tactical
advantage which is good for propaganda only and will give the country
no dividends at all. Let’s not forget that the 4 UN resolutions on
Nagorno Karabakh – the documents Azerbaijan has failed to peruse but
keeps referring to – were ignored by its own self.

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