SAAKASHVILI IS CARVING A STRAIGHT PATH TO THE GOAL HE ALONE SEES CLEARLY
by Yuri Simonjan, Anatroly Gordiyenko, Vladimir Ivanov, Alexandra Samarina
Translated by A. Ignatkin

Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, September 29-30, 2006, pp. 1, 6
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
October 2, 2006 Monday

TBILISI: BEYOND THE POINT OF NO RETURN;

The Latest Russian-Georgian Scandal: Tbilisi May Have Pushed Moscow
Too Far; On Wednesday, September 27, the authorities of Georgia had
six Russian officers arrested and charged with espionage. Relations
between Moscow and Tbilisi have finally passed the point of no
return. The Russian Embassy in Tbilisi is longer accepting visa
applications from Georgians.

On Wednesday, September 27, the authorities of Georgia had six
Russian officers arrested and charged with espionage and subversive
activities. "Their arrest is a valid reason for having the UN Security
Council handle the problem," because "the situation is quite serious,"
said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The gravity of his words
is a clear indication that relations between Moscow and Tbilisi have
finally passed the point of no return.

Everything started when Georgian police surrounded the headquarters
of the Russian Army Group in the Caucasus. Interior Minister Vano
Merabishvili immediately made a public statement, announcing that
Georgian counter-intelligence had caught "several persons including
four officers of the Russian Armed Forces GRU (Main Intelligence
directorate) and over a dozen Georgians." As for the police cordons,
Merabishvili explained that Georgian law enforcement agencies wanted
another Russian officer ("GRU Lieutenant Colonel Konstantin Pichugin")
for espionage, and that he was inside the building. "We appealed to
the command of the Russian Army Group in the Caucasus to hand over the
spy who enjoys immunity on the territory that is off limits to us,"
the minister said.

According to Merabishvili, the network of spies was run by Colonel
Anatoly Sinitsyn of the Russian intelligence – organizer of the
terrorist act in the town of Gori on February 1, 2005, where several
Georgian police officers were killed. "He is running his assets from
Yerevan, Armenia, from Unit 44843 of the Armed Forces of the Russian
Federation," Merabishvili said.

Merabishvili also said that the "network we’ve neutralized concentrated
on Georgia’s combat readiness, programs and plans for Georgia-NATO
cooperation, opposition parties and non-governmental organizations,
certain units of the Defense Ministry of Georgia, personnel, arms
procurement, sea ports, railroads." Merabishvili even identified the
arrested Russians by name and rank: GRU lieutenant colonels Alexander
Savva and Dmitri Kazantsev, detained in Tbilisi, Lieutenant Colonel
Alexander Zavgorodny, and Major Alexander Baranov (both from the GRU)
in Batumi. On the morning of September 28, the Georgians reported
the arrest of two more Russian officers.

The Foreign Ministry of Georgia made its move without delay. Ivan
Volynkin at the Russian Embassy in Tbilisi was given a strongly-worded
protest note demanding the handover of Pichugin, still at the
headquarters of the Russian Army Group in the Caucasus.

"The Embassy official was given a thorough account of the reasons
for the arrests made by Georgian law enforcement agencies," a press
release stated. The document proceeded to announce that the Georgians
had permitted the Russians a meeting with the arrestees.

Obviously, all these gestures and explanations failed to satisfy
Moscow. Lavrov, in his comment from the town of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk,
revealed Tbilisi’s true designs and motives. Lavrov presented the
latest developments as all being linked. He recalled Georgian President
Mikhail Saakashvili’s recent criticism of Russia at the UN General
Assembly, and Tbilisi’s actions in the Kodori Gorge.

"Typically, the latest provocation and the latest statements with
regard to the Kodori Gorge that conflict with all existing accords
took place and were made bare days after endorsement of the policy
of advanced cooperation with Georgia by NATO countries," Lavrov
pointed out. The UN Security Council will ponder resolution on the
Georgian-Abkhazian conflict in the near future. "We will insist on
making this document a principal evaluation of Georgia’s subversive
actions in defiance of its own commitments," Russian minister said.

The Russian Foreign Ministry’s reaction to the news from Georgia was
instantaneous. Georgian Ambassador Irakly Chubinishvili was summoned
to the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation on the evening of
September 27. Grigori Karasin, State Secretary and Deputy Foreign
Minister, protested against Georgia’s action and reminded the Georgia
diplomat that the Russian military is organizing the withdrawal of the
Russian military bases from Georgia under the terms of Russian-Georgian
agreements.

Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov described
the events in Georgia as "absolute lawlessness." "They are clearly
trying to provoke us into an inadequate reaction. Russia’s reaction
will remain adequate and reasonable," Ivanov told journalists before
boarding the plane to Portoroj in Slovenia (meeting of the Russia-NATO
Council is scheduled there on September 29). "They deliberately
aggravate the situation in the hope to distract attention from the
problems Georgia is facing. I’m sorry for the Georgian people."

Dismayed by the latest developments, Moscow doesn’t rule out the
possibility of sanctions against Georgia. "Arresting senior Russian
officers on charges of espionage is absurd, to put it mildly. Such
actions conflict with the CIS agreements which state in no uncertain
terms that CIS countries do not spy on one another," said Yuri
Sharandin, chairman of the Federation Council Constitutional Law
Committee and head of the Russian delegation to the Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe. The lawmaker maintains that "these
patently invented and absurd charges" against the Russian officers was
a deliberate gesture. "Inventing evidence of espionage or intelligence
activities is the easiest. What secrets could Georgia be hiding,
a country as small as it is?" Sharandin warned the authorities of
Georgia of the consequences their actions may bring about. "Russian
answer will be more than adequate. We will invoke sanctions against
this country," Sharandin said.

Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Duma Committee for International
Affairs, evaluates the latest action taken by the authorities
of Georgia as an element of a general strategy aimed at causing
Russian-Georgian relations to deteriorate as much as possible.

Kosachev attributes it to the lack of progress in resolution of
conflicts between the government in Tbilisi and breakaway provinces of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. "When the Georgian leadership is compelled
to explain the situation to the population, it immediately refers
to the malicious Russia," the lawmaker said. "We must do whatever it
takes to have our officers released. We must insist on coherent and
exhaustive information on why actions of this sort are undertaken. If
the conflict is not resolved at once, we may always resort to an
adequate response. Say, we may press similar charges against some
Georgians in Russia. I don’t doubt that our secret services have all
necessary information."

By engineering such provocations, Georgia violates all international
norms, Gennadi Gudkov of the Security Committee of the Duma said.

"Under the circumstances, the Russian response may take the form of a
show of strength – say, a blockade of the Georgian Black Sea ports,"
Gudkov said. "Send the Black Sea Fleet to run an exercise somewhere
off the Georgian coast. Why not? Assign secret services and make sure
that they do their job. We have so many Georgians in Russia doing
what not exactly checks with the acting legislation. Methods must
be adequate. If the Georgians calm down, it’s okay. If they don’t,
we must show them to what lengths we could go."

A source close to the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces says
that the latest developments in Georgia are just another attempt by
Tbilisi to negate Russian control over the situation. "Saakashvili
must have secured Washington’s support in the matter of Abkhazia.

Otherwise, his aggressiveness, which transcends all accepted and
acceptable practices and Russian-Georgian accords, could only be
described as political stupidity," the officer said. The source
confirms that Russian peacekeepers operating in Georgia "might include
some intelligence officers at the tactical army level – who provide
the peacekeeper command with the information necessary for planning
or whatever." "It is even possible to assume – as unlikely as it
is – that there may have been a small group of GRU officers at the
headquarters of the Russian Army Group in the Caucasus," the officer
said. "If there were, then they merely observed the American military
instructors training units of the Georgian national army."

Even Western analysts suspect "American involvement" in the latest
developments in Georgia. Arnaud Kalika, Strategic Information Bulletin
editor (TTU, Paris), said: "Military contacts between Georgia and the
United States being so close, I cannot imagine such an operation being
organized by the Georgians without Washington’s knowledge." Kalika
went on to say: "In fact, such an operation could even be coordinated
with the CIA. The Americans and their CIA made it plain more than
once that they would try to thwart the Russian policy in the southern
part of the Caucasus. The episode with the Russian officers fit the
pattern. Washington views Georgia as its own turf now. I’d even say
that the United States will try to prevent Russian sanctions against
Georgia. Presidents Putin and Bush will probably be discussing the
matter before very long."

The situation in Tbilisi remains complicated. Russian Embassy
spokesman Mikhail Svirin maintains that the headquarters of the
Russian Army Group in the Caucasus remains surrounded by Georgian
police. The Russians have assigned an armored vehicle to guard the
entrance. Svirin confirms that the Embassy is longer accepting visa
applications from Georgians.

Economic leverage

Even if Moscow decides to suspend all import from Georgia, economic
effect of this decision cannot hurt Georgia as bad as the ban on wines
and mineral water did. Statistical data from the customs indicate that
Georgian wines and mineral water accounted for 56.4% of all Georgian
export to Russia last year. Nothing else can match these articles:
spirits accounted for 12.2% of all export, ferrous alloys for 12%,
and nuts, fruits, and so on for 19.2%.

Foods account for almost half of the Russian export to Georgia
(51.1%). Tbilisi can always recompense with enlarging import of
foodstuffs from other countries.

Fuel and energy supplies are the chink in Georgia’s armor. Georgia
is almost entirely dependent on Russian natural gas. It is paying
$110 per 1,000 cubic meters nowadays. If Russia decides to boost the
price or suspend the deliveries altogether, Georgia will be compelled
to seek alternative sources of gas – and do it without delay. (And
Moscow should bear in mind that Russian gas to loyal Armenia is
exported via the territory of Georgia.) Along with everything else,
RAO Unified Energy Systems sells electricity to Georgia in winter,
when Georgia experiences power shortages.