AVERTING A CRASH ON THE EUROPEAN EXPRESS
John Palmer

The Guardian, UK
Oct 5 2006

Turkey’s application to join the European Union can still be salvaged,
despite the opposition of rightwing populists.

The declaration in Brussels this week by the European commissioner
responsible for negotiations on Turkey’s application to join the
EU that "there is still time to prevent a train crash" which would
bring the talks to a sudden halt is good news. Olli Rehn knows in just
five weeks time the European Commission must decide whether or not to
recommend that membership negotiations with Turkey should continue or
be called off. Little wonder then that the Turkish prime minister,
Recep Erdogan, also found time this week to stop off en route from
Washington to Ankara to lobby Tony Blair for continued support for
Turkey’s EU application. A great deal will hang on the final decision
– to be taken by EU heads of government at their December summit in
Brussels – about the entire future of Turkey’s accession negotiations.

Thirty years after Turkey’s original application for EU membership,
the union agreed last year that negotiations could at least begin.

Since then the political atmosphere has turned very sour. Rightwing
populist politicians in some west European countries have campaigned
against admitting Turkey on the grounds that its Muslim culture makes
it too different to Christian Europe. They have also been quick to
exploit the issue of migration to paint an alarmist picture of the
gradual Islamicisation of Europe by Turkey. But even among those who
reject the bigoted confessionalism of the anti-Turkey lobby, there are
many who question whether the EU – which will have 27 member-states
next January – can possibly handle the integration of such a large
and complex country before it has strengthened its own collective
capacity to decide and to act.

On the Turkish side things have also started to go wrong. The pace
of political reform – above all steps to bring the secular Turkish
military high command under democratic control – has slowed.

Opposition nationalist factions have exploited antiquated provisions
of Turkish law to repress the rights to free speech of Kurdish and
Armenian as well as Turkish intellectuals. The strategy appears in
part to have been designed to inflame relations with the EU. But
the commission and the European parliament recognise that the Muslim
government led by Erdogan has done more in a few years to democratise,
modernise and reform Turkey than decades of secular regimes – both
democratic and military dictatorships.

Meanwhile the bloody disintegration of Iraq is further complicating
Turkey’s mission to become "part of Europe". The de facto autonomy of
the Kurdish region in northern Iraq has – understandably – encouraged
Kurds in Turkey, Iran and elsewhere in the region to seek greater
autonomy. Ankara has still to fully come to terms with the aspiration
of Turkey’s Kurdish citizens for a political identity of their own.

There have been unconfirmed reports that Turkey and Iran have an
agreed strategy to intervene if Iraq completely falls apart and the
Kurdish north becomes independent.

The most immediate threat to Turkey’s EU membership negotiations is
Cyprus. Under an existing customs union agreement Turkey should now
open its ports to trade with Cyprus. But the Turkish government does
not want to do this until Nicosia ends the isolation of the Turkish
Cypriots in the north of the island. Indeed the Turkish Cypriots
votes overwhelmingly both for EU membership and for the UN plan to
unite the island, which was rejected by the majority Greek Cypriot
community. This is the issue that could now threaten the entire
negotiations.

It is not difficult to imagine a crisis scenario where Turkey’s bid
to join the EU is rejected. The country slips back into the grip of
nationalists and militarists and a democratic beacon for the rest of
the Middle East is extinguished. Fortunately those who want to see
Turkey’s path to Europe kept open have time on their side. No one –
in Turkey or the EU – believes that the country will be remotely
ready to join for another 10 years. Indeed the idea is to keep the
negotiations going to allow Turkish reformers the time to complete
the democratisation and reform process.

It is essential that between now and the December EU summit a way is
found to defuse the Customs Union issue. Commissioner Rehn’s former
colleagues in the current Finnish government, which is running the
Presidency of the EU, have been pushing a sensible compromise plan
behind the scenes to avert a collapse of the negotiations and a crisis
in relations between Europe and Turkey. This would call for Turkey
to open its ports to Cypriot trade and for the economic benefits of
EU membership to be extended to the Turkish Cypriots.

This would strengthen the reformers’ hands in facing down the generals
who have become increasingly brazen in their desire to get their hands
back on power. It might encourage a root and branch revision of the
Turkish constitution, which should finally recognise the many different
national, cultural and confessional identities that – in reality –
are Turkey’s greatest treasure. Then Turkey might well inspire those
who want democratic change in the Middle East but who reject the
highjacking of their aspirations by Washington’s neo-conservatives
and militarists.

Keeping Turkey on track for eventual EU membership would have another
benefit. It would reinforce the already overwhelming case for the
European Union to get its own constitutional house in order. But –
pro-Turkey Eurosceptics should be clear – that will involve a new
European treaty, which promotes further European integration as well
as a strengthening and democratising of its key institutions. Without
this the EU will not be remotely capable of taking any more members.