IT’S NOT THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Denis MacShane
The Guardian, UK
Oct 3 2006
European politics is febrile and unhappy – and Britain is unlikely
to be insulated from the dramatic developments taking place.
Austria has followed Sweden in replacing a government that followed
Bill Clinton’s famous injunction "It’s the economy, stupid." The
arrival of a socialist chancellor, Alfred Gusenbauer, in the grandiose
Hapsburg palaces from where the small Austrian state is run, follows
hard on the heels of the replacement of Sweden’s social democratic
government by a new rightwing coalition.
In both cases, the outgoing governments had complacently patted
themselves on the back for enjoying the best records in Europe
for growth, job-creation, inward investment and an overall sense
of competence. But delivering a strong economic record, it seems,
is no longer enough to stay in power.
The new Austrian chancellor, Alfred Gusenbauer, is a solid, not to
say stolid party apparatchik who has been a tortoise to the flashier
hare of the outgoing Austrian leader, Wolfgang Schlussel. Not a single
opinion poll put the Austrian left ahead of their rivals until the
poll itself on Sunday.
Those trilling over David Cameron as a new JFK, as if protecting the
rightist historian Andrew Roberts from a jellyfish sting was on a
par with Kennedy’s heroism in saving his naval comrades after their
boat was sunk in the second world war, should look at the steady,
unflashy progress of the new homespun, barely photogenic leaders in
Austria and Sweden.
The Austrian upheaval fits into a wider picture of political turmoil
and rapid electoral changes all over central and eastern Europe. The
Czech ruling ODS party – chosen by William Hague as the only rightist
party willing to join the Tories in the new nationalist grouping
in the EU – has just lost its majority in parliament. The Polish
government under the Kaczynski twins has seen its majority disappear
as its extreme rightist and anti-semitic allies can no longer stay in
government. The Slovakian government is a regional embarrassment with
governing parties using language about Roma, Jews and the Hungarian
minority straight out of the 1920s. Meanwhile in Hungary, the prime
minister struggles to survive after his obscene outburst about telling
lies to voters.
This could all be written off as folklorist Danubian eccentricity
save that the coalition parties in Germany have seen the biggest ever
slump in their votes in regional and Berlin elections. The big gains
in Austria were made by the extreme right who won 15% of the votes.
France faces an election for a new president next April with many
fearing that the Jew-baiting, EU-hating, xenophobic Jean Marie le Pen
will get enough votes to derail the mainstream political parties. The
French left remains pathetically divided. There will be a Troyskyist,
Communist, Green, Workerist and Anti-Globalisation candidate standing
against the official socialist party candidate, likely to be Segolène
Royal.
In short, European politics is febrile and unhappy. Populist,
immigrant-blaming and protectionist appeals are finding echoes
everywhere. The anti-Americanism of the left meets the anti-Europeanism
of the right and a demagogy of destructive name-calling crowds out
constructive solutions to today’s problems.
The reason for this is the failure to analyse, let alone come up with
any political answers to the impact of globalisation. Never in such
a short period of time – a generation at the most – have so many
people, so much capital, so many ideas, and so many services and
products – moved from nation to nation at such speed and with such
transformatory impact. Almost every fixed relationship – capital and
labour; men and women; parents and children; employers and workers;
nature and industry; the citizen and the state – has been required
to go through monumental change. In the old established democracies
these centrifugal forces can just be accommodated. In central Europe
politics, the economy and civil society is neither mature nor confident
enough to cope with this upheaval.
Britain is unlikely to be insulated from these dramatic developments.
One can sense British politics turning inwards, neither thinking
global, nor acting local. There is just a whiff of Weimar in the air.
Europe is seen as a problem, not a solution. David Cameron calls
Washington "simplistic" and rejects cooperation in Europe. Voltaire’s
heritage is being eroded as communitarian politics buries freedom
of speech in exchange for freedom from being upset. The new Austrian
chancellor was not keen on the European constitution – hooray! shout
the Tories – but also is no friend of Turkey joining the EU – the
one Conservative line that is positive on Europe.
Austria for the Austrians, like English votes for English laws, has
simplicity of appeal but is a denial of contemporary reality in which
national purity is no longer obtainable, and not desirable in any case.
Meanwhile, President Chirac pleases the crowds on his official visit
to Armenia by telling the Turks they have to apologise for the 1915
massacres of Armenians by the Ottomans if Turkey is to join the EU.
Thus a new populist barrier to making Europe work by including the
predominately Muslim Turkey is put in place by Mr Chirac in his last
months in office. Who will blame the Turks if they turn to Iran,
or Russia and stay in perpetual occupation of Cyprus if all they
receive from Europe are such patronising instructions?
Armenia and Austria are thousands of kilometres apart. But the new
populist, introspective, nation-first politics of Europe coming into
shape – actively encouraged by David Cameron and William Hague but
not directly challenged by Labour – bodes ill for the rest of the
century both in Britain and the rest of Europe.
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